This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
De Graafschap
Avg scored2.10
Avg conceded1.50
Avg total3.60
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.57
2.20
1.47
1.93
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
2.00
1.67
1.67
1.33
2.33
2.00
vs Similar (24)
2.08
1.54
2.33
1.50
1.83
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.1%
@ 1.17+4.3%
Under 1.5
15.9%
@ 4.62-4.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Pinnacle
4.83
888Sport
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.45
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.3%
@ 1.57+3.0%
Under 2.5
37.7%
@ 2.28-3.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.61
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
888Sport
1.57
Under
Bet365
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.35
888Sport
2.30
Pinnacle
2.28
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.0%
@ 2.35+0.1%
Under 3.5
60.0%
@ 1.56-0.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.39
888Sport
2.38
10Bet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Both teams to score
Yes
64.7%
@ 1.46+1.6%
No
35.3%
@ 2.50-1.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
No
Betano
2.60
William Hil
2.50
Bet365
2.50
888Sport
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%@ 6.86+4.7%
1-2
8.8%@ 8.73+3.6%
2-1
7.8%@ 10.50+3.4%
2-2
6.6%@ 10.57+2.3%
0-2
5.9%@ 12.50+2.2%
0-1
5.8%@ 10.43+1.4%
0-0
5.1%@ 13.01+1.5%
1-0
5.0%@ 12.91+1.5%
Helmond Sport goals ↓
De Graafschap goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
5.8%
5.9%
3.3%
1.4%
1
5.0%
11%
8.8%
5.0%
2.1%
2
4.6%
7.8%
6.6%
3.8%
1.6%
3
2.3%
3.9%
3.3%
1.9%
0.8%
4
0.9%
1.5%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Helmond Sport goals (down), columns = De Graafschap goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ADO Den Haag
2.34
Cambuur
2.05
Willem II
1.84
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
FC Volendam
1.50
Vitesse
1.47
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
VVV Venlo
1.18
Emmen
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Helmond Sport is 0.57 points worse than De Graafschap in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ADO Den Haag
2.37
Almere City FC
2.02
Cambuur
1.97
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Jong PSV U21
1.74
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
Willem II
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Helmond Sport is 0.82 goals worse than De Graafschap in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
ADO Den Haag
0.97
Willem II
1.05
Cambuur
1.26
Roda
1.40
Vitesse
1.45
Dordrecht
1.47
Waalwijk
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong Utrecht
1.63
FC OSS
1.68
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
Jong Ajax
1.92
MVV
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Helmond Sport is 0.06 goals worse than De Graafschap in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ADO Den Haag
60%
Cambuur
58%
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Willem II
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Helmond Sport is 7.1 percentage points worse than De Graafschap in terms of average possession (49% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Helmond Sport
For 5.8 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 11.3 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
De Graafschap
For 5.1 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Helmond Sport
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (38)
10.8
11.2
10.4
3.2
3.2
3.2
25.3
25.4
25.3
vs Stronger (14)
10.9
12.7
9.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
27.9
28.0
27.7
vs Similar (24)
10.8
10.3
11.2
2.8
2.8
2.8
23.9
23.8
23.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
74%
47%
45%
42%
47%
79%
84%
74%
% under line
39%
26%
53%
55%
58%
53%
21%
16%
26%
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
De Graafschap
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
11.3
12.4
3.0
2.9
3.1
22.6
21.6
23.6
vs Stronger (11)
9.9
8.8
10.8
2.9
2.6
3.2
24.3
21.4
26.7
vs Similar (39)
12.5
12.1
12.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
22.1
21.7
22.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
69%
57%
80%
36%
33%
38%
54%
48%
60%
% under line
31%
43%
20%
64%
67%
62%
46%
52%
40%
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
De Graafschap
11.9
Den Bosch
11.8
FC OSS
11.8
Dordrecht
11.3
Jong PSV U21
11.2
FC Eindhoven
10.9
Helmond Sport
10.8
Jong AZ
10.8
Almere City FC
10.8
Emmen
10.7
FC Volendam
10.6
MVV
10.5
Waalwijk
10.4
Heracles
10.4
Jong Ajax
10.3
VVV Venlo
10.3
Roda
10.3
Vitesse
10.1
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dordrecht
4.5
Vitesse
4.4
FC OSS
4.4
Jong Ajax
3.8
Den Bosch
3.8
FC Volendam
3.6
Emmen
3.6
Heracles
3.5
NAC Breda
3.4
Jong AZ
3.4
VVV Venlo
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.3
Jong PSV U21
3.3
FC Eindhoven
3.3
MVV
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
Waalwijk
3.1
Roda
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.1
Almere City FC
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.9
Vitesse
26.4
Helmond Sport
25.3
Jong Utrecht
25.3
Dordrecht
25.3
Jong Ajax
24.3
Roda
24.3
Emmen
24.2
Jong PSV U21
24.2
Heracles
24.2
Jong AZ
23.3
VVV Venlo
23.3
FC Eindhoven
23.3
Den Bosch
23.1
MVV
22.8
NAC Breda
22.5
De Graafschap
22.5
Waalwijk
22.3
Almere City FC
20.6
FC Volendam
20.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
72.8%
Under 9.5
27.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.3%
Under 21.5
33.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
🔥 5. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 1.5
84.1%
1.17
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
+4.3%
Over 9.5 corners
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
💰 6. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (32)
€14m
HER (34)
€14m
DOR (34)
€14m
NB (26)
€11m
ACF (28)
€10m
EMM (33)
€9m
DG (22)
€9m
ROD (28)
€7m
WAA (25)
€7m
DB (24)
€7m
VV (29)
€6m
FE (27)
€6m
MVV (28)
€6m
HS (23)
€6m
VIT (25)
€6m
FO (28)
€5m
Helmond Sport's squad is €3m less valuable than De Graafschap's (€6m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HER (14)
€7m
DOR (15)
€7m
ACF (10)
€6m
DG (11)
€5m
FV (12)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
EMM (12)
€4m
ROD (12)
€3m
WAA (10)
€3m
DB (9)
€2m
FE (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
HS (8)
€2m
FO (11)
€2m
VIT (8)
€2m
MVV (11)
€2m
Helmond Sport's attack is €3m less valuable than De Graafschap's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (7)
€3m
HER (6)
€3m
EMM (8)
€2m
NB (4)
€2m
ROD (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DB (5)
€2m
FE (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
VIT (5)
€1m
ACF (5)
€1m
FO (4)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
DG (3)
€1m
VV (5)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
Helmond Sport and De Graafschap have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (13)
€7m
DOR (14)
€6m
NB (12)
€5m
HER (14)
€4m
WAA (12)
€4m
ACF (13)
€3m
EMM (13)
€3m
VV (14)
€3m
MVV (13)
€3m
ROD (11)
€3m
HS (10)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
VIT (12)
€2m
FE (12)
€2m
FO (13)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
Helmond Sport and De Graafschap have a similar defence value (both €2m).
🤝 7. Games History
Head-to-head
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap · H/A from HS
Date
H/A
Game
Score
31/01/26
H
HS Vs De Graafschap
0-0
21/11/25
A
De Graafschap Vs HS
3-1
Helmond Sport
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
24/04/26
A
FC Eindhoven Vs HS
1-0
17/04/26
H
HS Vs VVV Venlo
2-0
10/04/26
A
MVV Vs HS
0-0
06/04/26
H
HS Vs Waalwijk
2-2
03/04/26
A
Jong AZ Vs HS
2-0
20/03/26
A
Roda Vs HS
1-1
16/03/26
H
HS Vs Cambuur
0-1
13/03/26
A
Jong Utrecht Vs HS
1-0
06/03/26
H
HS Vs FC OSS
1-1
27/02/26
A
Jong Ajax Vs HS
5-1
De Graafschap
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
09/05/26
H
DG Vs Almere City FC
2-2
06/05/26
A
Almere City FC Vs DG
3-1
24/04/26
A
Emmen Vs DG
1-0
17/04/26
H
DG Vs Cambuur
3-1
11/04/26
A
VVV Venlo Vs DG
3-3
06/04/26
H
DG Vs Jong AZ
5-0
03/04/26
A
FC Eindhoven Vs DG
2-2
28/03/26
A
Willem II Vs DG
0-2
22/03/26
H
DG Vs ADO Den Haag
1-2
14/03/26
H
DG Vs Dordrecht
2-1
📊 8. Overall Statistics
Helmond Sport
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
LDDWL
1.03
Home
LDLDW
1.53
Away
LDLDL
0.53
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
26%
42%
11%
AVG goals
2.74
3.11
2.37
Over 2.5 %
53%
63%
42%
Scored
1.11
1.63
0.58
Conceded
1.63
1.47
1.79
BTTS
53%
68%
37%
Clean Sheet
24%
26%
21%
Failed to Score
32%
11%
53%
De Graafschap
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
DWLLD
1.42
Home
WLWWD
1.58
Away
WDDLL
1.27
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
40%
46%
35%
AVG goals
3.50
3.50
3.50
Over 2.5 %
68%
67%
69%
Scored
1.78
1.92
1.65
Conceded
1.72
1.58
1.85
BTTS
72%
75%
69%
Clean Sheet
16%
21%
12%
Failed to Score
14%
4%
23%
🏆 9. League Table
Record
Goals
Props / game
Squad value €m
Strengths
Rank
Team
MP
Win%
PPG
GF
GA
GD
G/G
O1.5
O2.5
O3.5
Cor
Cor O%
Crd
Crd O%
Fls
Fls O%
Tot
Att
Mid
Def
Att/g
Def/g
Poss%
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026-27 full table · Helmond Sport and De Graafschap highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.
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