PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 03/08/2026
Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
Vs
45%
30%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
Poland: Ekstraklasa
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cracovia Krakow win
45.4%
Avg Implied 41.6% · @ 2.23
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Dafabet
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Draw
29.8%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 3.03
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
BetVictor
3.13
Pogon Szczecin win
24.9%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.33
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Pinnacle
3.85
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.40
Dafabet
3.30

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow

Avg scored 0.90
Avg conceded 1.40
Avg total 2.30
40-4avg 0.9avg 1.4avg total 2.310032214110000331100H·GKSA·GORH·ARKA·RAKH·POGA·ZAGH·RADA·MOTH·KORA·LEC
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.131.141.070.751.19
vs Stronger (9)0.891.331.400.800.252.00
vs Similar (18)0.891.000.881.120.900.90
vs Weaker (3)1.331.332.002.001.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogon Szczecin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin

Avg scored 1.20
Avg conceded 1.20
Avg total 2.40
30-3avg 1.2avg 1.2avg total 2.412022012113023101101A·LECH·LEGA·PIAH·LECA·CRAH·WISA·JAGA·ZAGH·GKSH·LEG
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.271.691.190.931.36
vs Stronger (10)0.901.500.801.401.001.60
vs Similar (18)1.611.222.331.220.891.22
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.000.50--
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cracovia Krakow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.3%
@ 1.36+0.9%
Under 1.5
30.6%
@ 2.94-0.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.13
Betfair
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Unibet
2.95
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.7%
@ 2.16-1.7%
Under 2.5
58.3%
@ 1.66+1.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
SBO
2.19
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
SBO
1.68
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.1%
@ 3.84-3.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
@ 1.23+3.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Betfair
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
3.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Both teams to score
Yes
47.7%
@ 1.85-2.4%
No
52.3%
@ 1.86+2.4%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
William Hil
1.85
No
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
William Hil
1.85

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 5.67+6.2%
1-0
11.9%@ 6.55+5.1%
0-0
10.8%@ 7.67+5.0%
2-0
9.2%@ 9.94+4.7%
2-1
8.8%@ 8.60+3.7%
0-1
7.9%@ 8.30+2.5%
1-2
6.1%@ 10.76+2.0%
0-2
4.4%@ 15.31+1.5%
Cracovia Krakow goals ↓
Pogon Szczecin goals →
01234
011%7.9%4.4%1.4%0.3%
112%14%6.1%2.0%0.5%
29.2%8.8%4.3%1.4%0.3%
34.2%4.1%2.0%0.6%0.2%
41.5%1.4%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cracovia Krakow goals (down), columns = Pogon Szczecin goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Gornik Zabrze
3.00
Radomiak Radom
3.00
Jagiellonia
3.00
Legia Warszawa
3.00
Wisla Plock
2.00
Lech Poznan
2.00
Piast Gliwice
1.50
Zaglebie Lubin
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.50
Slask Wroclaw
1.50
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Cracovia Krakow
1.00
Motor Lublin
0.50
GKS Katowice
0.00
Pogon Szczecin
0.00
Wieczysta Kraków
0.00
Raków Częstochowa
0.00
Korona Kielce
0.00
Cracovia Krakow is 1.00 points better than Pogon Szczecin in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wisla Krakow
2.50
Piast Gliwice
2.00
Gornik Zabrze
2.00
Radomiak Radom
2.00
Legia Warszawa
2.00
Motor Lublin
1.50
Zaglebie Lubin
1.50
Jagiellonia
1.50
Slask Wroclaw
1.50
GKS Katowice
1.00
Wisla Plock
1.00
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Wieczysta Kraków
1.00
Raków Częstochowa
1.00
Lech Poznan
1.00
Pogon Szczecin
0.00
Korona Kielce
0.00
Cracovia Krakow
0.00
Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin are level in goals scored per game (both 0.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Cracovia Krakow
0.00
Wisla Plock
0.50
Jagiellonia
0.50
Lech Poznan
0.50
Legia Warszawa
0.50
Pogon Szczecin
1.00
Gornik Zabrze
1.00
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Radomiak Radom
1.00
Korona Kielce
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin
1.50
Slask Wroclaw
1.50
Motor Lublin
2.00
GKS Katowice
2.00
Wieczysta Kraków
2.00
Raków Częstochowa
2.00
Piast Gliwice
2.50
Wisla Krakow
2.50
Cracovia Krakow is 1.00 goals better than Pogon Szczecin in terms of goals conceded per game (0.00 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Legia Warszawa
60%
Gornik Zabrze
58%
Jagiellonia
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
GKS Katowice
55%
Wieczysta Kraków
55%
Widzew Łódź
54%
Raków Częstochowa
54%
Lech Poznan
53%
Wisla Krakow
49%
Motor Lublin
46%
Slask Wroclaw
46%
Wisla Plock
44%
Radomiak Radom
42%
Cracovia Krakow
42%
Pogon Szczecin
41%
Korona Kielce
38%
Zaglebie Lubin
36%
Cracovia Krakow is 1.0 percentage points better than Pogon Szczecin in terms of average possession (42% vs 41%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow

For 6.3 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.6

🚩 Corners

160693172541157725364631549916798109A·LECH·KORA·MOTH·RADA·ZAGH·POGA·RAKH·ARKA·GORH·GKS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.7

🟨 Cards

1003152552344311221347105841233A·LECA·MOTH·RADA·ZAGH·POGA·RAKH·ARKA·GORH·GKSH·WIS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 11.1 · Total 25.0

⚠️ Fouls

340139151112141271461420171020101110111422262619203427302125A·LECH·KORA·MOTH·RADA·ZAGH·POGA·RAKH·ARKA·GORH·GKS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin

For 3.7 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.8

🚩 Corners

160354363759756111439787971471112716H·LEGH·GKSA·ZAGA·JAGH·WISA·CRAH·LECA·PIAH·LEGA·LEC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

801132311124433112112541386231H·LEGH·GKSA·ZAGA·JAGH·WISA·CRAH·LECA·PIAH·LEGA·LEC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 11.3 · Total 24.3

⚠️ Fouls

3601514126128191710820141312141391161029182036183425272016H·LEGH·GKSA·ZAGA·JAGH·WISA·CRAH·LECA·PIAH·LEGA·LEC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (35)9.78.910.44.44.74.126.625.627.6
vs Stronger (11)10.09.810.24.96.23.825.524.626.2
vs Similar (20)9.48.410.54.54.04.926.225.027.4
vs Weaker (4)10.09.510.52.84.51.032.031.033.0
% over line49%41%56%60%59%61%80%76%83%
% under line51%59%44%40%41%39%20%24%17%
This opponent (Pogon Szczecin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (35)10.510.810.23.94.33.524.223.225.3
vs Stronger (11)9.911.28.43.83.83.827.924.032.6
vs Similar (20)10.310.010.63.84.33.221.922.021.8
vs Weaker (4)13.213.513.05.06.04.025.827.024.5
% over line54%61%47%49%50%47%63%61%65%
% under line46%39%53%51%50%53%37%39%35%
This opponent (Cracovia Krakow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Wisla Krakow
13.5
Pogon Szczecin
10.5
Slask Wroclaw
10.5
Motor Lublin
10.2
Piast Gliwice
10.2
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Lech Poznan
10.0
Korona Kielce
10.0
Zaglebie Lubin
10.0
GKS Katowice
9.9
Cracovia Krakow
9.7
Wisla Plock
9.6
Radomiak Radom
9.6
Jagiellonia
9.5
Legia Warszawa
9.4
Wieczysta Kraków
9.0
Widzew Łódź
8.5
Raków Częstochowa
7.8

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Wieczysta Kraków
6.5
Widzew Łódź
5.3
Motor Lublin
5.2
Radomiak Radom
5.0
Cracovia Krakow
4.8
Raków Częstochowa
4.8
Zaglebie Lubin
4.5
Jagiellonia
4.4
Legia Warszawa
4.3
GKS Katowice
4.1
Piast Gliwice
4.1
Pogon Szczecin
4.0
Lech Poznan
3.8
Gornik Zabrze
3.7
Wisla Plock
3.7
Korona Kielce
3.6
Wisla Krakow
3.6
Slask Wroclaw
3.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Wieczysta Kraków
29.0
Radomiak Radom
28.6
Widzew Łódź
27.0
Cracovia Krakow
26.6
Jagiellonia
26.3
Legia Warszawa
25.8
Zaglebie Lubin
25.8
Motor Lublin
25.7
Slask Wroclaw
25.5
Raków Częstochowa
25.4
Korona Kielce
25.1
Piast Gliwice
24.3
Pogon Szczecin
24.2
GKS Katowice
24.2
Lech Poznan
23.2
Gornik Zabrze
22.5
Wisla Plock
21.4
Wisla Krakow
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.5%
@ 1.60-13.1%
Under 9.5
55.5%
@ 2.18+13.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
Under
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.18
Unibet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.4%
@ 1.33-9.8%
Under 3.5
41.6%
@ 2.85+9.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
Superbet
1.33
Under
Superbet
2.85
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
79.4%
Under 21.5
20.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 21.5 fouls79.4%-------
Under 3.578.9%1.23
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
+3.1%

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JAG (29)
€62m
LP (31)
€53m
RC (33)
€48m
LW (35)
€40m
CK (38)
€33m
GZ (28)
€29m
WŁ (24)
€25m
PS (31)
€22m
WP (33)
€19m
ML (28)
€18m
ZL (28)
€18m
RR (31)
€16m
KK (30)
€16m
GK (33)
€11m
PG (27)
€10m
Cracovia Krakow's squad is €11m more valuable than Pogon Szczecin's (€33m vs €22m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JAG (17)
€43m
LP (14)
€21m
RC (11)
€18m
GZ (13)
€17m
WŁ (12)
€15m
CK (16)
€15m
LW (13)
€12m
PS (15)
€11m
ML (12)
€10m
ZL (10)
€10m
RR (13)
€7m
PG (13)
€4m
WP (9)
€4m
KK (10)
€4m
GK (12)
€3m
Cracovia Krakow's attack is €4m more valuable than Pogon Szczecin's (€15m vs €11m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (13)
€18m
LP (5)
€8m
LW (10)
€7m
WP (12)
€6m
KK (10)
€6m
GK (11)
€5m
WŁ (4)
€5m
ZL (7)
€4m
GZ (3)
€4m
CK (7)
€3m
RR (7)
€2m
ML (5)
€2m
PS (4)
€2m
JAG (3)
€2m
PG (2)
€1m
Cracovia Krakow's midfield is €1m more valuable than Pogon Szczecin's (€3m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€23m
LW (12)
€21m
JAG (9)
€17m
CK (15)
€15m
RC (9)
€12m
PS (12)
€9m
WP (12)
€9m
GZ (12)
€7m
RR (11)
€7m
KK (10)
€7m
ML (11)
€6m
PG (12)
€5m
WŁ (8)
€5m
ZL (11)
€4m
GK (10)
€3m
Cracovia Krakow's defence is €6m more valuable than Pogon Szczecin's (€15m vs €9m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin · H/A from CK
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HCK Vs Pogon Szczecin1-1
25/10/25APogon Szczecin Vs CK2-1

Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26ALech Poznan Vs CK0-0
23/05/26HCK Vs Korona Kielce1-1
16/05/26AMotor Lublin Vs CK3-3
11/05/26HCK Vs Radomiak Radom0-0
03/05/26AZaglebie Lubin Vs CK0-0
25/04/26HCK Vs Pogon Szczecin1-1
19/04/26ARaków Częstochowa Vs CK4-1
12/04/26HCK Vs Arka Gdynia2-2
04/04/26AGornik Zabrze Vs CK3-0
21/03/26HCK Vs GKS Katowice1-0

Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/07/26HPS Vs Legia Warszawa0-1
23/05/26HPS Vs GKS Katowice1-1
15/05/26AZaglebie Lubin Vs PS0-1
09/05/26AJagiellonia Vs PS3-2
03/05/26HPS Vs Wisla Plock3-0
25/04/26ACracovia Krakow Vs PS1-1
18/04/26HPS Vs Lech Poznan1-2
13/04/26APiast Gliwice Vs PS0-2
06/04/26HPS Vs Legia Warszawa0-2
21/03/26ALechia Gdansk Vs PS2-1

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
Poland: Ekstraklasa
Recent: 1 Wins / 7 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDDD1.23
HomeWDDDD1.41
AwayLLDDD1.06
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%29%22%
AVG goals2.312.242.39
Over 2.5 %46%41%50%
Scored1.111.241.00
Conceded1.201.001.39
BTTS49%59%39%
Clean Sheet43%41%44%
Failed to Score31%18%44%
Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
Poland: Ekstraklasa
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDL1.29
HomeLLWDL1.67
AwayLWDLW0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %37%50%24%
AVG goals2.773.002.53
Over 2.5 %51%61%41%
Scored1.341.720.94
Conceded1.431.281.59
BTTS57%61%53%
Clean Sheet20%22%18%
Failed to Score23%17%29%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Legia Warszawa2
100%
3.0
41+3
2.5
50%
50%
50%
9.5
50%
2.0
0%
25.0
50%
40
127212.00.5
60%
2Jagiellonia2
100%
3.0
31+2
2.0
50%
50%
0%
7.5
0%
2.0
0%
22.5
50%
62
432171.50.5
58%
3Wisla Plock2
50%
2.0
21+1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
10.0
50%
4.5
100%
27.0
100%
19
4691.00.5
44%
4Lech Poznan2
50%
2.0
21+1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
13.0
100%
3.5
50%
21.0
50%
53
218231.00.5
53%
5Gornik Zabrze1
100%
3.0
21+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
14.0
100%
3.0
0%
27.0
100%
29
17472.01.0
58%
6Radomiak Radom1
100%
3.0
21+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
7.0
0%
10.0
100%
38.0
100%
16
7272.01.0
42%
7Wisla Krakow2
50%
1.5
55+0
5.0
100%
100%
50%
13.5
100%
3.0
50%
20.5
50%
0
0002.52.5
49%
8Zaglebie Lubin2
50%
1.5
33+0
3.0
100%
50%
50%
13.5
100%
2.0
0%
26.0
50%
18
10441.51.5
36%
9Slask Wroclaw2
50%
1.5
33+0
3.0
100%
100%
0%
10.5
50%
3.0
0%
25.5
100%
0
0001.51.5
46%
10Piast Gliwice2
50%
1.5
45-1
4.5
100%
50%
50%
15.5
100%
2.0
0%
23.5
50%
10
4152.02.5
56%
11Widzew Łódź2
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
50%
9.5
50%
5.0
100%
26.0
100%
25
15551.01.0
54%
12Cracovia Krakow1
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
15.0
100%
4.0
100%
22.0
100%
33
153150.00.0
42%
13Motor Lublin2
0%
0.5
34-1
3.5
100%
100%
50%
7.0
0%
4.0
50%
19.5
50%
18
10261.52.0
46%
14GKS Katowice1
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
12.0
100%
4.0
100%
25.0
100%
11
3531.02.0
55%
15Pogon Szczecin1
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
8.0
0%
2.0
0%
29.0
100%
22
11290.01.0
41%
16Korona Kielce1
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
9.0
0%
1.0
0%
30.0
100%
16
4670.01.0
38%
17Wieczysta Kraków2
0%
0.0
24-2
3.0
100%
100%
0%
9.0
50%
6.5
50%
29.0
50%
0
0001.02.0
55%
18Raków Częstochowa2
0%
0.0
24-2
3.0
100%
100%
0%
8.0
0%
3.5
50%
25.0
100%
48
1818121.02.0
54%
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026-27 full table · Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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