PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 07/08/2026
Boluspor
Boluspor
Vs
67%
21%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
Turkey: 1. Lig
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Boluspor win
66.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Draw
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Manisa F.K. win
12.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BolusporBoluspor

Avg scored 1.40
Avg conceded 1.70
Avg total 3.10
60-6avg 1.4avg 1.7avg total 3.120120200161202600231H·IĞDH·ÇORA·BODH·BANA·AMEH·SIVA·ERZH·ADAA·PENH·SER
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.572.001.001.132.13
vs Stronger (7)1.142.291.752.000.332.67
vs Similar (20)1.251.501.670.780.912.09
vs Weaker (3)4.670.334.000.006.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Manisa F.K.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Manisa F.K.Manisa F.K.

Avg scored 1.50
Avg conceded 1.50
Avg total 3.00
80-8avg 1.5avg 1.5avg total 3.018300201122010101250A·ERZH·SARA·AMEH·SIVA·ADAH·PENA·VANH·SERA·KEÇH·SAK
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.332.000.801.001.87
vs Stronger (5)0.402.400.002.000.672.67
vs Similar (16)1.501.502.121.000.882.00
vs Weaker (9)2.110.442.600.001.501.00
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Boluspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
No bookmaker prices yet.
No
No bookmaker prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.5%
1-1
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.6%
3-0
8.3%
3-1
7.1%
0-0
5.7%
4-0
4.5%
Boluspor goals ↓
Manisa F.K. goals →
01234
05.7%3.2%1.8%0.5%0.1%
19.6%9.9%3.8%1.1%0.2%
211%9.8%4.2%1.2%0.3%
38.3%7.1%3.0%0.9%0.2%
44.5%3.9%1.6%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boluspor goals (down), columns = Manisa F.K. goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Erzurumspor FK
2.13
Amed
1.95
Çorum FK
1.90
Esenler Erokspor
1.90
Bodrum FK
1.71
Pendikspor
1.62
Bandırmaspor
1.58
Keçiörengücü
1.54
Manisa F.K.
1.45
İstanbulspor
1.37
Sarıyer
1.37
Sivasspor
1.35
Iğdır FK
1.32
Vanspor FK
1.29
Boluspor
1.26
Ümraniyespor
1.21
Serik Spor
1.03
Sakaryaspor
0.92
Hatayspor
0.37
Adana Demirspor
0.16
Boluspor is 0.18 points worse than Manisa F.K. in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.45).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Erzurumspor FK
2.16
Amed
2.13
Esenler Erokspor
2.08
Keçiörengücü
1.87
Bodrum FK
1.80
Boluspor
1.61
Çorum FK
1.60
İstanbulspor
1.50
Manisa F.K.
1.50
Pendikspor
1.49
Iğdır FK
1.37
Vanspor FK
1.37
Bandırmaspor
1.24
Ümraniyespor
1.24
Sakaryaspor
1.22
Sivasspor
1.19
Sarıyer
1.16
Serik Spor
1.16
Hatayspor
0.87
Adana Demirspor
0.58
Boluspor is 0.11 goals better than Manisa F.K. in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Erzurumspor FK
0.71
Bandırmaspor
0.89
Pendikspor
0.90
Esenler Erokspor
0.95
Çorum FK
0.95
Bodrum FK
0.98
Amed
1.11
Keçiörengücü
1.13
Sarıyer
1.16
Sivasspor
1.16
Vanspor FK
1.24
Ümraniyespor
1.34
Iğdır FK
1.42
İstanbulspor
1.45
Manisa F.K.
1.47
Boluspor
1.50
Sakaryaspor
1.86
Serik Spor
1.97
Hatayspor
2.68
Adana Demirspor
4.45
Boluspor is 0.03 goals worse than Manisa F.K. in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Çorum FK
59%
Esenler Erokspor
58%
Boluspor
57%
Iğdır FK
56%
Erzurumspor FK
56%
Vanspor FK
55%
Amed
53%
Pendikspor
52%
Sivasspor
50%
Bodrum FK
49%
İstanbulspor
48%
Sarıyer
48%
Keçiörengücü
48%
Ümraniyespor
47%
Sakaryaspor
47%
Hatayspor
46%
Manisa F.K.
46%
Bandırmaspor
45%
Serik Spor
41%
Adana Demirspor
38%
Boluspor is 11.2 percentage points better than Manisa F.K. in terms of average possession (57% vs 46%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

BolusporBoluspor

For 3.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.2

🚩 Corners

1508129522611210873363129117821215693H·SERA·PENH·ADAA·ERZH·SIVA·AMEH·BANA·BODH·ÇORH·IĞD
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.3

🟨 Cards

50312131112412312234214225535H·SERH·ADAH·SIVA·AMEH·BANA·BODH·ÇORH·IĞDA·ESEH·İST
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 14.4 · Total 23.5

⚠️ Fouls

3701117718910109258119111027132012162825191971920373328H·SERA·PENH·ADAA·ERZH·SIVA·AMEH·BANA·BODH·ÇORH·IĞD
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Manisa F.K.Manisa F.K.

For 3.6 · Against 7.4 · Total 11.0

🚩 Corners

190755824171992410217243812136810111419611H·SAKA·KEÇH·SERA·VANH·PENA·ADAH·SIVA·AMEH·SARA·ERZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.0

🟨 Cards

8013412521221153355314573428881H·SAKA·KEÇH·SERA·VANH·PENA·ADAH·SIVA·AMEH·SARA·ERZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 12.0 · Total 20.9

⚠️ Fouls

310911912102191115131010986126146820213120282017182014H·SAKA·KEÇH·SERA·VANH·PENA·ADAH·SIVA·AMEH·SARA·ERZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

BolusporBoluspor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (38)8.48.18.64.94.75.126.325.826.7
vs Stronger (8)9.57.511.55.16.53.826.428.824.0
vs Similar (26)8.08.57.55.04.35.627.025.528.5
vs Weaker (4)8.26.510.03.83.54.021.222.020.5
% over line39%37%42%66%63%68%71%74%68%
% under line61%63%58%34%37%32%29%26%32%
This opponent (Manisa F.K.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Manisa F.K.Manisa F.K.

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (38)8.88.39.35.15.35.023.424.422.3
vs Stronger (6)10.37.713.05.55.35.724.828.721.0
vs Similar (20)9.08.89.25.35.94.722.222.821.6
vs Weaker (12)7.87.87.74.74.25.224.625.024.2
% over line39%37%42%76%84%68%61%68%53%
% under line61%63%58%24%16%32%39%32%47%
This opponent (Boluspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Kayserispor
10.1
Sivasspor
9.5
Fatih Karagümrük
9.5
Bandırmaspor
9.3
Antalyaspor
9.3
Ümraniyespor
9.2
Bursaspor
9.1
Bodrum FK
9.0
İstanbulspor
9.0
Iğdır FK
8.9
Manisa F.K.
8.8
Esenler Erokspor
8.6
Pendikspor
8.6
Vanspor FK
8.4
Boluspor
8.4
Keçiörengücü
8.1
Sarıyer
8.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Pendikspor
5.9
Iğdır FK
5.2
Vanspor FK
5.2
Antalyaspor
5.2
Boluspor
5.1
Manisa F.K.
5.1
Sarıyer
5.1
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Sivasspor
4.8
Bursaspor
4.7
Keçiörengücü
4.6
İstanbulspor
4.6
Ümraniyespor
4.5
Bandırmaspor
4.5
Kayserispor
4.3
Fatih Karagümrük
4.1
Bodrum FK
4.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Bursaspor
30.1
Vanspor FK
28.3
Antalyaspor
27.3
Pendikspor
27.1
Fatih Karagümrük
27.0
Boluspor
26.3
Kayserispor
25.3
Bodrum FK
24.2
Ümraniyespor
23.8
Sivasspor
23.6
Keçiörengücü
23.5
Manisa F.K.
23.4
Sarıyer
23.3
Esenler Erokspor
23.2
Iğdır FK
22.8
İstanbulspor
22.5
Bandırmaspor
22.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
38.9%
Under 9.5
61.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.7%
Under 3.5
32.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
63.8%
Under 21.5
36.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 1.581.4%-------

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAY (34)
€27m
ANT (29)
€22m
FK (32)
€21m
BF (35)
€18m
IF (38)
€14m
MF (27)
€12m
SIV (25)
€11m
İST (37)
€11m
VF (31)
€10m
EE (25)
€10m
PEN (23)
€9m
BAN (29)
€9m
ÜMR (26)
€8m
BOL (28)
€8m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
Boluspor's squad is €4m less valuable than Manisa F.K.'s (€8m vs €12m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAY (13)
€12m
FK (13)
€11m
ANT (11)
€9m
BF (14)
€9m
SIV (7)
€5m
VF (13)
€5m
IF (14)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (12)
€4m
EE (9)
€4m
BAN (10)
€4m
ÜMR (6)
€3m
PEN (7)
€3m
BOL (8)
€3m
KEÇ (8)
€2m
Boluspor's attack is €1m less valuable than Manisa F.K.'s (€3m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAY (7)
€5m
ANT (5)
€5m
IF (9)
€4m
FK (6)
€4m
BF (8)
€3m
VF (6)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (6)
€2m
PEN (6)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
BOL (8)
€2m
İST (8)
€2m
BAN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (6)
€1m
EE (5)
€1m
Boluspor and Manisa F.K. have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAY (14)
€9m
ANT (13)
€8m
FK (13)
€6m
BF (13)
€6m
IF (15)
€5m
İST (17)
€5m
MF (10)
€5m
EE (11)
€5m
SIV (12)
€4m
BOL (12)
€3m
PEN (10)
€3m
ÜMR (13)
€3m
BAN (14)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
VF (12)
€2m
Boluspor's defence is €2m less valuable than Manisa F.K.'s (€3m vs €5m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Boluspor vs Manisa F.K. · H/A from BOL
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/26AManisa F.K. Vs BOL4-1
13/09/25HBOL Vs Manisa F.K.2-0

BolusporBoluspor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/05/26HBOL Vs Serik Spor3-1
26/04/26APendikspor Vs BOL2-0
19/04/26HBOL Vs Adana Demirspor6-0
13/04/26AErzurumspor FK Vs BOL2-0
09/04/26HBOL Vs Sivasspor1-2
05/04/26AAmed Vs BOL6-1
21/03/26HBOL Vs Bandırmaspor0-0
16/03/26ABodrum FK Vs BOL2-0
12/03/26HBOL Vs Çorum FK1-2
08/03/26HBOL Vs Iğdır FK2-0

Manisa F.K.Manisa F.K.

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/05/26HMF Vs Sakaryaspor5-0
26/04/26AKeçiörengücü Vs MF2-1
19/04/26HMF Vs Serik Spor1-0
12/04/26AVanspor FK Vs MF0-1
07/04/26HMF Vs Pendikspor2-0
03/04/26AAdana Demirspor Vs MF2-1
21/03/26HMF Vs Sivasspor0-1
15/03/26AAmed Vs MF2-0
10/03/26HMF Vs Sarıyer3-0
07/03/26AErzurumspor FK Vs MF8-1

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Boluspor
Boluspor
Turkey: 1. Lig
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW1.26
HomeLDLWW1.63
AwayLLLLL0.89
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %37%53%21%
AVG goals3.112.953.26
Over 2.5 %53%63%42%
Scored1.611.891.32
Conceded1.501.051.95
BTTS55%53%58%
Clean Sheet24%37%11%
Failed to Score26%16%37%
Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
Turkey: 1. Lig
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW1.45
HomeWLWWW1.89
AwayLLLWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%58%26%
AVG goals2.973.052.89
Over 2.5 %55%58%53%
Scored1.501.891.11
Conceded1.471.161.79
BTTS50%42%58%
Clean Sheet32%37%26%
Failed to Score24%21%26%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
Turkey: 1. Lig 2026-27 full table · Boluspor and Manisa F.K. highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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