PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 08/08/2026
P
PAU
Vs
23%
23%
54%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Annecy
Annecy
France: Ligue 2
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

PAU win
22.9%
Avg Implied 37.3% · @ 2.49
Edge
-14.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Pinnacle
2.61
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Marathonbet
2.53
888Sport
2.50
Draw
22.7%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.38
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Betfair
3.50
Betano
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Annecy win
54.4%
Avg Implied 35.2% · @ 2.64
Edge
+19.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.67
Pinnacle
2.66
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.62

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

P
PAU

Avg scored 1.10
Avg conceded 2.30
Avg total 3.40
50-5avg 1.1avg 2.3avg total 3.403221000041021151335H·SAIH·BASA·CLEH·MONA·LE A·AMIH·GUIA·ANNH·NANA·REI
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.871.291.791.621.94
vs Stronger (4)1.503.500.003.002.003.67
vs Similar (24)1.421.671.421.671.421.67
vs Weaker (2)2.001.001.002.003.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Annecy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AnnecyAnnecy

Avg scored 1.70
Avg conceded 1.40
Avg total 3.10
50-5avg 1.7avg 1.4avg total 3.120031204100051512112A·BASA·LE H·ESTA·SAIH·GUIH·MONA·NANH·PAUA·BOUH·ROD
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.131.560.881.571.43
vs Stronger (6)1.502.002.331.000.673.00
vs Similar (22)1.590.911.420.831.801.00
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.5%
@ 1.25+12.1%
Under 1.5
13.5%
@ 3.64-12.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.25
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.83
10Bet
3.70
Betano
3.70
Marathonbet
3.62
1xBet
3.62
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.6%
@ 1.83+14.9%
Under 2.5
33.4%
@ 1.96-14.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Under
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.8%
@ 3.00+13.6%
Under 3.5
55.2%
@ 1.36-13.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.10
888Sport
3.10
Pinnacle
3.02
Under
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Both teams to score
Yes
65.3%
@ 1.66+9.5%
No
34.7%
@ 2.10-9.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.62
No
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.16
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
William Hil
2.05

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%@ 6.35+2.8%
1-2
9.5%@ 9.63+4.8%
0-2
7.2%@ 13.07+3.7%
1-3
6.7%@ 19.86+4.4%
2-2
6.3%@ 12.57+2.7%
2-1
6.0%@ 9.15+1.0%
0-1
5.9%@ 9.00+0.9%
0-3
5.0%@ 26.71+3.3%
PAU goals ↓
Annecy goals →
01234
04.2%5.9%7.2%5.0%2.6%
13.4%9.9%9.5%6.7%3.5%
22.8%6.0%6.3%4.4%2.3%
31.3%2.6%2.8%1.9%1.0%
40.4%0.9%0.9%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = PAU goals (down), columns = Annecy goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Estac Troyes
2.03
Le Mans
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.75
Red Star
1.67
Rodez
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Reims
1.67
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Bastia
0.82
Amiens
0.75
Rouen
0.50
PAU is 0.19 points worse than Annecy in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.53).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Estac Troyes
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
Le Mans
1.39
Red Star
1.36
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Amiens
1.14
Clermont Foot
1.11
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Bastia
0.76
Rouen
0.50
PAU and Annecy are level in goals scored per game (both 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Le Mans
0.86
Montpellier
0.92
Estac Troyes
0.94
Rouen
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
Red Star
1.12
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Bastia
1.26
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
PAU
1.81
Amiens
1.92
PAU is 0.67 goals worse than Annecy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.81 vs 1.14).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
Estac Troyes
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Bastia
50%
Le Mans
49%
Amiens
47%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Rouen
43%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
PAU is 6.2 percentage points better than Annecy in terms of average possession (51% vs 45%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

P
PAU

For 3.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.0

🚩 Corners

1103456317147364354554711481197599A·REIH·NANA·ANNH·GUIA·AMIA·LE H·MONA·CLEH·BASH·SAI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

502221412231222213212415444443A·REIH·NANA·ANNH·GUIA·AMIA·LE H·MONA·CLEH·BASH·SAI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 15.9 · Total 26.8

⚠️ Fouls

39061081161911121515420101415202019141916192523302424353933A·REIH·NANA·ANNH·GUIA·AMIA·LE H·MONA·CLEH·BASH·SAI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AnnecyAnnecy

For 3.8 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.8

🚩 Corners

130944413313547262156531384481183118H·RODA·BOUH·PAUA·NANH·MONH·GUIA·SAIH·ESTA·LE A·BAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.6

🟨 Cards

70211111421161432322122627455A·BOUH·PAUA·NANH·MONH·GUIA·SAIH·ESTA·LE A·BASH·RED
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 11.8 · Total 27.3

⚠️ Fouls

3401281710196231117166181319201191119820272534332432312027H·RODA·BOUH·PAUA·NANH·MONH·GUIA·SAIH·ESTA·LE A·BAS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

P
PAU

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.39.79.04.44.54.326.125.826.5
vs Stronger (9)7.78.57.04.05.03.222.622.822.4
vs Similar (38)9.910.09.94.44.34.626.626.326.9
vs Weaker (3)7.08.06.55.06.04.531.026.033.5
% over line40%46%33%74%81%67%74%69%79%
% under line60%54%67%26%19%33%26%31%21%
This opponent (Annecy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AnnecyAnnecy

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.58.88.24.24.63.828.829.528.2
vs Stronger (11)7.17.86.24.65.83.229.931.727.8
vs Similar (37)8.99.28.74.14.24.028.528.628.3
vs Weaker (2)7.57.08.04.06.02.029.532.027.0
% over line36%40%32%66%72%60%86%84%88%
% under line64%60%68%34%28%40%14%16%12%
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Laval
10.1
Rodez
9.9
Grenoble
9.8
Montpellier
9.8
Nantes
9.7
Saint Etienne
9.6
Metz
9.6
Clermont Foot
9.4
Nancy
9.4
Dijon
9.4
PAU
9.3
Guingamp
9.1
Reims
9.1
Boulogne
8.9
Sochaux
8.8
Annecy
8.5
Dunkerque
8.4
RED Star FC 93
8.2

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
PAU
4.5
Nantes
4.5
Boulogne
4.5
Guingamp
4.4
Sochaux
4.3
Annecy
4.3
Rodez
4.2
Dijon
4.2
Laval
4.1
Montpellier
4.1
Nancy
4.1
Dunkerque
3.9
Reims
3.9
RED Star FC 93
3.9
Clermont Foot
3.9
Saint Etienne
3.8
Metz
3.6
Grenoble
3.4

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Annecy
28.8
Laval
28.8
Montpellier
28.6
Nancy
28.5
Guingamp
28.0
Sochaux
28.0
Boulogne
27.9
RED Star FC 93
26.9
Clermont Foot
26.4
Nantes
26.3
Dunkerque
26.3
PAU
26.1
Rodez
25.9
Saint Etienne
25.8
Grenoble
25.8
Dijon
25.3
Reims
24.4
Metz
22.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.0%
Under 9.5
60.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.8%
Under 3.5
45.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.4%
Under 21.5
14.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 1.586.5%1.25
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.25
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+12.1%
Over 21.5 fouls85.4%-------

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (34)
€118m
REI (30)
€109m
SE (29)
€82m
MET (31)
€80m
DUN (29)
€42m
MON (29)
€30m
ROD (27)
€22m
GRE (24)
€17m
GUI (22)
€15m
ANN (28)
€13m
NAN (30)
€13m
BOU (27)
€11m
SOC (23)
€8m
DIJ (25)
€7m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (11)
€50m
SE (9)
€46m
MET (11)
€37m
REI (13)
€37m
DUN (10)
€18m
MON (12)
€10m
GRE (7)
€7m
ROD (7)
€7m
GUI (6)
€5m
ANN (10)
€4m
NAN (11)
€4m
BOU (9)
€3m
SOC (7)
€3m
DIJ (8)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
REI (6)
€31m
NAN (7)
€23m
MET (6)
€21m
DUN (7)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
ROD (10)
€7m
MON (4)
€5m
GUI (6)
€4m
BOU (6)
€3m
GRE (5)
€2m
NAN (7)
€2m
ANN (6)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€2m
SOC (4)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (16)
€45m
REI (11)
€41m
SE (13)
€26m
MET (14)
€22m
MON (13)
€15m
DUN (12)
€11m
ROD (10)
€9m
GRE (12)
€7m
ANN (12)
€6m
GUI (10)
€6m
NAN (12)
€6m
BOU (12)
€5m
SOC (12)
€3m
DIJ (10)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

PAU vs Annecy · H/A from PAU
DateH/AGameScore
24/04/26AAnnecy Vs PAU5-1
09/08/25HPAU Vs Annecy2-0
28/03/25HPAU Vs Annecy1-0
01/11/24AAnnecy Vs PAU2-0
27/01/24AAnnecy Vs PAU0-0
23/09/23HPAU Vs Annecy0-3
28/01/23HPAU Vs Annecy2-2
15/10/22AAnnecy Vs PAU0-2

P
PAU

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26AReims Vs PAU5-3
02/05/26HPAU Vs Nancy1-3
24/04/26AAnnecy Vs PAU5-1
17/04/26HPAU Vs Guingamp2-1
10/04/26AAmiens Vs PAU0-1
06/04/26ALe Mans Vs PAU4-0
20/03/26HPAU Vs Montpellier0-0
13/03/26AClermont Foot Vs PAU0-1
06/03/26HPAU Vs Bastia2-2
28/02/26HPAU Vs Saint Etienne0-3

AnnecyAnnecy

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HANN Vs Rodez1-2
02/05/26ABoulogne Vs ANN1-2
24/04/26HANN Vs PAU5-1
17/04/26ANancy Vs ANN1-5
10/04/26HANN Vs Montpellier0-0
03/04/26HANN Vs Guingamp1-0
21/03/26ASaint Etienne Vs ANN4-0
16/03/26HANN Vs Estac Troyes1-2
07/03/26ALe Mans Vs ANN3-0
27/02/26ABastia Vs ANN0-2

📊 8. Overall Statistics

P
PAU
France: Ligue 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.24
HomeLDDWL1.19
AwayWLWLL1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%31%33%
AVG goals3.262.883.67
Over 2.5 %68%65%71%
Scored1.341.151.54
Conceded1.921.732.12
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet26%23%29%
Failed to Score20%27%12%
Annecy
Annecy
France: Ligue 2
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWL1.46
HomeLWDWL1.68
AwayWLLWW1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%44%40%
AVG goals2.502.442.56
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Scored1.321.521.12
Conceded1.180.921.44
BTTS50%64%36%
Clean Sheet32%36%28%
Failed to Score24%12%36%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
France: Ligue 2 2026-27 full table · PAU and Annecy highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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