PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 09/08/2026
Ried
Ried
Vs
46%
30%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna
Austria: Bundesliga
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ried win
45.9%
Avg Implied 32.8% · @ 2.82
Edge
+13.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
10Bet
2.85
Betano
2.85
1xBet
2.84
Marathonbet
2.83
Betfair
2.80
Draw
29.6%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.23
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Rapid Vienna win
24.5%
Avg Implied 38.5% · @ 2.41
Edge
-14.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
1xBet
2.44
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.42
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.40

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RiedRied

Avg scored 1.00
Avg conceded 1.20
Avg total 2.20
30-3avg 1.0avg 1.2avg total 2.211210120010221210311A·GRAH·GRAA·WSGH·FC H·WOLA·SCRH·WOLH·RAPA·RAPA·AUS
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.301.470.870.871.73
vs Stronger (9)0.892.000.751.501.002.40
vs Similar (21)1.291.001.730.640.801.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna

Avg scored 0.90
Avg conceded 1.60
Avg total 2.50
30-3avg 0.9avg 1.6avg total 2.502112202101302021230H·STUA·AUSA·TSVH·TSVH·REDA·LASH·AUSA·STUA·RIEH·RIE
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.471.001.310.931.64
vs Stronger (1)0.003.000.003.00--
vs Similar (16)0.751.620.891.220.572.14
vs Weaker (13)1.311.151.331.171.291.14
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.4%
@ 1.31-1.2%
Under 1.5
30.6%
@ 3.16+1.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.25
Betano
3.10
888Sport
3.10
1xBet
3.05
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.9%
@ 2.02-4.9%
Under 2.5
58.1%
@ 1.77+4.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
10Bet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
888Sport
1.75
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.2%
@ 3.47-5.5%
Under 3.5
78.8%
@ 1.26+5.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
888Sport
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.40
1xBet
3.38
Under
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
888Sport
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Both teams to score
Yes
47.6%
@ 1.76-4.9%
No
52.4%
@ 1.95+4.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Betano
1.75
No
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
888Sport
1.95
William Hil
1.95

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 6.14+6.6%
1-0
12.0%@ 8.41+6.6%
0-0
10.8%@ 8.64+5.5%
2-0
9.3%@ 13.28+5.9%
2-1
8.9%@ 9.97+4.3%
0-1
7.8%@ 7.61+1.9%
1-2
6.1%@ 9.03+1.1%
0-2
4.3%@ 11.32+0.3%
Ried goals ↓
Rapid Vienna goals →
01234
011%7.8%4.3%1.4%0.3%
112%14%6.1%1.9%0.5%
29.3%8.9%4.2%1.4%0.3%
34.3%4.1%2.0%0.6%0.2%
41.5%1.4%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ried goals (down), columns = Rapid Vienna goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
3.00
Wolfsberger AC
3.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Sturm Graz
1.00
Ried
1.00
WSG Wattens
1.00
TSV Hartberg
0.00
Austria Vienna
0.00
Grazer AK
0.00
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Wolfsberger AC
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Sturm Graz
1.00
Ried
1.00
WSG Wattens
1.00
TSV Hartberg
0.00
Austria Vienna
0.00
Grazer AK
0.00
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lask Linz
0.00
Red Bull Salzburg
0.00
Wolfsberger AC
0.00
TSV Hartberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Sturm Graz
1.00
Ried
1.00
WSG Wattens
1.00
Austria Vienna
3.00
Grazer AK
3.00
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
73%
Lask Linz
59%
Ried
59%
Sturm Graz
58%
Austria Vienna
53%
Wolfsberger AC
47%
WSG Wattens
42%
Austria Lustenau
41%
Grazer AK
41%
TSV Hartberg
27%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

RiedRied

For 5.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.3

🚩 Corners

14094474533447559365484131196812149912A·AUSA·RAPH·RAPH·WOLA·SCRH·WOLH·FC A·WSGH·GRAA·GRA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9

🟨 Cards

6022111135122321224224124645364A·AUSA·RAPH·RAPH·WOLA·SCRH·WOLH·FC A·WSGH·GRAA·GRA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.0

⚠️ Fouls

3601489588513141217178121620812141022141618263420362024A·AUSA·RAPH·RAPH·WOLA·SCRH·WOLH·FC A·WSGH·GRAA·GRA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna

For 5.0 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.1

🚩 Corners

130745439454561114466581191294111281213H·RIEA·RIEA·STUH·AUSA·LASH·REDH·TSVA·TSVA·AUSH·STU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.3

🟨 Cards

8011112222142222441212434448H·RIEA·RIEA·STUH·AUSA·LASH·REDH·TSVA·TSVA·AUSH·STU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 13.7 · Total 21.9

⚠️ Fouls

3105988512715111461511201014916101414161722252131242524H·RIEA·RIEA·STUH·AUSA·LASH·REDH·TSVA·TSVA·AUSH·STU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

RiedRied

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (36)9.39.98.74.74.74.723.022.323.7
vs Stronger (12)9.211.07.54.34.83.820.921.720.2
vs Similar (24)9.49.49.34.94.75.224.122.725.5
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line42%50%33%75%78%72%64%50%78%
% under line58%50%67%25%22%28%36%50%22%
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.79.510.03.73.24.224.323.625.1
vs Stronger (4)7.07.0-0.81.00.029.029.0-
vs Similar (24)9.69.110.13.83.64.124.023.025.1
vs Weaker (22)10.010.19.94.03.34.824.423.725.1
% over line55%55%55%52%35%71%70%64%77%
% under line45%45%45%48%65%29%30%36%23%
This opponent (Ried) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Austria Lustenau
13.0
Lask Linz
10.7
Sturm Graz
9.8
Rapid Vienna
9.7
TSV Hartberg
9.7
WSG Wattens
9.7
Austria Vienna
9.7
Ried
9.3
Red Bull Salzburg
9.2
Wolfsberger AC
9.1
Grazer AK
8.5
SCR Altach
8.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
4.9
Ried
4.7
Wolfsberger AC
4.6
Sturm Graz
4.6
TSV Hartberg
4.4
Grazer AK
4.3
WSG Wattens
4.2
Austria Vienna
4.2
Rapid Vienna
4.1
Austria Lustenau
4.0
Red Bull Salzburg
3.8
Lask Linz
3.7

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Grazer AK
24.4
Rapid Vienna
24.3
Sturm Graz
23.8
Wolfsberger AC
23.4
SCR Altach
23.2
WSG Wattens
23.2
Ried
23.0
Austria Vienna
22.3
Austria Lustenau
22.0
TSV Hartberg
21.8
Lask Linz
21.1
Red Bull Salzburg
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.4%
Under 9.5
50.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.0%
Under 3.5
36.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
59.7%
Under 21.5
40.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 3.578.8%1.26
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
888Sport
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+5.5%

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (36)
€192m
SG (32)
€59m
LL (26)
€48m
RV (37)
€46m
WA (33)
€35m
AV (35)
€30m
TH (30)
€14m
RIE (27)
€12m
SA (30)
€12m
GA (27)
€10m
Ried's squad is €34m less valuable than Rapid Vienna's (€12m vs €46m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€93m
SG (10)
€20m
LL (8)
€17m
RV (13)
€17m
WA (11)
€14m
AV (13)
€13m
RIE (7)
€6m
GA (8)
€4m
TH (8)
€4m
SA (12)
€4m
Ried's attack is €11m less valuable than Rapid Vienna's (€6m vs €17m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (9)
€40m
SG (5)
€17m
RV (7)
€10m
LL (8)
€8m
AV (6)
€7m
RIE (10)
€4m
WA (7)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
GA (7)
€2m
SA (4)
€1m
Ried's midfield is €6m less valuable than Rapid Vienna's (€4m vs €10m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (16)
€59m
LL (10)
€22m
SG (17)
€22m
RV (17)
€19m
WA (15)
€18m
AV (16)
€10m
TH (15)
€7m
SA (14)
€6m
GA (12)
€4m
RIE (10)
€2m
Ried's defence is €17m less valuable than Rapid Vienna's (€2m vs €19m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Ried vs Rapid Vienna · H/A from RIE
DateH/AGameScore
25/05/26ARapid Vienna Vs RIE3-0
22/05/26HRIE Vs Rapid Vienna2-1
06/12/25ARapid Vienna Vs RIE1-2
26/10/25HRIE Vs Rapid Vienna0-2

RiedRied

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/08/26AAustria Lustenau Vs RIE1-1
25/05/26ARapid Vienna Vs RIE3-0
22/05/26HRIE Vs Rapid Vienna2-1
19/05/26HRIE Vs Wolfsberger AC2-1
16/05/26ASCR Altach Vs RIE2-0
09/05/26HRIE Vs Wolfsberger AC0-1
02/05/26HRIE Vs FC BW Linz2-0
25/04/26AWSG Wattens Vs RIE1-0
21/04/26HRIE Vs Grazer AK2-1
17/04/26AGrazer AK Vs RIE1-1

Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/05/26HRV Vs Ried3-0
22/05/26ARied Vs RV2-1
17/05/26ASturm Graz Vs RV2-0
10/05/26HRV Vs Austria Vienna0-2
04/05/26ALask Linz Vs RV3-1
26/04/26HRV Vs Red Bull Salzburg1-0
22/04/26HRV Vs TSV Hartberg0-2
19/04/26ATSV Hartberg Vs RV2-2
12/04/26AAustria Vienna Vs RV1-1
05/04/26HRV Vs Sturm Graz0-2

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Ried
Ried
Austria: Bundesliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLD1.36
HomeWWLWW1.83
AwayDLLLD0.89
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%56%22%
AVG goals2.532.502.56
Over 2.5 %47%50%44%
Scored1.191.391.00
Conceded1.331.111.56
BTTS53%50%56%
Clean Sheet19%28%11%
Failed to Score33%28%39%
Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna
Austria: Bundesliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.32
HomeLLWLW1.48
AwayDDLLL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%44%28%
AVG goals2.622.602.64
Over 2.5 %46%44%48%
Scored1.241.361.12
Conceded1.381.241.52
BTTS54%40%68%
Clean Sheet26%32%20%
Failed to Score22%32%12%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Wolfsberger AC1
100%
3.0
30+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
8.0
0%
2.0
0%
20.0
0%
35
143183.00.0
47%
2Lask Linz1
100%
3.0
30+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
8.0
0%
2.0
0%
25.0
100%
48
178223.00.0
59%
3Red Bull Salzburg1
100%
3.0
10+1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
21.0
100%
-
0%
12.0
0%
192
9340591.00.0
73%
4Ried1
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
13.0
100%
4.0
100%
22.0
100%
12
6421.01.0
59%
5WSG Wattens1
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
7.0
0%
5.0
100%
25.0
100%
0
0001.01.0
42%
6Austria Lustenau1
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
13.0
100%
4.0
100%
22.0
100%
0
0001.01.0
41%
7Sturm Graz1
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
7.0
0%
5.0
100%
25.0
100%
59
2017221.01.0
58%
8TSV Hartberg1
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
21.0
100%
-
0%
12.0
0%
14
4370.01.0
27%
9Austria Vienna1
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
8.0
0%
2.0
0%
20.0
0%
30
137100.03.0
53%
10Grazer AK1
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
8.0
0%
2.0
0%
25.0
100%
10
4240.03.0
41%
Austria: Bundesliga 2026-27 full table · Ried and Rapid Vienna highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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