This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Avg scored1.50
Avg conceded1.20
Avg total2.70
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.77
1.47
1.73
1.27
1.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
2.45
1.00
2.43
0.25
2.50
vs Similar (14)
1.79
1.57
1.83
1.50
1.75
1.62
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.80
2.00
0.00
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.3%
@ 1.28+6.6%
Under 1.5
20.7%
@ 3.42-6.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.59
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
888Sport
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.9%
@ 1.92+5.6%
Under 2.5
45.1%
@ 1.86-5.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
SBO
1.99
1xBet
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Under
1xBet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.5%
@ 3.23+3.7%
Under 3.5
67.5%
@ 1.31-3.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
BetVictor
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Betano
3.30
888Sport
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Under
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.30
Both teams to score
Yes
56.2%
@ 1.76+3.6%
No
43.8%
@ 1.95-3.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
888Sport
1.75
No
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
888Sport
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%@ 6.34+4.9%
2-1
9.8%@ 8.09+4.2%
2-0
9.1%@ 8.66+3.9%
1-0
9.0%@ 6.83+2.4%
0-0
6.7%@ 9.68+2.0%
1-2
5.9%@ 12.47+2.3%
3-1
5.9%@ 14.34+2.7%
3-0
5.4%@ 15.11+2.4%
Guimaraes goals ↓
Arouca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
5.0%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
1
9.0%
12%
5.9%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.1%
9.8%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.4%
5.9%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.4%
2.6%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Guimaraes goals (down), columns = Arouca goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.56
Sporting CP
2.41
Sp Lisbon
2.41
Benfica
2.33
SC Braga
1.69
Famalicao
1.56
GIL Vicente
1.42
Moreirense
1.19
Guimaraes
1.17
Arouca
1.17
Alverca
1.08
Estoril
1.08
Santa Clara
1.00
Rio Ave
1.00
Nacional
0.94
Casa Pia
0.89
Estrela
0.83
Tondela
0.81
AVS
0.61
Torreense
0.50
Guimaraes and Arouca are level in average points per game (both 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Sp Lisbon
2.62
Benfica
2.14
FC Porto
1.92
SC Braga
1.86
Estoril
1.50
GIL Vicente
1.33
Arouca
1.33
Famalicao
1.19
Guimaraes
1.14
Nacional
1.08
Estrela
1.06
Moreirense
1.03
Alverca
1.00
Rio Ave
1.00
Santa Clara
0.97
Casa Pia
0.87
Tondela
0.81
AVS
0.78
Torreense
0.00
Guimaraes is 0.19 goals worse than Arouca in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.56
Sporting CP
0.71
Sp Lisbon
0.71
Benfica
0.75
Famalicao
0.89
Torreense
1.00
SC Braga
1.08
GIL Vicente
1.17
Santa Clara
1.31
Nacional
1.42
Moreirense
1.53
Alverca
1.61
Casa Pia
1.63
Guimaraes
1.67
Tondela
1.67
Estoril
1.69
Estrela
1.69
Rio Ave
1.81
Arouca
2.00
AVS
2.06
Guimaraes is 0.33 goals better than Arouca in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Torreense
60%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Tondela
44%
Casa Pia
41%
AVS
39%
Guimaraes is 1.2 percentage points better than Arouca in terms of average possession (51% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Guimaraes
For 5.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 13.2 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arouca
For 3.7 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 11.3 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Guimaraes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.5
8.4
5.2
5.6
4.7
29.2
28.8
29.5
vs Stronger (14)
8.6
8.4
8.9
5.6
7.4
3.7
28.2
29.1
27.3
vs Similar (9)
11.0
11.0
11.0
5.6
5.5
5.6
29.6
27.5
31.2
vs Weaker (27)
8.4
9.6
7.1
4.8
4.8
4.8
29.6
29.1
30.1
% over line
42%
56%
28%
72%
68%
76%
90%
92%
88%
% under line
58%
44%
72%
28%
32%
24%
10%
8%
12%
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.7
8.6
5.5
6.3
4.7
26.2
27.7
24.6
vs Stronger (19)
9.9
10.7
9.3
5.7
7.7
4.0
24.4
26.8
22.3
vs Similar (22)
9.0
9.4
8.4
5.1
5.3
4.8
26.8
27.6
25.8
vs Weaker (9)
7.9
8.4
7.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
28.4
29.4
27.2
% over line
42%
50%
33%
76%
85%
67%
78%
88%
67%
% under line
58%
50%
67%
24%
15%
33%
22%
12%
33%
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.6
Nacional
10.6
Rio Ave
10.2
Benfica
10.0
Sporting CP
9.9
Casa Pia
9.8
Academico Viseu
9.8
Maritimo
9.8
GIL Vicente
9.2
Estrela
9.2
Santa Clara
9.2
Arouca
9.1
Guimaraes
8.9
Estoril
8.9
Alverca
8.8
FC Porto
8.5
SC Braga
8.2
Moreirense
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maritimo
6.6
Santa Clara
6.4
Academico Viseu
6.1
FC Porto
5.6
Famalicao
5.5
Arouca
5.5
Casa Pia
5.5
Estrela
5.5
Nacional
5.5
Benfica
5.2
Guimaraes
5.2
SC Braga
5.0
Rio Ave
5.0
Moreirense
5.0
Sporting CP
5.0
GIL Vicente
4.9
Alverca
4.7
Estoril
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.7
Estrela
30.2
Santa Clara
30.1
Maritimo
29.9
Moreirense
29.5
Guimaraes
29.2
Academico Viseu
29.1
Casa Pia
29.0
GIL Vicente
28.1
Rio Ave
27.3
Nacional
27.1
Estoril
27.0
Arouca
26.2
Benfica
26.1
Alverca
26.1
FC Porto
26.0
Sporting CP
25.6
SC Braga
24.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.8%
@ 2.00-5.7%
Under 9.5
59.2%
@ 1.74+5.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.2%
Under 3.5
24.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.0%
Under 21.5
14.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
🔥 5. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 21.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.3%
1.28
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
+6.6%
Over 3.5 cards
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
💰 6. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (22)
€460m
BEN (19)
€288m
SB (35)
€215m
FAM (27)
€109m
GUI (34)
€73m
GV (30)
€61m
EST (26)
€57m
RA (36)
€53m
ALV (32)
€52m
SC (31)
€46m
CP (34)
€34m
ARO (33)
€32m
EST (39)
€29m
MOR (25)
€28m
NAC (32)
€27m
AV (35)
€18m
MAR (26)
€15m
Guimaraes's squad is €41m more valuable than Arouca's (€73m vs €32m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (7)
€190m
BEN (6)
€105m
SB (13)
€100m
FAM (11)
€51m
GV (14)
€37m
GUI (12)
€34m
EST (8)
€25m
RA (12)
€21m
ALV (11)
€18m
SC (11)
€17m
NAC (11)
€12m
ARO (11)
€12m
MOR (8)
€10m
CP (11)
€9m
AV (15)
€8m
EST (15)
€7m
MAR (10)
€6m
Guimaraes's attack is €22m more valuable than Arouca's (€34m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEN (6)
€93m
SC (4)
€72m
SB (9)
€46m
GUI (8)
€26m
FAM (5)
€17m
ALV (9)
€13m
CP (7)
€10m
EST (5)
€10m
SC (6)
€10m
ARO (7)
€9m
MOR (6)
€8m
EST (7)
€7m
RA (7)
€5m
GV (4)
€5m
NAC (8)
€4m
MAR (6)
€2m
AV (6)
€2m
Guimaraes's midfield is €17m more valuable than Arouca's (€26m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (11)
€198m
BEN (7)
€90m
SB (13)
€69m
FAM (11)
€41m
RA (17)
€26m
ALV (12)
€22m
EST (13)
€22m
GV (12)
€19m
SC (14)
€19m
EST (17)
€15m
CP (16)
€15m
GUI (14)
€13m
ARO (15)
€11m
MOR (11)
€10m
NAC (13)
€10m
AV (14)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
Guimaraes's defence is €2m more valuable than Arouca's (€13m vs €11m).
🤝 7. Games History
Head-to-head
Guimaraes vs Arouca · H/A from GUI
Date
H/A
Game
Score
07/02/26
A
Arouca Vs GUI
3-2
30/08/25
H
GUI Vs Arouca
1-1
18/01/25
H
GUI Vs Arouca
2-2
12/08/24
A
Arouca Vs GUI
0-1
18/05/24
A
Arouca Vs GUI
1-3
15/01/24
H
GUI Vs Arouca
2-1
11/03/23
H
GUI Vs Arouca
0-2
18/09/22
A
Arouca Vs GUI
2-2
Guimaraes
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
16/05/26
A
Nacional Vs GUI
2-0
11/05/26
H
GUI Vs Casa Pia
0-1
04/05/26
A
Sporting CP Vs GUI
5-1
04/05/26
A
Sp Lisbon Vs GUI
5-1
25/04/26
H
GUI Vs Rio Ave
2-0
18/04/26
A
GIL Vicente Vs GUI
0-1
11/04/26
A
AVS Vs GUI
1-1
03/04/26
H
GUI Vs Tondela
5-0
21/03/26
A
Benfica Vs GUI
3-0
14/03/26
H
GUI Vs Famalicao
1-2
Arouca
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
16/05/26
H
ARO Vs Tondela
3-1
11/05/26
A
GIL Vicente Vs ARO
1-3
02/05/26
H
ARO Vs Santa Clara
2-2
24/04/26
A
Alverca Vs ARO
2-1
19/04/26
H
ARO Vs Estrela
1-0
12/04/26
A
SC Braga Vs ARO
1-0
06/04/26
H
ARO Vs Estoril
3-2
21/03/26
A
Moreirense Vs ARO
0-1
14/03/26
H
ARO Vs Benfica
1-2
06/03/26
A
Famalicao Vs ARO
1-0
📊 8. Overall Statistics
Guimaraes
Portugal: Primeira Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
WLLLL
1.34
Home
DLWWL
1.64
Away
DWLLL
1.04
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
38%
48%
28%
AVG goals
2.60
2.56
2.64
Over 2.5 %
46%
52%
40%
Scored
1.16
1.44
0.88
Conceded
1.44
1.12
1.76
BTTS
42%
44%
40%
Clean Sheet
34%
40%
28%
Failed to Score
32%
24%
40%
Arouca
Portugal: Primeira Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
WLDWW
1.16
Home
LWWDW
1.35
Away
LWLLW
0.96
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
30%
35%
25%
AVG goals
3.10
3.04
3.17
Over 2.5 %
62%
62%
62%
Scored
1.30
1.46
1.12
Conceded
1.80
1.58
2.04
BTTS
58%
62%
54%
Clean Sheet
20%
19%
21%
Failed to Score
26%
23%
29%
🏆 9. League Table
Record
Goals
Props / game
Squad value €m
Strengths
Rank
Team
MP
Win%
PPG
GF
GA
GD
G/G
O1.5
O2.5
O3.5
Cor
Cor O%
Crd
Crd O%
Fls
Fls O%
Tot
Att
Mid
Def
Att/g
Def/g
Poss%
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026-27 full table · Guimaraes and Arouca highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.
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