PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 08/08/2026
Dunkerque
Dunkerque
Vs
46%
30%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Grenoble
Grenoble
France: Ligue 2
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dunkerque win
45.7%
Avg Implied 47.4% · @ 1.96
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Draw
29.7%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.44
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
1xBet
3.52
Marathonbet
3.52
Betfair
3.50
Betano
3.50
Pinnacle
3.45
Grenoble win
24.6%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.64
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Betano
3.75
Bet365
3.70
10Bet
3.70
Betfair
3.70
Pinnacle
3.69

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DunkerqueDunkerque

Avg scored 1.20
Avg conceded 1.90
Avg total 3.10
60-6avg 1.2avg 1.9avg total 3.111010115111202620123H·REIA·REDA·REDA·ESTH·RODA·SAIH·LAVA·BOUH·GREA·NAN
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.201.430.861.691.50
vs Stronger (4)1.251.001.000.501.501.50
vs Similar (24)1.461.211.550.911.381.46
vs Weaker (2)3.501.501.001.006.002.00
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Grenoble) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrenobleGrenoble

Avg scored 0.90
Avg conceded 1.00
Avg total 1.90
30-3avg 0.9avg 1.0avg total 1.900010023221112111010H·BOUA·RODH·SAIA·LAVH·CLEA·GUIA·MONH·LE A·DUNH·EST
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.130.730.871.071.40
vs Stronger (5)0.801.200.001.002.001.50
vs Similar (23)0.961.091.000.910.921.25
vs Weaker (2)0.501.500.000.001.003.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunkerque) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.3%
@ 1.28-3.4%
Under 1.5
30.7%
@ 3.42+3.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betano
1.30
Under
Betano
3.55
Pinnacle
3.47
10Bet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.38
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.7%
@ 1.90-7.9%
Under 2.5
58.3%
@ 1.88+7.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.95
888Sport
1.91
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.87
Under
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Bet365
1.85
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.1%
@ 3.21-8.0%
Under 3.5
78.9%
@ 1.32+8.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
888Sport
3.40
Pinnacle
3.34
10Bet
3.25
Betano
3.20
Under
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Both teams to score
Yes
47.6%
@ 1.73-5.9%
No
52.4%
@ 2.00+5.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
No
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 6.36+6.9%
1-0
12.0%@ 7.24+5.8%
0-0
10.8%@ 9.57+6.1%
2-0
9.2%@ 9.32+4.4%
2-1
8.8%@ 8.12+3.3%
0-1
7.9%@ 10.32+3.5%
1-2
6.1%@ 11.57+2.2%
0-2
4.4%@ 18.50+1.9%
Dunkerque goals ↓
Grenoble goals →
01234
011%7.9%4.4%1.4%0.3%
112%14%6.1%1.9%0.5%
29.2%8.8%4.2%1.4%0.3%
34.3%4.1%2.0%0.6%0.2%
41.5%1.4%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dunkerque goals (down), columns = Grenoble goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Estac Troyes
2.03
Le Mans
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.75
Red Star
1.67
Rodez
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Reims
1.67
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Bastia
0.82
Amiens
0.75
Rouen
0.50
Dunkerque is 0.19 points better than Grenoble in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.08).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Estac Troyes
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
Le Mans
1.39
Red Star
1.36
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Amiens
1.14
Clermont Foot
1.11
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Bastia
0.76
Rouen
0.50
Dunkerque is 0.64 goals better than Grenoble in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 0.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Le Mans
0.86
Montpellier
0.92
Estac Troyes
0.94
Rouen
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
Red Star
1.12
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Bastia
1.26
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
PAU
1.81
Amiens
1.92
Dunkerque is 0.08 goals worse than Grenoble in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.19).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
Estac Troyes
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Bastia
50%
Le Mans
49%
Amiens
47%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Rouen
43%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Dunkerque is 13.3 percentage points better than Grenoble in terms of average possession (57% vs 44%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

DunkerqueDunkerque

For 3.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 7.0

🚩 Corners

9053835522683633448887889338A·NANH·GREA·BOUH·LAVA·SAIH·RODA·ESTA·REDA·REDH·REI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

602231213212431121222534363234A·NANH·GREA·BOUH·LAVA·SAIH·RODA·ESTA·REDA·REDH·REI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 12.6 · Total 25.2

⚠️ Fouls

3201179714911121616816151415161516121318162323322429313125A·NANH·GREA·BOUH·LAVA·SAIH·RODA·ESTA·REDA·REDH·REI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

GrenobleGrenoble

For 2.3 · Against 5.7 · Total 8.0

🚩 Corners

12021081414153457541744128556712988H·ESTA·DUNH·LE A·MONA·GUIH·CLEA·LAVH·SAIA·RODH·BOU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7

🟨 Cards

5013231113222231223211542545353H·ESTA·DUNH·LE A·MONA·GUIH·CLEA·LAVH·SAIA·RODH·BOU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 11.9 · Total 24.8

⚠️ Fouls

350115791421131021121214111310111711131316163523332624212826H·ESTA·DUNH·LE A·MONA·GUIH·CLEA·LAVH·SAIA·RODH·BOU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunkerqueDunkerque

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.49.37.53.93.84.126.324.827.7
vs Stronger (5)6.87.75.54.03.74.525.221.031.5
vs Similar (41)8.69.37.93.93.93.926.124.627.6
vs Weaker (4)8.211.05.54.52.56.529.233.025.5
% over line32%48%16%56%64%48%84%80%88%
% under line68%52%84%44%36%52%16%20%12%
This opponent (Grenoble) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrenobleGrenoble

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.89.89.83.42.93.925.826.824.8
vs Stronger (8)9.89.610.03.02.83.326.427.225.0
vs Similar (40)9.89.99.73.42.93.825.626.724.6
vs Weaker (2)10.08.012.05.53.08.026.526.027.0
% over line54%48%60%44%40%48%78%84%72%
% under line46%52%40%56%60%52%22%16%28%
This opponent (Dunkerque) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Laval
10.1
Rodez
9.9
Grenoble
9.8
Montpellier
9.8
Nantes
9.7
Saint Etienne
9.6
Metz
9.6
Clermont Foot
9.4
Nancy
9.4
Dijon
9.4
PAU
9.3
Guingamp
9.1
Reims
9.1
Boulogne
8.9
Sochaux
8.8
Annecy
8.5
Dunkerque
8.4
RED Star FC 93
8.2

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
PAU
4.5
Nantes
4.5
Boulogne
4.5
Guingamp
4.4
Sochaux
4.3
Annecy
4.3
Rodez
4.2
Dijon
4.2
Laval
4.1
Montpellier
4.1
Nancy
4.1
Dunkerque
3.9
Reims
3.9
RED Star FC 93
3.9
Clermont Foot
3.9
Saint Etienne
3.8
Metz
3.6
Grenoble
3.4

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Annecy
28.8
Laval
28.8
Montpellier
28.6
Nancy
28.5
Guingamp
28.0
Sochaux
28.0
Boulogne
27.9
RED Star FC 93
26.9
Clermont Foot
26.4
Nantes
26.3
Dunkerque
26.3
PAU
26.1
Rodez
25.9
Saint Etienne
25.8
Grenoble
25.8
Dijon
25.3
Reims
24.4
Metz
22.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.8%
Under 9.5
57.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.6%
Under 3.5
40.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.1%
Under 21.5
23.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 3.578.9%1.32
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
+8.0%
Over 21.5 fouls76.1%-------

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (34)
€118m
REI (30)
€109m
SE (29)
€82m
MET (31)
€80m
DUN (29)
€42m
MON (29)
€30m
ROD (27)
€22m
GRE (24)
€17m
GUI (22)
€15m
ANN (28)
€13m
NAN (30)
€13m
BOU (27)
€11m
SOC (23)
€8m
DIJ (25)
€7m
Dunkerque's squad is €26m more valuable than Grenoble's (€42m vs €17m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (11)
€50m
SE (9)
€46m
MET (11)
€37m
REI (13)
€37m
DUN (10)
€18m
MON (12)
€10m
GRE (7)
€7m
ROD (7)
€7m
GUI (6)
€5m
ANN (10)
€4m
NAN (11)
€4m
BOU (9)
€3m
SOC (7)
€3m
DIJ (8)
€2m
Dunkerque's attack is €11m more valuable than Grenoble's (€18m vs €7m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
REI (6)
€31m
NAN (7)
€23m
MET (6)
€21m
DUN (7)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
ROD (10)
€7m
MON (4)
€5m
GUI (6)
€4m
BOU (6)
€3m
GRE (5)
€2m
NAN (7)
€2m
ANN (6)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€2m
SOC (4)
€2m
Dunkerque's midfield is €10m more valuable than Grenoble's (€13m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (16)
€45m
REI (11)
€41m
SE (13)
€26m
MET (14)
€22m
MON (13)
€15m
DUN (12)
€11m
ROD (10)
€9m
GRE (12)
€7m
ANN (12)
€6m
GUI (10)
€6m
NAN (12)
€6m
BOU (12)
€5m
SOC (12)
€3m
DIJ (10)
€3m
Dunkerque's defence is €4m more valuable than Grenoble's (€11m vs €7m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Dunkerque vs Grenoble · H/A from DUN
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26HDUN Vs Grenoble0-1
13/09/25AGrenoble Vs DUN1-0
18/04/25HDUN Vs Grenoble2-0
08/11/24AGrenoble Vs DUN0-1
13/01/24AGrenoble Vs DUN2-2
16/09/23HDUN Vs Grenoble0-0
16/04/22HDUN Vs Grenoble0-3
06/11/21AGrenoble Vs DUN1-0

DunkerqueDunkerque

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26ANancy Vs DUN3-2
02/05/26HDUN Vs Grenoble0-1
27/04/26ABoulogne Vs DUN2-6
20/04/26HDUN Vs Laval0-2
11/04/26ASaint Etienne Vs DUN2-1
03/04/26HDUN Vs Rodez1-1
21/03/26AEstac Troyes Vs DUN5-1
14/03/26ARed Star Vs DUN1-0
14/03/26ARED Star FC 93 Vs DUN1-0
09/03/26HDUN Vs Reims1-1

GrenobleGrenoble

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HGRE Vs Estac Troyes1-0
02/05/26ADunkerque Vs GRE0-1
25/04/26HGRE Vs Le Mans1-1
17/04/26AMontpellier Vs GRE2-1
10/04/26AGuingamp Vs GRE1-1
03/04/26HGRE Vs Clermont Foot2-2
20/03/26ALaval Vs GRE3-2
14/03/26HGRE Vs Saint Etienne0-0
06/03/26ARodez Vs GRE1-0
27/02/26HGRE Vs Boulogne0-0

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Dunkerque
Dunkerque
France: Ligue 2
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.32
HomeDDDLL1.52
AwayLLLWL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals2.702.482.92
Over 2.5 %48%40%56%
Scored1.461.521.40
Conceded1.240.961.52
BTTS52%44%60%
Clean Sheet24%36%12%
Failed to Score30%28%32%
Grenoble
Grenoble
France: Ligue 2
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWW1.16
HomeDDDDW1.36
AwayLLDLW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%28%24%
AVG goals2.302.002.60
Over 2.5 %46%44%48%
Scored1.060.961.16
Conceded1.241.041.44
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet24%36%12%
Failed to Score34%32%36%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
France: Ligue 2 2026-27 full table · Dunkerque and Grenoble highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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