PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 03/08/2026
Celtic
Celtic
Vs
84%
12%
4%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dundee
Dundee
Scotland: Premiership
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Celtic win
84.1%
Avg Implied 78.1% · @ 1.20
Edge
+6.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Dafabet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.21
Draw
11.6%
Avg Implied 13.6% · @ 6.88
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Dafabet
7.40
Pinnacle
7.22
Dundee win
4.3%
Avg Implied 8.3% · @ 11.24
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Unibet
14.00
Betfair
13.00
Marathonbet
12.00
Betano
11.75
1xBet
11.60

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CelticCeltic

Avg scored 2.30
Avg conceded 1.10
Avg total 3.40
30-3avg 2.3avg 1.1avg total 3.431022110312131323131H·MOTA·DUNA·DUNH·ST H·FALA·HIBH·RANA·MOTH·HEAH·HEA
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.472.271.401.801.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)2.031.472.271.401.801.53
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DundeeDundee

Avg scored 1.30
Avg conceded 1.60
Avg total 2.90
30-3avg 1.3avg 1.6avg total 2.922010112220310301332H·DUNA·HEAA·HEAH·CELA·KILA·DUNH·ST H·LIVA·KILH·ABE
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.601.601.470.601.73
vs Stronger (19)0.791.841.221.890.401.80
vs Similar (11)1.641.182.170.831.001.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%09%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.5%
@ 1.09+1.4%
Under 1.5
12.5%
@ 6.75-1.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Under
Unibet
7.50
BetVictor
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Pinnacle
6.66
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.0%
@ 1.34-1.1%
Under 2.5
31.0%
@ 3.13+1.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Under
Unibet
3.40
Bet365
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Betano
3.15
Superbet
3.15
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.6%
@ 1.89-2.3%
Under 3.5
52.4%
@ 1.89+2.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
SBO
1.97
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Under
Unibet
1.97
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Both teams to score
Yes
43.1%
@ 1.80-8.5%
No
56.9%
@ 1.93+8.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Betfair
1.90
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Unibet
1.80
No
888Sport
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.95

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.5%@ 7.28+6.3%
3-0
12.4%@ 7.55+6.4%
4-0
9.2%@ 10.33+4.8%
1-0
7.9%@ 9.67+3.3%
2-1
7.5%@ 8.97+2.5%
3-1
7.4%@ 9.41+2.6%
1-1
5.6%@ 12.80+2.0%
4-1
5.5%@ 12.59+1.9%
Celtic goals ↓
Dundee goals →
01234
03.4%1.2%0.5%0.1%0.0%
17.9%5.6%1.5%0.3%0.0%
213%7.5%2.2%0.4%0.1%
312%7.4%2.2%0.4%0.1%
49.2%5.5%1.6%0.3%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celtic goals (down), columns = Dundee goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Motherwell
3.00
Aberdeen
3.00
ST Johnstone
3.00
ST Mirren
3.00
Rangers
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Hibernian
0.00
Falkirk
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
ST Johnstone
4.00
Kilmarnock
3.00
Motherwell
2.00
Aberdeen
2.00
ST Mirren
2.00
Rangers
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Heart Of Midlothian
1.00
Falkirk
0.00
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
ST Mirren
0.00
Motherwell
1.00
Aberdeen
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Hibernian
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
ST Johnstone
3.00
Kilmarnock
4.00
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Falkirk
58%
ST Johnstone
56%
Rangers
55%
Motherwell
52%
Aberdeen
51%
Heart Of Midlothian
49%
Hibernian
48%
Dundee Utd
45%
Kilmarnock
44%
ST Mirren
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

CelticCeltic

For 5.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.7

🚩 Corners

160969634171397374167231515781316105135H·HEAH·HEAA·MOTH·RANA·HIBH·FALH·ST A·DUNA·DUNH·MOT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.9

🟨 Cards

9063633262342322122439958752347H·HEAH·HEAA·MOTH·RANA·HIBH·FALH·ST A·DUNA·DUNH·MOT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.5 · Total 22.5

⚠️ Fouls

38010910915925131171610121413787101019192438182626201520H·HEAH·HEAA·MOTH·RANA·HIBH·FALH·ST A·DUNA·DUNH·MOT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DundeeDundee

For 4.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.0

🚩 Corners

12072267556422414747447981211665111111H·ABEA·KILH·LIVH·ST A·DUNA·KILH·CELA·HEAA·HEAH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.3

🟨 Cards

7034111212412222414427231634656A·KILH·LIVH·ST A·DUNA·KILH·CELA·HEAA·HEAH·DUNH·MOT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 13.5 · Total 22.7

⚠️ Fouls

310149181335912722724713111211125132331821293120232318H·ABEA·KILH·LIVH·ST A·DUNA·KILH·CELA·HEAA·HEAH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

CelticCeltic

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.810.910.74.14.14.222.221.622.7
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (1)8.0-8.04.0-4.020.0-20.0
vs Weaker (49)10.910.910.84.14.14.222.221.622.8
% over line60%62%58%56%50%62%38%38%38%
% under line40%38%42%44%50%38%62%62%62%
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DundeeDundee

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.710.59.03.63.43.722.621.823.5
vs Stronger (30)9.610.09.23.33.23.422.222.322.2
vs Similar (19)9.610.78.44.13.74.423.220.825.9
vs Weaker (1)15.015.0-4.04.0-24.024.0-
% over line64%79%50%50%46%54%52%42%62%
% under line36%21%50%50%54%46%48%58%38%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.1
Celtic
10.8
ST Johnstone
10.7
Hibernian
10.7
Dundee Utd
10.4
Rangers
10.2
Heart Of Midlothian
10.1
Falkirk
9.8
Aberdeen
9.7
Dundee
9.7
Kilmarnock
9.6
Motherwell
8.4

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
5.0
Motherwell
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
ST Johnstone
4.3
Falkirk
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Celtic
4.1
Dundee Utd
4.0
Rangers
3.7
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.3

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.2
Motherwell
25.8
Falkirk
25.2
Kilmarnock
24.5
Heart Of Midlothian
24.4
ST Johnstone
23.9
Rangers
23.6
Hibernian
23.4
Dundee
22.6
Dundee Utd
22.3
ST Mirren
22.2
Celtic
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.0%
@ 1.44-4.9%
Under 9.5
41.0%
@ 2.55+4.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
1.52
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.75
Marathonbet
2.67
1xBet
2.53
Superbet
2.50
Unibet
2.32
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.3%
@ 1.86+7.8%
Under 3.5
42.7%
@ 1.82-7.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
1.92
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Under
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Unibet
1.74
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
54.8%
Under 21.5
45.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 1.587.5%1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+1.4%
Home win84.1%1.20
Dafabet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.21
+6.1%

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (34)
€154m
RAN (25)
€127m
HOM (33)
€33m
HIB (31)
€30m
ABE (35)
€24m
MOT (28)
€21m
KIL (33)
€13m
DUN (30)
€12m
SM (26)
€8m
FAL (26)
€7m
SJ (26)
€5m
Celtic's squad is €142m more valuable than Dundee's (€154m vs €12m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (9)
€59m
CEL (12)
€55m
HOM (12)
€19m
HIB (10)
€14m
MOT (10)
€12m
ABE (11)
€10m
KIL (12)
€5m
SJ (9)
€3m
SM (9)
€3m
DUN (11)
€2m
FAL (10)
€2m
Celtic's attack is €53m more valuable than Dundee's (€55m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (6)
€38m
RAN (6)
€28m
HIB (8)
€10m
HOM (8)
€9m
ABE (10)
€5m
DUN (8)
€5m
MOT (8)
€4m
SM (7)
€3m
KIL (6)
€3m
FAL (5)
€2m
SJ (7)
€1m
Celtic's midfield is €33m more valuable than Dundee's (€38m vs €5m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (16)
€60m
RAN (10)
€40m
ABE (14)
€8m
HIB (13)
€6m
MOT (10)
€6m
HOM (13)
€5m
KIL (15)
€5m
DUN (11)
€5m
FAL (11)
€3m
SM (10)
€2m
SJ (10)
€2m
Celtic's defence is €55m more valuable than Dundee's (€60m vs €5m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Celtic vs Dundee · H/A from CEL
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/26ADundee Vs CEL1-2
03/12/25HCEL Vs Dundee1-0
19/10/25ADundee Vs CEL2-0
05/02/25HCEL Vs Dundee6-0
14/01/25ADundee Vs CEL3-3
30/10/24HCEL Vs Dundee2-0
28/04/24ADundee Vs CEL1-2
28/02/24HCEL Vs Dundee7-1

CelticCeltic

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26HCEL Vs Hearts3-1
16/05/26HCEL Vs Heart Of Midlothian3-1
13/05/26AMotherwell Vs CEL2-3
10/05/26HCEL Vs Rangers3-1
03/05/26AHibernian Vs CEL1-2
25/04/26HCEL Vs Falkirk3-1
11/04/26HCEL Vs ST Mirren1-0
05/04/26ADundee Vs CEL1-2
22/03/26ADundee Utd Vs CEL2-0
14/03/26HCEL Vs Motherwell3-1

DundeeDundee

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26HDUN Vs Aberdeen3-2
12/05/26AKilmarnock Vs DUN3-1
09/05/26HDUN Vs Livingston3-0
02/05/26HDUN Vs ST Mirren1-0
26/04/26ADundee Utd Vs DUN3-0
11/04/26AKilmarnock Vs DUN2-2
05/04/26HDUN Vs Celtic1-2
21/03/26AHearts Vs DUN1-0
21/03/26AHeart Of Midlothian Vs DUN1-0
15/03/26HDUN Vs Dundee Utd2-2

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Celtic
Celtic
Scotland: Premiership
Recent: 9 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.84
HomeWWWWW2.04
AwayWLWWW1.65
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%67%46%
AVG goals3.143.332.96
Over 2.5 %72%79%65%
Scored1.782.081.50
Conceded1.361.251.46
BTTS66%62%69%
Clean Sheet24%29%19%
Failed to Score16%12%19%
Dundee
Dundee
Scotland: Premiership
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.10
HomeDLWWW1.46
AwayLLDLL0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%42%19%
AVG goals2.823.082.58
Over 2.5 %56%62%50%
Scored1.161.580.77
Conceded1.661.501.81
BTTS46%62%31%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Failed to Score38%17%58%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ST Mirren1
100%
3.0
20+2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
14.0
100%
4.0
100%
36.0
100%
8
3322.00.0
42%
2ST Johnstone1
100%
3.0
43+1
7.0
100%
100%
100%
9.0
0%
4.0
100%
19.0
0%
5
3124.03.0
56%
3Motherwell1
100%
3.0
21+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
11.0
100%
4.0
100%
27.0
100%
21
12462.01.0
52%
4Aberdeen1
100%
3.0
21+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
10.0
100%
5.0
100%
27.0
100%
24
10582.01.0
51%
5Rangers1
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
15.0
100%
4.0
100%
30.0
100%
127
5928401.01.0
55%
6Dundee Utd1
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
15.0
100%
4.0
100%
30.0
100%
0
0001.01.0
45%
7Kilmarnock1
0%
0.0
34-1
7.0
100%
100%
100%
9.0
0%
4.0
100%
19.0
0%
13
5353.04.0
44%
8Hibernian1
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
11.0
100%
4.0
100%
27.0
100%
30
141061.02.0
48%
9Heart Of Midlothian1
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
10.0
100%
5.0
100%
27.0
100%
33
19951.02.0
49%
10Falkirk1
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
14.0
100%
4.0
100%
36.0
100%
7
2230.02.0
58%
Scotland: Premiership 2026-27 full table · Celtic and Dundee highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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