This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portimonense
Avg scored1.40
Avg conceded1.40
Avg total2.80
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.40
1.07
1.33
1.13
1.47
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.56
0.80
1.20
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.10
1.33
1.20
1.40
1.00
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.2%
@ 1.30-3.9%
Under 1.5
32.8%
@ 3.19+3.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.30
888Sport
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.41
888Sport
3.25
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.3%
@ 1.96-8.5%
Under 2.5
60.7%
@ 1.79+8.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.98
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.96
1xBet
1.96
888Sport
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
888Sport
1.75
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.2%
@ 3.32-8.6%
Under 3.5
80.8%
@ 1.28+8.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.48
888Sport
3.40
Betano
3.30
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
888Sport
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Both teams to score
Yes
43.8%
@ 1.75-8.8%
No
56.2%
@ 1.95+8.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
No
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.95
William Hil
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.8%@ 6.72+7.3%
1-1
13.5%@ 5.94+6.1%
0-0
11.7%@ 8.50+6.5%
2-0
10.9%@ 9.47+6.2%
2-1
8.9%@ 7.92+3.3%
0-1
7.3%@ 8.81+2.3%
3-0
5.2%@ 18.21+2.8%
1-2
5.0%@ 10.25+0.7%
Penafiel goals ↓
Portimonense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.3%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.0%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
8.9%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
5.2%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.9%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penafiel goals (down), columns = Portimonense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maritimo
1.94
Academico Viseu
1.74
Torreense
1.74
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
União de Leiria
1.47
Leixoes
1.47
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Benfica B
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Pacos Ferreira
1.15
Oliveirense
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
Penafiel is 0.03 points better than Portimonense in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Academico Viseu
1.71
União de Leiria
1.53
Maritimo
1.47
Torreense
1.35
Leixoes
1.35
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Portimonense
1.15
Vizela
1.15
Feirense
1.09
Penafiel
1.09
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
Farense
0.89
CF Os Belenenses
0.00
Penafiel is 0.06 goals worse than Portimonense in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
Maritimo
0.85
Academico Viseu
0.97
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
Vizela
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Pacos Ferreira
1.41
Portimonense
1.44
Oliveirense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Leixoes
1.62
Penafiel is 0.29 goals better than Portimonense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
Maritimo
52%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Academico Viseu
49%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Oliveirense
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Pacos Ferreira
46%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Penafiel is 0.4 percentage points better than Portimonense in terms of average possession (49% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Penafiel
For 5.3 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Portimonense
For 4.9 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 18.0 · Total 32.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (34)
11.2
9.8
13.2
5.6
4.9
6.2
27.1
26.7
27.8
vs Stronger (10)
9.7
9.0
11.0
6.6
6.6
6.6
27.7
28.2
26.5
vs Similar (24)
13.5
11.5
15.5
5.1
4.2
6.1
26.2
23.5
29.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
80%
67%
100%
71%
53%
88%
70%
67%
75%
% under line
20%
33%
0%
29%
47%
12%
30%
33%
25%
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portimonense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.6
10.2
5.3
5.2
5.4
27.9
28.6
27.2
vs Stronger (20)
11.3
11.0
11.7
4.7
4.2
5.3
26.2
26.4
26.0
vs Similar (30)
10.5
12.6
8.7
5.8
6.1
5.5
30.1
32.2
28.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
68%
77%
58%
82%
76%
88%
88%
92%
83%
% under line
32%
23%
42%
18%
24%
12%
12%
8%
17%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.2
Portimonense
10.9
Farense
10.7
Torreense
10.5
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
Felgueiras 1932
10.2
União de Leiria
10.2
FC Porto B
9.6
Vizela
9.6
Benfica B
9.6
Chaves
9.5
Tondela
9.4
Feirense
9.4
AVS
9.0
Leixoes
8.7
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.9
Feirense
6.3
FC Porto B
6.3
Vizela
6.2
Chaves
6.1
Leixoes
6.1
Sporting CP B
6.0
Felgueiras 1932
5.9
União de Leiria
5.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Farense
5.7
Penafiel
5.6
Torreense
5.5
Tondela
5.4
Portimonense
5.4
AVS
4.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feirense
32.7
Benfica B
31.8
Farense
31.1
União de Leiria
30.6
Leixoes
30.1
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Felgueiras 1932
29.4
FC Porto B
29.4
Vizela
29.4
Portimonense
28.2
Chaves
27.6
Tondela
27.5
Penafiel
27.1
AVS
25.9
Sporting CP B
25.0
Torreense
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.1%
Under 9.5
99.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
76.9%
Under 3.5
23.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
100.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
🔥 5. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 21.5 fouls
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.8%
1.28
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
888Sport
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+8.6%
Over 3.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
💰 6. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (39)
€76m
BB (38)
€76m
FPB (36)
€57m
TON (32)
€25m
TOR (32)
€20m
AVS (34)
€19m
VIZ (31)
€12m
UDL (30)
€12m
FAR (32)
€11m
FEI (33)
€11m
POR (31)
€10m
CHA (29)
€9m
LEI (32)
€8m
F1 (28)
€8m
PEN (29)
€7m
LL (27)
€6m
Penafiel's squad is €3m less valuable than Portimonense's (€7m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (14)
€37m
FPB (14)
€19m
BB (13)
€15m
TON (12)
€7m
TOR (13)
€6m
AVS (12)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
POR (9)
€5m
FEI (12)
€4m
CHA (10)
€4m
UDL (7)
€3m
FAR (13)
€3m
LEI (12)
€3m
F1 (9)
€2m
PEN (9)
€2m
LL (10)
€2m
Penafiel's attack is €2m less valuable than Portimonense's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (9)
€18m
FPB (7)
€10m
BB (8)
€8m
AVS (7)
€7m
TOR (6)
€5m
TON (6)
€3m
UDL (9)
€3m
FEI (7)
€2m
POR (8)
€2m
CHA (8)
€2m
FAR (5)
€2m
PEN (7)
€2m
LEI (6)
€2m
F1 (5)
€2m
VIZ (3)
€2m
LL (5)
€1m
Penafiel and Portimonense have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (17)
€53m
FPB (15)
€27m
SCB (16)
€21m
TON (14)
€15m
TOR (13)
€9m
AVS (15)
€7m
FAR (14)
€6m
UDL (14)
€6m
VIZ (15)
€5m
FEI (14)
€4m
POR (14)
€4m
CHA (11)
€4m
F1 (14)
€4m
LEI (14)
€3m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (12)
€3m
Penafiel and Portimonense have a similar defence value (both €3m).
🤝 7. Games History
Head-to-head
Penafiel vs Portimonense · H/A from PEN
Date
H/A
Game
Score
17/01/26
H
PEN Vs Portimonense
0-2
09/08/25
A
Portimonense Vs PEN
2-1
Penafiel
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
17/05/26
A
Pacos Ferreira Vs PEN
2-1
09/05/26
H
PEN Vs Maritimo
1-0
04/05/26
A
Torreense Vs PEN
3-2
26/04/26
H
PEN Vs FC Porto B
3-0
18/04/26
A
União de Leiria Vs PEN
4-2
11/04/26
H
PEN Vs Academico Viseu
4-3
04/04/26
A
Sporting CP B Vs PEN
1-2
21/03/26
H
PEN Vs Vizela
0-1
15/03/26
A
Feirense Vs PEN
1-0
07/03/26
H
PEN Vs Farense
1-1
Portimonense
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
17/05/26
H
POR Vs Farense
1-0
09/05/26
A
Felgueiras 1932 Vs POR
1-1
03/05/26
H
POR Vs Chaves
3-2
25/04/26
A
Leixoes Vs POR
2-0
19/04/26
H
POR Vs Lusitânia Lourosa
3-2
12/04/26
A
Maritimo Vs POR
1-0
03/04/26
A
Oliveirense Vs POR
1-2
21/03/26
H
POR Vs FC Porto B
2-1
16/03/26
A
Torreense Vs POR
1-0
07/03/26
H
POR Vs Pacos Ferreira
2-3
📊 8. Overall Statistics
Penafiel
Portugal: Segunda Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
LWLWL
1.21
Home
DLWWW
1.53
Away
LWLLL
0.88
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
32%
41%
24%
AVG goals
2.24
2.00
2.47
Over 2.5 %
38%
24%
53%
Scored
1.09
1.12
1.06
Conceded
1.15
0.88
1.41
BTTS
44%
35%
53%
Clean Sheet
38%
47%
29%
Failed to Score
32%
29%
35%
Portimonense
Portugal: Segunda Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
WLWDW
1.08
Home
LWWWW
0.96
Away
LWLLD
1.20
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
28%
20%
36%
AVG goals
2.86
2.68
3.04
Over 2.5 %
52%
48%
56%
Scored
1.20
1.12
1.28
Conceded
1.66
1.56
1.76
BTTS
58%
64%
52%
Clean Sheet
12%
12%
12%
Failed to Score
34%
32%
36%
🏆 9. League Table
Record
Goals
Props / game
Squad value €m
Strengths
Rank
Team
MP
Win%
PPG
GF
GA
GD
G/G
O1.5
O2.5
O3.5
Cor
Cor O%
Crd
Crd O%
Fls
Fls O%
Tot
Att
Mid
Def
Att/g
Def/g
Poss%
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026-27 full table · Penafiel and Portimonense highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.
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