This opponent (Alverca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alverca
Avg scored1.20
Avg conceded1.70
Avg total2.90
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.57
1.13
1.47
0.87
1.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
2.08
1.00
2.20
0.29
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.43
1.38
1.38
1.33
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.4%
@ 1.16-4.3%
Under 1.5
23.6%
@ 4.84+4.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
888Sport
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.80
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.2%
@ 1.53-9.7%
Under 2.5
48.8%
@ 2.39+9.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.54
888Sport
1.50
Under
Betano
2.47
888Sport
2.45
Pinnacle
2.43
10Bet
2.38
Bet365
2.35
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.1%
@ 2.40-10.4%
Under 3.5
70.9%
@ 1.57+10.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
1xBet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Pinnacle
2.38
10Bet
2.38
888Sport
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Both teams to score
Yes
39.6%
@ 2.31-0.7%
No
60.4%
@ 1.56+0.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.40
888Sport
2.30
William Hil
2.30
1xBet
2.26
No
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.57
888Sport
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
15.1%@ 5.61+7.0%
1-0
13.3%@ 6.84+6.7%
3-0
10.8%@ 6.37+3.7%
1-1
9.0%@ 12.13+5.2%
2-1
8.7%@ 9.16+3.8%
0-0
7.4%@ 15.79+4.5%
3-1
6.2%@ 10.98+2.1%
4-0
5.8%@ 9.59+1.1%
FC Porto goals ↓
Alverca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
3.0%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
1
13%
9.0%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
2
15%
8.7%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
11%
6.2%
1.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
5.8%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Porto goals (down), columns = Alverca goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.56
Sporting CP
2.41
Sp Lisbon
2.41
Benfica
2.33
SC Braga
1.69
Famalicao
1.56
GIL Vicente
1.42
Moreirense
1.19
Guimaraes
1.17
Arouca
1.17
Alverca
1.08
Estoril
1.08
Santa Clara
1.00
Rio Ave
1.00
Nacional
0.94
Casa Pia
0.89
Estrela
0.83
Tondela
0.81
AVS
0.61
Torreense
0.50
FC Porto is 1.47 points better than Alverca in terms of average points per game (2.56 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Sp Lisbon
2.62
Benfica
2.14
FC Porto
1.92
SC Braga
1.86
Estoril
1.50
GIL Vicente
1.33
Arouca
1.33
Famalicao
1.19
Guimaraes
1.14
Nacional
1.08
Estrela
1.06
Moreirense
1.03
Alverca
1.00
Rio Ave
1.00
Santa Clara
0.97
Casa Pia
0.87
Tondela
0.81
AVS
0.78
Torreense
0.00
FC Porto is 0.92 goals better than Alverca in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.56
Sporting CP
0.71
Sp Lisbon
0.71
Benfica
0.75
Famalicao
0.89
Torreense
1.00
SC Braga
1.08
GIL Vicente
1.17
Santa Clara
1.31
Nacional
1.42
Moreirense
1.53
Alverca
1.61
Casa Pia
1.63
Guimaraes
1.67
Tondela
1.67
Estoril
1.69
Estrela
1.69
Rio Ave
1.81
Arouca
2.00
AVS
2.06
FC Porto is 1.06 goals better than Alverca in terms of goals conceded per game (0.56 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Torreense
60%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Tondela
44%
Casa Pia
41%
AVS
39%
FC Porto is 10.3 percentage points better than Alverca in terms of average possession (55% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FP
FC Porto
For 5.7 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 12.7 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alverca
For 5.3 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.7 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FP
FC Porto
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.6
8.4
5.5
5.0
6.0
26.0
25.2
26.9
vs Stronger (4)
8.2
7.5
9.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
24.5
23.5
25.5
vs Similar (10)
8.3
8.6
8.0
5.7
5.0
6.4
25.3
24.2
26.4
vs Weaker (36)
8.6
8.7
8.5
5.1
4.7
5.6
26.4
25.6
27.2
% over line
32%
32%
32%
80%
72%
88%
76%
68%
84%
% under line
68%
68%
68%
20%
28%
12%
24%
32%
16%
This opponent (Alverca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alverca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (36)
8.8
7.7
9.9
4.6
3.9
5.3
26.1
27.1
25.1
vs Stronger (14)
7.6
5.6
9.7
3.9
4.3
3.4
24.9
26.1
23.6
vs Similar (18)
10.1
9.7
10.4
5.4
3.9
7.0
27.2
28.3
26.0
vs Weaker (4)
7.2
6.0
8.5
3.5
3.0
4.0
25.2
24.5
26.0
% over line
44%
22%
67%
58%
50%
67%
69%
78%
61%
% under line
56%
78%
33%
42%
50%
33%
31%
22%
39%
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.6
Nacional
10.6
Rio Ave
10.2
Benfica
10.0
Sporting CP
9.9
Casa Pia
9.8
Academico Viseu
9.8
Maritimo
9.8
GIL Vicente
9.2
Estrela
9.2
Santa Clara
9.2
Arouca
9.1
Guimaraes
8.9
Estoril
8.9
Alverca
8.8
FC Porto
8.5
SC Braga
8.2
Moreirense
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maritimo
6.6
Santa Clara
6.4
Academico Viseu
6.1
FC Porto
5.6
Famalicao
5.5
Arouca
5.5
Casa Pia
5.5
Estrela
5.5
Nacional
5.5
Benfica
5.2
Guimaraes
5.2
SC Braga
5.0
Rio Ave
5.0
Moreirense
5.0
Sporting CP
5.0
GIL Vicente
4.9
Alverca
4.7
Estoril
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.7
Estrela
30.2
Santa Clara
30.1
Maritimo
29.9
Moreirense
29.5
Guimaraes
29.2
Academico Viseu
29.1
Casa Pia
29.0
GIL Vicente
28.1
Rio Ave
27.3
Nacional
27.1
Estoril
27.0
Arouca
26.2
Benfica
26.1
Alverca
26.1
FC Porto
26.0
Sporting CP
25.6
SC Braga
24.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.5%
@ 1.81-0.9%
Under 9.5
49.5%
@ 1.91+0.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.91
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.1%
Under 3.5
24.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
79.3%
Under 21.5
20.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
🔥 5. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 21.5 fouls
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.4%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.15
-4.3%
Over 3.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
72.9%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
-7.2%
Under 3.5
70.9%
1.57
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
+10.4%
💰 6. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (22)
€460m
BEN (19)
€288m
SB (35)
€215m
FAM (27)
€109m
GUI (34)
€73m
GV (30)
€61m
EST (26)
€57m
RA (36)
€53m
ALV (32)
€52m
SC (31)
€46m
CP (34)
€34m
ARO (33)
€32m
EST (39)
€29m
MOR (25)
€28m
NAC (32)
€27m
AV (35)
€18m
MAR (26)
€15m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (7)
€190m
BEN (6)
€105m
SB (13)
€100m
FAM (11)
€51m
GV (14)
€37m
GUI (12)
€34m
EST (8)
€25m
RA (12)
€21m
ALV (11)
€18m
SC (11)
€17m
NAC (11)
€12m
ARO (11)
€12m
MOR (8)
€10m
CP (11)
€9m
AV (15)
€8m
EST (15)
€7m
MAR (10)
€6m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEN (6)
€93m
SC (4)
€72m
SB (9)
€46m
GUI (8)
€26m
FAM (5)
€17m
ALV (9)
€13m
CP (7)
€10m
EST (5)
€10m
SC (6)
€10m
ARO (7)
€9m
MOR (6)
€8m
EST (7)
€7m
RA (7)
€5m
GV (4)
€5m
NAC (8)
€4m
MAR (6)
€2m
AV (6)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (11)
€198m
BEN (7)
€90m
SB (13)
€69m
FAM (11)
€41m
RA (17)
€26m
ALV (12)
€22m
EST (13)
€22m
GV (12)
€19m
SC (14)
€19m
EST (17)
€15m
CP (16)
€15m
GUI (14)
€13m
ARO (15)
€11m
MOR (11)
€10m
NAC (13)
€10m
AV (14)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 7. Games History
Head-to-head
FC Porto vs Alverca · H/A from FP
Date
H/A
Game
Score
02/05/26
H
FP Vs Alverca
1-0
22/12/25
A
Alverca Vs FP
0-3
FP
FC Porto
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
16/05/26
H
FP Vs Santa Clara
1-0
10/05/26
A
AVS Vs FP
3-1
02/05/26
H
FP Vs Alverca
1-0
26/04/26
A
Estrela Vs FP
1-2
19/04/26
H
FP Vs Tondela
2-0
16/04/26
A
Nottingham Forest Vs FP
1-0
12/04/26
A
Estoril Vs FP
1-3
09/04/26
H
FP Vs Nottingham Forest
1-1
04/04/26
H
FP Vs Famalicao
2-2
22/03/26
A
SC Braga Vs FP
1-2
Alverca
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
16/05/26
A
Famalicao Vs ALV
1-0
10/05/26
H
ALV Vs Estoril
1-1
02/05/26
A
FC Porto Vs ALV
1-0
24/04/26
H
ALV Vs Arouca
2-1
18/04/26
A
Nacional Vs ALV
1-0
12/04/26
H
ALV Vs Casa Pia
3-1
04/04/26
A
Rio Ave Vs ALV
1-2
22/03/26
H
ALV Vs Sp Lisbon
1-4
22/03/26
H
ALV Vs Sporting CP
1-4
14/03/26
A
GIL Vicente Vs ALV
2-2
📊 8. Overall Statistics
FP
FC Porto
Portugal: Primeira Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
WWWLW
2.44
Home
DDWWW
2.60
Away
WWLWL
2.28
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
76%
80%
72%
AVG goals
2.46
2.44
2.48
Over 2.5 %
54%
52%
56%
Scored
1.84
2.00
1.68
Conceded
0.62
0.44
0.80
BTTS
46%
40%
52%
Clean Sheet
50%
60%
40%
Failed to Score
6%
4%
8%
Alverca
Portugal: Primeira Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
LWLDL
1.08
Home
LLWWD
1.44
Away
DWLLL
0.72
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
28%
39%
17%
AVG goals
2.61
2.56
2.67
Over 2.5 %
50%
50%
50%
Scored
1.00
1.06
0.94
Conceded
1.61
1.50
1.72
BTTS
56%
56%
56%
Clean Sheet
17%
28%
6%
Failed to Score
31%
22%
39%
🏆 9. League Table
Record
Goals
Props / game
Squad value €m
Strengths
Rank
Team
MP
Win%
PPG
GF
GA
GD
G/G
O1.5
O2.5
O3.5
Cor
Cor O%
Crd
Crd O%
Fls
Fls O%
Tot
Att
Mid
Def
Att/g
Def/g
Poss%
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026-27 full table · FC Porto and Alverca highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.
PythiaFootballBETA
Pythia · model switchable per page
