PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 09/08/2026
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
Vs
47%
28%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
Sweden: Allsvenskan
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

IFK Goteborg win
46.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Kalmar FF win
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IFK GoteborgIFK Goteborg

Avg scored 1.50
Avg conceded 2.50
Avg total 4.00
60-6avg 1.5avg 2.5avg total 4.006013211541204211420A·DJUH·HAMA·ORGH·MJAA·VASH·AIKA·MALH·IF A·SIRH·DEG
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.471.211.071.441.81
vs Stronger (7)1.292.000.501.502.332.67
vs Similar (14)1.071.931.251.751.002.00
vs Weaker (9)1.780.331.670.332.000.33
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalmar FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalmar FFKalmar FF

Avg scored 1.40
Avg conceded 1.40
Avg total 2.80
30-3avg 1.4avg 1.4avg total 2.823200121033002222111A·SIRH·HALA·IF H·DEGA·GAIH·ORGA·HAMH·MALH·MJAA·BK
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.931.940.810.931.07
vs Stronger (1)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Similar (10)1.101.801.401.200.802.40
vs Weaker (19)1.630.472.200.601.000.33
Clean sheet %40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Goteborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.2%
Under 2.5
53.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
No bookmaker prices yet.
No
No bookmaker prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
9.2%
2-0
9.0%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.7%
IFK Goteborg goals ↓
Kalmar FF goals →
01234
09.3%7.0%4.2%1.5%0.4%
111%14%6.3%2.2%0.6%
29.0%9.2%4.7%1.6%0.4%
34.5%4.6%2.4%0.8%0.2%
41.7%1.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IFK Goteborg goals (down), columns = Kalmar FF goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sirius
2.71
Hammarby FF
1.80
Djurgardens IF
1.77
BK Hacken
1.67
Vasteras SK FK
1.57
Malmo FF
1.53
AIK Stockholm
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.40
Gais
1.33
Mjallby AIF
1.21
Kalmar FF
1.20
IF Brommapojkarna
1.13
IFK Goteborg
1.07
Orgryte IS
0.87
Degerfors IF
0.67
Halmstad
0.50
IFK Goteborg is 0.13 points worse than Kalmar FF in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.20).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.86
Hammarby FF
2.20
Djurgardens IF
2.08
Malmo FF
2.00
BK Hacken
1.87
Vasteras SK FK
1.71
Mjallby AIF
1.43
IF Brommapojkarna
1.33
IF Elfsborg
1.33
IFK Goteborg
1.27
Kalmar FF
1.27
Gais
1.27
AIK Stockholm
1.20
Orgryte IS
1.13
Degerfors IF
0.80
Halmstad
0.79
IFK Goteborg and Kalmar FF are level in goals scored per game (both 1.27).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Gais
1.00
Hammarby FF
1.00
Djurgardens IF
1.15
IF Elfsborg
1.20
Sirius
1.21
Mjallby AIF
1.36
AIK Stockholm
1.40
Kalmar FF
1.40
BK Hacken
1.53
IF Brommapojkarna
1.60
Vasteras SK FK
1.64
Malmo FF
1.67
Degerfors IF
1.73
Halmstad
2.07
IFK Goteborg
2.20
Orgryte IS
2.20
IFK Goteborg is 0.80 goals worse than Kalmar FF in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 1.40).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
60%
Djurgardens IF
57%
Malmo FF
56%
Mjallby AIF
55%
AIK Stockholm
53%
BK Hacken
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Vasteras SK FK
48%
Degerfors IF
48%
Kalmar FF
47%
Sirius
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
46%
IF Elfsborg
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
IFK Goteborg is 3.5 percentage points better than Kalmar FF in terms of average possession (51% vs 47%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

IFK GoteborgIFK Goteborg

For 5.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.6

🚩 Corners

170874410547107372366457715815111710512914H·DEGA·SIRH·IF A·MALH·AIKA·VASH·MJAA·ORGH·HAMA·DJU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.8

🟨 Cards

90224112212263322214533229523H·DEGA·SIRH·IF A·MALH·AIKA·VASH·MJAA·ORGH·HAMA·DJU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 10.4 · Total 24.3

⚠️ Fouls

290151316714881614816614121214209101128232224222226262921H·DEGA·SIRH·IF A·MALH·AIKA·VASH·MJAA·ORGH·HAMA·DJU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Kalmar FFKalmar FF

For 4.6 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.6

🚩 Corners

150653225154438683412366115768111471512A·BK H·MJAH·MALA·HAMH·ORGA·GAIH·DEGA·IF H·HALA·SIR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.1

🟨 Cards

503143211212421313532133434A·BK H·MJAH·MALA·HAMH·ORGA·GAIH·DEGA·IF H·HALA·SIR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.5

⚠️ Fouls

3201417131981511126136101013131091020631322323191623231926A·BK H·MJAH·MALA·HAMH·ORGA·GAIH·DEGA·IF H·HALA·SIR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

IFK GoteborgIFK Goteborg

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (45)11.512.210.74.44.24.626.126.126.2
vs Stronger (10)9.910.49.43.94.23.625.225.225.2
vs Similar (20)12.512.412.54.54.84.425.928.623.6
vs Weaker (15)11.113.18.94.53.65.627.123.930.9
% over line64%68%61%60%59%61%82%86%78%
% under line36%32%39%40%41%39%18%14%22%
This opponent (Kalmar FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalmar FFKalmar FF

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (45)10.110.59.72.32.32.322.922.523.4
vs Stronger (1)5.05.0-5.05.0-32.032.0-
vs Similar (11)9.310.88.33.43.63.223.825.522.7
vs Weaker (33)10.810.910.81.91.82.021.920.523.9
% over line53%56%50%31%26%36%57%50%64%
% under line47%44%50%69%74%64%43%50%36%
This opponent (IFK Goteborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
IFK Goteborg
11.5
Sirius
11.0
Djurgardens IF
10.8
AIK Stockholm
10.6
IF Brommapojkarna
10.5
Orgryte IS
10.5
BK Hacken
10.5
Degerfors IF
10.4
Gais
10.3
Mjallby AIF
10.3
Kalmar FF
10.1
IF Elfsborg
10.1
Malmo FF
10.0
Halmstad
9.9
Hammarby FF
9.8
Vasteras SK FK
9.6

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Djurgardens IF
4.5
IFK Goteborg
4.4
BK Hacken
4.3
AIK Stockholm
4.1
Degerfors IF
4.0
Vasteras SK FK
3.9
IF Elfsborg
3.8
IF Brommapojkarna
3.8
Mjallby AIF
3.8
Gais
3.8
Malmo FF
3.7
Halmstad
3.6
Hammarby FF
3.6
Kalmar FF
3.5
Sirius
3.4
Orgryte IS
3.1

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Vasteras SK FK
26.7
IFK Goteborg
26.1
Djurgardens IF
25.7
Mjallby AIF
25.5
Degerfors IF
25.4
Sirius
25.3
Malmo FF
25.2
Hammarby FF
25.0
Gais
24.7
IF Brommapojkarna
24.6
BK Hacken
24.5
IF Elfsborg
24.3
AIK Stockholm
23.9
Halmstad
23.9
Kalmar FF
22.9
Orgryte IS
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
63.3%
Under 9.5
36.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.4%
Under 3.5
49.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
73.8%
Under 21.5
26.2%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 3.575.3%-------
Over 21.5 fouls73.8%-------
Over 1.573.0%-------

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (24)
€30m
DI (22)
€27m
SIR (23)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (25)
€20m
IE (26)
€17m
IG (22)
€16m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (20)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
OI (26)
€8m
IB (24)
€8m
HAL (19)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
IFK Goteborg's squad is €7m more valuable than Kalmar FF's (€16m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
MF (6)
€9m
AS (7)
€8m
IG (8)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
IFK Goteborg's attack is €4m more valuable than Kalmar FF's (€8m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
MA (6)
€11m
MF (5)
€8m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (4)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
HAL (3)
€1m
IB (3)
€1m
IFK Goteborg's midfield is €1m more valuable than Kalmar FF's (€3m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
IG (10)
€5m
AS (9)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
SIR (8)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
IFK Goteborg's defence is €2m more valuable than Kalmar FF's (€5m vs €3m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

IFK Goteborg vs Kalmar FF · H/A from IG
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/26AKalmar FF Vs IG1-1

IFK GoteborgIFK Goteborg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/08/26HIG Vs Degerfors IF2-0
26/07/26ASirius Vs IG4-1
17/07/26HIG Vs IF Brommapojkarna2-1
12/07/26AMalmo FF Vs IG4-0
05/07/26HIG Vs AIK Stockholm1-2
31/05/26AVasteras SK FK Vs IG4-5
25/05/26HIG Vs Mjallby AIF1-1
19/05/26AOrgryte IS Vs IG2-3
09/05/26HIG Vs Hammarby FF0-1
04/05/26ADjurgardens IF Vs IG6-0

Kalmar FFKalmar FF

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26ABK Hacken Vs KF1-1
25/07/26HKF Vs Mjallby AIF2-1
20/07/26HKF Vs Malmo FF2-2
12/07/26AHammarby FF Vs KF2-0
05/07/26HKF Vs Orgryte IS3-0
30/05/26AGais Vs KF3-0
23/05/26HKF Vs Degerfors IF2-1
17/05/26AIF Brommapojkarna Vs KF1-0
10/05/26HKF Vs Halmstad2-0
02/05/26ASirius Vs KF3-2

📊 8. Overall Statistics

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
Sweden: Allsvenskan
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW1.49
HomeLDLWW1.36
AwayLWWLL1.61
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%41%48%
AVG goals2.802.363.22
Over 2.5 %51%45%57%
Scored1.331.231.43
Conceded1.471.141.78
BTTS47%50%43%
Clean Sheet29%27%30%
Failed to Score29%23%35%
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
Sweden: Allsvenskan
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWD1.82
HomeWWWDW2.35
AwayLLLLD1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %51%74%27%
AVG goals2.512.832.18
Over 2.5 %47%57%36%
Scored1.581.961.18
Conceded0.930.871.00
BTTS47%52%41%
Clean Sheet42%43%41%
Failed to Score24%4%45%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sirius14
86%
2.7
4017+23
4.1
100%
86%
57%
10.2
71%
3.0
50%
25.9
93%
27
18542.91.2
47%
2Hammarby FF15
53%
1.8
3315+18
3.2
93%
53%
27%
8.5
33%
3.0
33%
24.6
73%
0
0002.21.0
60%
3BK Hacken15
40%
1.7
2823+5
3.4
87%
53%
47%
10.9
60%
4.3
60%
26.4
80%
16
6371.91.5
52%
4Djurgardens IF13
54%
1.8
2715+12
3.2
69%
62%
38%
12.0
77%
3.5
46%
22.5
54%
27
81462.11.2
57%
5Malmo FF15
47%
1.5
3025+5
3.7
80%
73%
60%
10.3
47%
4.0
60%
26.7
87%
30
98122.01.7
56%
6Vasteras SK FK14
43%
1.6
2423+1
3.4
79%
57%
43%
10.4
64%
3.8
50%
26.9
100%
10
3341.71.6
48%
7AIK Stockholm15
40%
1.5
1821-3
2.6
80%
60%
13%
10.8
47%
4.3
73%
24.3
73%
20
8751.21.4
53%
8IF Elfsborg15
33%
1.4
2018+2
2.5
87%
47%
20%
9.2
47%
3.9
53%
21.3
53%
17
5471.31.2
46%
9Gais15
33%
1.3
1915+4
2.3
73%
40%
20%
9.7
53%
3.6
40%
23.6
67%
13
5351.31.0
50%
10Kalmar FF15
33%
1.2
1921-2
2.7
80%
53%
20%
10.0
47%
3.5
40%
24.0
67%
10
4231.31.4
47%
11Mjallby AIF14
29%
1.2
2019+1
2.8
79%
50%
21%
8.9
36%
4.0
64%
26.4
71%
26
71181.41.4
55%
12IF Brommapojkarna15
27%
1.1
2024-4
2.9
93%
73%
27%
9.9
53%
3.1
33%
21.8
53%
8
3141.31.6
46%
13IFK Goteborg15
27%
1.1
1933-14
3.5
93%
53%
40%
11.1
67%
4.1
47%
24.9
80%
16
8351.32.2
51%
14Orgryte IS15
20%
0.9
1733-16
3.3
93%
53%
33%
9.7
47%
3.1
53%
22.1
53%
8
2241.12.2
43%
15Degerfors IF15
13%
0.7
1226-14
2.5
80%
47%
20%
9.3
40%
3.7
40%
26.0
73%
6
1330.81.7
48%
16Halmstad14
7%
0.5
1129-18
2.9
100%
43%
21%
10.1
50%
3.4
50%
23.7
57%
8
4130.82.1
41%
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026-27 full table · IFK Goteborg and Kalmar FF highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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