This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Avg scored1.40
Avg conceded0.80
Avg total2.20
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.23
1.00
0.94
1.50
1.57
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.00
0.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.21
1.00
1.00
1.83
1.50
vs Weaker (12)
1.33
1.08
1.14
1.00
1.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.3%
@ 1.22+8.0%
Under 1.5
15.7%
@ 3.92-8.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.02
888Sport
4.00
10Bet
3.85
1xBet
3.78
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.9%
@ 1.75+9.0%
Under 2.5
37.1%
@ 2.05-9.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Under
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.7%
@ 2.81+7.7%
Under 3.5
59.3%
@ 1.39-7.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.91
Betano
2.80
888Sport
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Under
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Both teams to score
Yes
56.5%
@ 1.74+3.1%
No
43.5%
@ 1.99-3.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
William Hil
1.73
No
Bet365
2.05
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
1.97
Betano
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.1%@ 7.80+4.3%
1-2
9.8%@ 7.80+3.9%
1-1
9.5%@ 7.30+3.2%
0-1
8.0%@ 7.17+1.7%
0-3
7.7%@ 12.04+3.9%
1-3
7.4%@ 12.14+3.7%
0-0
4.8%@ 11.82+0.9%
2-2
4.7%@ 14.39+1.6%
TSV Hartberg goals ↓
Sturm Graz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
8.0%
10%
7.7%
4.4%
1
2.9%
9.5%
9.8%
7.4%
4.2%
2
1.8%
4.2%
4.7%
3.6%
2.0%
3
0.6%
1.3%
1.5%
1.2%
0.7%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = TSV Hartberg goals (down), columns = Sturm Graz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
3.00
Wolfsberger AC
3.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Sturm Graz
1.00
Ried
1.00
WSG Wattens
1.00
TSV Hartberg
0.00
Austria Vienna
0.00
Grazer AK
0.00
TSV Hartberg is 1.00 points worse than Sturm Graz in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Wolfsberger AC
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Sturm Graz
1.00
Ried
1.00
WSG Wattens
1.00
TSV Hartberg
0.00
Austria Vienna
0.00
Grazer AK
0.00
TSV Hartberg is 1.00 goals worse than Sturm Graz in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lask Linz
0.00
Red Bull Salzburg
0.00
Wolfsberger AC
0.00
TSV Hartberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Sturm Graz
1.00
Ried
1.00
WSG Wattens
1.00
Austria Vienna
3.00
Grazer AK
3.00
TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
73%
Lask Linz
59%
Ried
59%
Sturm Graz
58%
Austria Vienna
53%
Wolfsberger AC
47%
WSG Wattens
42%
Austria Lustenau
41%
Grazer AK
41%
TSV Hartberg
27%
TSV Hartberg is 31.0 percentage points worse than Sturm Graz in terms of average possession (27% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
TSV Hartberg
For 3.0 · Against 7.7 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 9.5 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sturm Graz
For 6.1 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 9.7 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
TSV Hartberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (33)
9.7
7.8
11.6
4.1
5.1
3.2
21.8
22.4
21.3
vs Stronger (21)
10.7
7.7
13.4
4.3
5.9
2.9
22.0
22.3
21.6
vs Similar (12)
8.1
7.8
8.3
3.8
3.7
3.8
21.6
22.5
20.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
19%
71%
64%
88%
41%
55%
69%
41%
% under line
55%
81%
29%
36%
12%
59%
45%
31%
59%
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.7
9.9
4.6
4.5
4.7
23.8
25.0
22.6
vs Stronger (14)
9.7
9.5
9.9
3.1
3.2
3.0
25.7
25.7
25.8
vs Similar (19)
10.2
9.1
11.6
5.1
5.0
5.1
24.1
25.5
22.0
vs Weaker (17)
9.5
10.8
8.4
5.4
4.9
5.8
22.0
23.8
20.4
% over line
56%
60%
52%
58%
52%
64%
72%
76%
68%
% under line
44%
40%
48%
42%
48%
36%
28%
24%
32%
This opponent (TSV Hartberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Austria Lustenau
13.0
Lask Linz
10.7
Sturm Graz
9.8
Rapid Vienna
9.7
TSV Hartberg
9.7
WSG Wattens
9.7
Austria Vienna
9.7
Ried
9.3
Red Bull Salzburg
9.2
Wolfsberger AC
9.1
Grazer AK
8.5
SCR Altach
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
4.9
Ried
4.7
Wolfsberger AC
4.6
Sturm Graz
4.6
TSV Hartberg
4.4
Grazer AK
4.3
WSG Wattens
4.2
Austria Vienna
4.2
Rapid Vienna
4.1
Austria Lustenau
4.0
Red Bull Salzburg
3.8
Lask Linz
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Grazer AK
24.4
Rapid Vienna
24.3
Sturm Graz
23.8
Wolfsberger AC
23.4
SCR Altach
23.2
WSG Wattens
23.2
Ried
23.0
Austria Vienna
22.3
Austria Lustenau
22.0
TSV Hartberg
21.8
Lask Linz
21.1
Red Bull Salzburg
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
39.1%
Under 9.5
60.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
74.9%
Under 3.5
25.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
49.2%
Under 21.5
50.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
🔥 5. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 1.5
84.3%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.20
+8.0%
Over 3.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
💰 6. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (36)
€192m
SG (32)
€59m
LL (26)
€48m
RV (37)
€46m
WA (33)
€35m
AV (35)
€30m
TH (30)
€14m
RIE (27)
€12m
SA (30)
€12m
GA (27)
€10m
TSV Hartberg's squad is €44m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€14m vs €59m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€93m
SG (10)
€20m
LL (8)
€17m
RV (13)
€17m
WA (11)
€14m
AV (13)
€13m
RIE (7)
€6m
GA (8)
€4m
TH (8)
€4m
SA (12)
€4m
TSV Hartberg's attack is €16m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€4m vs €20m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (9)
€40m
SG (5)
€17m
RV (7)
€10m
LL (8)
€8m
AV (6)
€7m
RIE (10)
€4m
WA (7)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
GA (7)
€2m
SA (4)
€1m
TSV Hartberg's midfield is €14m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€3m vs €17m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (16)
€59m
LL (10)
€22m
SG (17)
€22m
RV (17)
€19m
WA (15)
€18m
AV (16)
€10m
TH (15)
€7m
SA (14)
€6m
GA (12)
€4m
RIE (10)
€2m
TSV Hartberg's defence is €14m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€7m vs €22m).
🤝 7. Games History
Head-to-head
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz · H/A from TH
Date
H/A
Game
Score
10/05/26
H
TH Vs Sturm Graz
2-4
12/04/26
A
Sturm Graz Vs TH
0-0
30/11/25
H
TH Vs Sturm Graz
0-1
28/09/25
A
Sturm Graz Vs TH
1-0
TSV Hartberg
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
01/08/26
A
Red Bull Salzburg Vs TH
1-0
17/05/26
A
Red Bull Salzburg Vs TH
1-3
10/05/26
H
TH Vs Sturm Graz
2-4
03/05/26
A
Austria Vienna Vs TH
1-0
26/04/26
H
TH Vs Lask Linz
1-5
22/04/26
A
Rapid Vienna Vs TH
0-2
19/04/26
H
TH Vs Rapid Vienna
2-2
12/04/26
A
Sturm Graz Vs TH
0-0
05/04/26
H
TH Vs Red Bull Salzburg
1-2
22/03/26
H
TH Vs Austria Vienna
0-1
Sturm Graz
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
01/08/26
A
WSG Wattens Vs SG
1-1
17/05/26
H
SG Vs Rapid Vienna
2-0
10/05/26
A
TSV Hartberg Vs SG
2-4
03/05/26
A
Red Bull Salzburg Vs SG
1-1
26/04/26
H
SG Vs Austria Vienna
1-1
22/04/26
H
SG Vs Lask Linz
1-1
19/04/26
A
Lask Linz Vs SG
1-1
12/04/26
H
SG Vs TSV Hartberg
0-0
05/04/26
A
Rapid Vienna Vs SG
0-2
20/03/26
H
SG Vs Red Bull Salzburg
1-1
📊 8. Overall Statistics
TSV Hartberg
Austria: Bundesliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
LLLWL
1.27
Home
LLDLL
1.06
Away
DWLWL
1.47
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
30%
25%
35%
AVG goals
2.45
2.75
2.18
Over 2.5 %
45%
56%
35%
Scored
1.21
1.19
1.24
Conceded
1.24
1.56
0.94
BTTS
52%
62%
41%
Clean Sheet
30%
19%
41%
Failed to Score
33%
25%
41%
Sturm Graz
Austria: Bundesliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Draws / 0 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
DDWWD
1.46
Home
DDDDW
1.56
Away
WDDWD
1.36
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
42%
44%
40%
AVG goals
2.56
1.88
3.24
Over 2.5 %
42%
28%
56%
Scored
1.26
0.96
1.56
Conceded
1.30
0.92
1.68
BTTS
48%
44%
52%
Clean Sheet
32%
40%
24%
Failed to Score
24%
24%
24%
🏆 9. League Table
Record
Goals
Props / game
Squad value €m
Strengths
Rank
Team
MP
Win%
PPG
GF
GA
GD
G/G
O1.5
O2.5
O3.5
Cor
Cor O%
Crd
Crd O%
Fls
Fls O%
Tot
Att
Mid
Def
Att/g
Def/g
Poss%
1
Wolfsberger AC
1
100%
3.0
3
0
+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
8.0
0%
2.0
0%
20.0
0%
35
14
3
18
3.0
0.0
47%
2
Lask Linz
1
100%
3.0
3
0
+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
8.0
0%
2.0
0%
25.0
100%
48
17
8
22
3.0
0.0
59%
3
Red Bull Salzburg
1
100%
3.0
1
0
+1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
21.0
100%
-
0%
12.0
0%
192
93
40
59
1.0
0.0
73%
4
Ried
1
0%
1.0
1
1
+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
13.0
100%
4.0
100%
22.0
100%
12
6
4
2
1.0
1.0
59%
5
WSG Wattens
1
0%
1.0
1
1
+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
7.0
0%
5.0
100%
25.0
100%
0
0
0
0
1.0
1.0
42%
6
Austria Lustenau
1
0%
1.0
1
1
+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
13.0
100%
4.0
100%
22.0
100%
0
0
0
0
1.0
1.0
41%
7
Sturm Graz
1
0%
1.0
1
1
+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
7.0
0%
5.0
100%
25.0
100%
59
20
17
22
1.0
1.0
58%
8
TSV Hartberg
1
0%
0.0
0
1
-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
21.0
100%
-
0%
12.0
0%
14
4
3
7
0.0
1.0
27%
9
Austria Vienna
1
0%
0.0
0
3
-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
8.0
0%
2.0
0%
20.0
0%
30
13
7
10
0.0
3.0
53%
10
Grazer AK
1
0%
0.0
0
3
-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
8.0
0%
2.0
0%
25.0
100%
10
4
2
4
0.0
3.0
41%
Austria: Bundesliga 2026-27 full table · TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.
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