PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 08/08/2026
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
Vs
51%
34%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
Sweden: Allsvenskan
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mjallby AIF win
50.8%
Avg Implied 46.3% · @ 2.01
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Draw
33.6%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.39
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
1xBet
3.42
IF Elfsborg win
15.6%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.53
Edge
-10.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
10Bet
3.60
Betano
3.60
Pinnacle
3.57
Unibet
3.55
1xBet
3.52

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Mjallby AIFMjallby AIF

Avg scored 1.70
Avg conceded 1.40
Avg total 3.10
40-4avg 1.7avg 1.4avg total 3.120324101111144120012H·HALA·MALA·DEGH·BK A·IF A·IFKA·SIRH·AIKH·VASA·KAL
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.630.831.290.641.941.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Weaker (29)1.690.761.290.642.070.87
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IF ElfsborgIF Elfsborg

Avg scored 1.20
Avg conceded 1.30
Avg total 2.50
30-3avg 1.2avg 1.3avg total 2.511201111112212011321H·AIKH·IF A·HALH·MJAH·BK A·ORGH·HAMA·GAIH·SIRA·MAL
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.701.731.600.801.80
vs Stronger (9)0.782.111.251.750.402.40
vs Similar (13)1.381.621.671.671.141.57
vs Weaker (8)1.621.382.201.400.671.33
Clean sheet %10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mjallby AIF) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%29%19%029%128%215%36%42%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (29%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.1%
@ 1.25-21.8%
Under 1.5
47.9%
@ 3.56+21.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
888Sport
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.71
10Bet
3.65
888Sport
3.60
1xBet
3.54
Marathonbet
3.54
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.6%
@ 1.85-26.1%
Under 2.5
75.4%
@ 1.90+26.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
888Sport
1.85
Under
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.91
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
9.5%
@ 3.06-20.9%
Under 3.5
90.5%
@ 1.33+20.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.11
888Sport
3.10
Unibet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Both teams to score
Yes
29.7%
@ 1.68-25.4%
No
70.3%
@ 2.06+25.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
888Sport
1.67
William Hil
1.67
No
William Hil
2.10
888Sport
2.10
1xBet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
20.2%@ 7.47+14.3%
0-0
19.2%@ 9.95+14.8%
2-0
12.5%@ 9.44+7.9%
1-1
12.5%@ 6.15+5.3%
0-1
8.5%@ 9.86+4.0%
2-1
6.7%@ 7.96+1.2%
3-0
4.9%@ 16.31+2.2%
1-2
3.0%@ 10.86-1.0%
Mjallby AIF goals ↓
IF Elfsborg goals →
01234
019%8.5%2.6%0.5%0.1%
120%12%3.0%0.5%0.1%
213%6.7%1.8%0.3%0.0%
34.9%2.6%0.7%0.1%0.0%
41.4%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mjallby AIF goals (down), columns = IF Elfsborg goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sirius
2.71
Hammarby FF
1.80
Djurgardens IF
1.77
BK Hacken
1.67
Vasteras SK FK
1.57
Malmo FF
1.53
AIK Stockholm
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.40
Gais
1.33
Mjallby AIF
1.21
Kalmar FF
1.20
IF Brommapojkarna
1.13
IFK Goteborg
1.07
Orgryte IS
0.87
Degerfors IF
0.67
Halmstad
0.50
Mjallby AIF is 0.19 points worse than IF Elfsborg in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.86
Hammarby FF
2.20
Djurgardens IF
2.08
Malmo FF
2.00
BK Hacken
1.87
Vasteras SK FK
1.71
Mjallby AIF
1.43
IF Brommapojkarna
1.33
IF Elfsborg
1.33
IFK Goteborg
1.27
Kalmar FF
1.27
Gais
1.27
AIK Stockholm
1.20
Orgryte IS
1.13
Degerfors IF
0.80
Halmstad
0.79
Mjallby AIF is 0.10 goals better than IF Elfsborg in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Gais
1.00
Hammarby FF
1.00
Djurgardens IF
1.15
IF Elfsborg
1.20
Sirius
1.21
Mjallby AIF
1.36
AIK Stockholm
1.40
Kalmar FF
1.40
BK Hacken
1.53
IF Brommapojkarna
1.60
Vasteras SK FK
1.64
Malmo FF
1.67
Degerfors IF
1.73
Halmstad
2.07
IFK Goteborg
2.20
Orgryte IS
2.20
Mjallby AIF is 0.16 goals worse than IF Elfsborg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.20).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
60%
Djurgardens IF
57%
Malmo FF
56%
Mjallby AIF
55%
AIK Stockholm
53%
BK Hacken
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Vasteras SK FK
48%
Degerfors IF
48%
Kalmar FF
47%
Sirius
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
46%
IF Elfsborg
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
Mjallby AIF is 9.5 percentage points better than IF Elfsborg in terms of average possession (55% vs 46%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Mjallby AIFMjallby AIF

For 4.7 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.9

🚩 Corners

14023113523832345753258551471157128713A·KALH·VASH·AIKA·SIRA·IFKA·IF H·BK A·DEGA·MALH·HAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.0

🟨 Cards

90413341363123211115641945312A·KALH·VASH·AIKA·SIRA·IFKA·IF H·BK A·DEGA·MALH·HAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 26.0

⚠️ Fouls

330191391615131361214111014191216161291132252819262133282820A·KALH·VASH·AIKA·SIRA·IFKA·IF H·BK A·DEGA·MALH·HAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

IF ElfsborgIF Elfsborg

For 4.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.3

🚩 Corners

13035646638241643825845810121167710139A·MALH·SIRA·GAIH·HAMA·ORGH·BK H·MJAA·HALH·IF H·AIK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.2

🟨 Cards

60152331121131311216532344221A·MALH·SIRA·GAIH·HAMA·ORGH·BK H·MJAA·HALH·IF H·AIK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 10.5 · Total 19.8

⚠️ Fouls

270918131248981111137101151476121027251217222021191322A·MALH·SIRA·GAIH·HAMA·ORGH·BK H·MJAA·HALH·IF H·AIK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Mjallby AIFMjallby AIF

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (44)10.310.89.83.73.93.525.526.125.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (3)8.37.09.04.04.04.027.020.030.5
vs Weaker (41)10.411.09.93.73.93.525.426.424.5
% over line57%67%48%55%67%43%75%86%65%
% under line43%33%52%45%33%57%25%14%35%
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IF ElfsborgIF Elfsborg

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.09.810.33.33.03.524.422.726.0
vs Stronger (17)9.98.911.62.52.72.325.223.627.6
vs Similar (20)9.810.49.23.83.44.124.422.626.0
vs Weaker (13)10.510.010.93.53.03.923.521.825.0
% over line56%57%55%42%42%42%78%65%91%
% under line44%43%45%58%58%58%22%35%9%
This opponent (Mjallby AIF) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
IFK Goteborg
11.5
Sirius
11.0
Djurgardens IF
10.8
AIK Stockholm
10.6
IF Brommapojkarna
10.5
Orgryte IS
10.5
BK Hacken
10.5
Degerfors IF
10.4
Gais
10.3
Mjallby AIF
10.3
Kalmar FF
10.1
IF Elfsborg
10.1
Malmo FF
10.0
Halmstad
9.9
Hammarby FF
9.8
Vasteras SK FK
9.6

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Djurgardens IF
4.5
IFK Goteborg
4.4
BK Hacken
4.3
AIK Stockholm
4.1
Degerfors IF
4.0
Vasteras SK FK
3.9
IF Elfsborg
3.8
IF Brommapojkarna
3.8
Mjallby AIF
3.8
Gais
3.8
Malmo FF
3.7
Halmstad
3.6
Hammarby FF
3.6
Kalmar FF
3.5
Sirius
3.4
Orgryte IS
3.1

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Vasteras SK FK
26.7
IFK Goteborg
26.1
Djurgardens IF
25.7
Mjallby AIF
25.5
Degerfors IF
25.4
Sirius
25.3
Malmo FF
25.2
Hammarby FF
25.0
Gais
24.7
IF Brommapojkarna
24.6
BK Hacken
24.5
IF Elfsborg
24.3
AIK Stockholm
23.9
Halmstad
23.9
Kalmar FF
22.9
Orgryte IS
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.8%
@ 1.61+2.0%
Under 9.5
41.2%
@ 2.12-2.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Unibet
1.61
Under
Unibet
2.12
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.2%
Under 3.5
42.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
78.1%
Under 21.5
21.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 3.590.5%1.33
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Unibet
1.32
+20.9%
Over 21.5 fouls78.1%-------
Under 2.575.4%1.90
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.91
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
+26.1%
BTTS No70.3%2.06
William Hil
2.10
888Sport
2.10
1xBet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
+25.4%

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (24)
€30m
DI (22)
€27m
SIR (23)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (25)
€20m
IE (26)
€17m
IG (22)
€16m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (20)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
OI (26)
€8m
IB (24)
€8m
HAL (19)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
Mjallby AIF's squad is €9m more valuable than IF Elfsborg's (€26m vs €17m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
MF (6)
€9m
AS (7)
€8m
IG (8)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
Mjallby AIF's attack is €1m more valuable than IF Elfsborg's (€7m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
MA (6)
€11m
MF (5)
€8m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (4)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
HAL (3)
€1m
IB (3)
€1m
Mjallby AIF's midfield is €7m more valuable than IF Elfsborg's (€11m vs €4m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
IG (10)
€5m
AS (9)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
SIR (8)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
Mjallby AIF's defence is €1m more valuable than IF Elfsborg's (€8m vs €7m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg · H/A from MA
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/26AIF Elfsborg Vs MA1-1
04/10/25HMA Vs IF Elfsborg2-0
30/03/25AIF Elfsborg Vs MA2-2

Mjallby AIFMjallby AIF

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26AKalmar FF Vs MA2-1
17/07/26HMA Vs Vasteras SK FK0-0
11/07/26HMA Vs AIK Stockholm1-2
03/07/26ASirius Vs MA4-4
25/05/26AIFK Goteborg Vs MA1-1
21/05/26AIF Elfsborg Vs MA1-1
17/05/26HMA Vs BK Hacken0-1
09/05/26ADegerfors IF Vs MA1-4
03/05/26AMalmo FF Vs MA2-3
27/04/26HMA Vs Halmstad2-0

IF ElfsborgIF Elfsborg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26AMalmo FF Vs IE1-2
19/07/26HIE Vs Sirius1-3
12/07/26AGais Vs IE1-0
05/07/26HIE Vs Hammarby FF1-2
29/05/26AOrgryte IS Vs IE2-2
25/05/26HIE Vs BK Hacken1-1
21/05/26HIE Vs Mjallby AIF1-1
16/05/26AHalmstad Vs IE1-1
08/05/26HIE Vs IF Brommapojkarna2-0
03/05/26HIE Vs AIK Stockholm1-1

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
Sweden: Allsvenskan
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLDL2.09
HomeWWLLD2.10
AwayWDDDL2.09
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %61%62%61%
AVG goals2.592.103.04
Over 2.5 %45%29%61%
Scored1.751.482.00
Conceded0.840.621.04
BTTS52%43%61%
Clean Sheet41%48%35%
Failed to Score11%14%9%
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
Sweden: Allsvenskan
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW1.36
HomeWDDLL1.65
AwayLDDLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%46%29%
AVG goals2.883.232.50
Over 2.5 %56%54%58%
Scored1.361.810.88
Conceded1.521.421.62
BTTS52%62%42%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Failed to Score28%12%46%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sirius14
86%
2.7
4017+23
4.1
100%
86%
57%
10.2
71%
3.0
50%
25.9
93%
27
18542.91.2
47%
2Hammarby FF15
53%
1.8
3315+18
3.2
93%
53%
27%
8.5
33%
3.0
33%
24.6
73%
0
0002.21.0
60%
3BK Hacken15
40%
1.7
2823+5
3.4
87%
53%
47%
10.9
60%
4.3
60%
26.4
80%
16
6371.91.5
52%
4Djurgardens IF13
54%
1.8
2715+12
3.2
69%
62%
38%
12.0
77%
3.5
46%
22.5
54%
27
81462.11.2
57%
5Malmo FF15
47%
1.5
3025+5
3.7
80%
73%
60%
10.3
47%
4.0
60%
26.7
87%
30
98122.01.7
56%
6Vasteras SK FK14
43%
1.6
2423+1
3.4
79%
57%
43%
10.4
64%
3.8
50%
26.9
100%
10
3341.71.6
48%
7AIK Stockholm15
40%
1.5
1821-3
2.6
80%
60%
13%
10.8
47%
4.3
73%
24.3
73%
20
8751.21.4
53%
8IF Elfsborg15
33%
1.4
2018+2
2.5
87%
47%
20%
9.2
47%
3.9
53%
21.3
53%
17
5471.31.2
46%
9Gais15
33%
1.3
1915+4
2.3
73%
40%
20%
9.7
53%
3.6
40%
23.6
67%
13
5351.31.0
50%
10Kalmar FF15
33%
1.2
1921-2
2.7
80%
53%
20%
10.0
47%
3.5
40%
24.0
67%
10
4231.31.4
47%
11Mjallby AIF14
29%
1.2
2019+1
2.8
79%
50%
21%
8.9
36%
4.0
64%
26.4
71%
26
71181.41.4
55%
12IF Brommapojkarna15
27%
1.1
2024-4
2.9
93%
73%
27%
9.9
53%
3.1
33%
21.8
53%
8
3141.31.6
46%
13IFK Goteborg15
27%
1.1
1933-14
3.5
93%
53%
40%
11.1
67%
4.1
47%
24.9
80%
16
8351.32.2
51%
14Orgryte IS15
20%
0.9
1733-16
3.3
93%
53%
33%
9.7
47%
3.1
53%
22.1
53%
8
2241.12.2
43%
15Degerfors IF15
13%
0.7
1226-14
2.5
80%
47%
20%
9.3
40%
3.7
40%
26.0
73%
6
1330.81.7
48%
16Halmstad14
7%
0.5
1129-18
2.9
100%
43%
21%
10.1
50%
3.4
50%
23.7
57%
8
4130.82.1
41%
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026-27 full table · Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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