PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 08/08/2026
FC
FK Crvena Zvezda
Vs
84%
12%
4%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
Serbia: Super Liga
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

FK Crvena Zvezda win
83.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Draw
12.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Novi Pazar win
4.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

FC
FK Crvena Zvezda

Avg scored 2.40
Avg conceded 1.10
Avg total 3.50
50-5avg 2.4avg 1.1avg total 3.532412230211200125031H·FK H·VOJA·Å½ELH·FK A·CUKH·NOVA·RADH·OFKH·MACH·VOJ
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.200.672.530.651.770.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.700.501.880.621.000.00
vs Weaker (20)2.450.753.110.671.910.82
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Novi Pazar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Novi PazarNovi Pazar

Avg scored 1.00
Avg conceded 2.10
Avg total 3.10
50-5avg 1.0avg 2.1avg total 3.115022212212203100014H·OFKA·RADH·CUKA·FK A·FK H·Å½ELA·VOJH·RADA·MLAH·OFK
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.471.471.530.801.40
vs Stronger (10)1.102.001.671.670.862.14
vs Similar (16)1.121.191.331.440.860.86
vs Weaker (4)1.251.251.671.670.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Crvena Zvezda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%4%011%120%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.2%
Under 2.5
34.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.3%
Under 3.5
56.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
39.5%
No
60.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
No bookmaker prices yet.
No
No bookmaker prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.9%
3-0
13.1%
1-0
9.3%
4-0
9.3%
2-1
7.4%
3-1
7.0%
1-1
5.8%
5-0
5.2%
FK Crvena Zvezda goals ↓
Novi Pazar goals →
01234
04.0%1.3%0.5%0.1%0.0%
19.3%5.8%1.4%0.3%0.0%
214%7.4%2.0%0.4%0.0%
313%7.0%1.9%0.3%0.0%
49.3%4.9%1.3%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Crvena Zvezda goals (down), columns = Novi Pazar goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Železničar Pančevo
3.00
IMT Novi Beograd
3.00
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.00
FK Partizan
2.00
Cukaricki
2.00
Vojvodina
1.50
OFK Beograd
1.33
Novi Pazar
1.33
Mladost Lucani
1.00
Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Zemun
0.50
Radnicki NIS
0.00
Radnicki 1923
0.00
Macva
0.00
FK Crvena Zvezda is 1.67 points better than Novi Pazar in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 1.33).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
4.00
Vojvodina
2.50
FK Partizan
2.50
IMT Novi Beograd
2.50
Železničar Pančevo
2.00
Cukaricki
1.67
OFK Beograd
1.33
Zemun
1.00
Novi Pazar
0.67
Mladost Lucani
0.50
Radnik Surdulica
0.50
Radnicki NIS
0.50
Macva
0.50
Radnicki 1923
0.00
FK Crvena Zvezda is 3.33 goals better than Novi Pazar in terms of goals scored per game (4.00 vs 0.67).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
IMT Novi Beograd
0.00
Cukaricki
0.33
Mladost Lucani
0.50
Radnik Surdulica
0.50
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.50
Železničar Pančevo
1.00
Novi Pazar
1.33
Vojvodina
1.50
FK Partizan
1.50
OFK Beograd
1.67
Radnicki NIS
2.00
Radnicki 1923
2.00
Zemun
3.00
Macva
4.00
FK Crvena Zvezda is 0.83 goals better than Novi Pazar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.33).

ā±ļø Possession

Avg possession %
Radnicki 1923
66%
FK Partizan
66%
FK Crvena Zvezda
63%
Radnicki NIS
62%
Radnik Surdulica
56%
IMT Novi Beograd
56%
OFK Beograd
53%
Novi Pazar
49%
Železničar Pančevo
45%
Vojvodina
44%
Cukaricki
41%
Mladost Lucani
35%
Macva
34%
Zemun
32%
FK Crvena Zvezda is 14.0 percentage points better than Novi Pazar in terms of average possession (63% vs 49%).

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

FC
FK Crvena Zvezda

For 6.2 · Against 1.2 · Total 7.4

šŸš© Corners

12062911141335153614989125668749H·VOJH·MACH·OFKA·RADH·NOVA·CUKH·FK A·Å½ELH·VOJH·FK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.1

šŸŸØ Cards

702211146223311341314256462714H·VOJH·MACA·RADH·NOVA·CUKH·FK A·Å½ELH·VOJH·FK A·RAD
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 12.9 · Total 24.5

āš ļø Fouls

3709791081414186221216191814914811716192232282837232218H·VOJH·MACH·OFKA·RADH·NOVA·CUKH·FK A·Å½ELH·VOJH·FK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Novi PazarNovi Pazar

For 3.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.0

šŸš© Corners

150436341113413353581723791545681385H·OFKA·MLAH·RADA·VOJH·Å½ELA·FK A·FK H·CUKA·RADH·OFK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.3

šŸŸØ Cards

60421231426131332236344264455H·OFKA·MLAH·RADA·VOJH·Å½ELA·FK A·FK H·CUKA·RADH·OFK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 11.0 · Total 25.2

āš ļø Fouls

33014913121314141917722611912121510111223252733242820242523H·OFKA·MLAH·RADA·VOJH·Å½ELA·FK A·FK H·CUKA·RADH·OFK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FC
FK Crvena Zvezda

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.210.510.03.32.83.824.023.224.8
vs Stronger (3)8.012.06.03.34.03.019.722.018.5
vs Similar (14)9.48.611.24.13.75.026.827.325.8
vs Weaker (33)10.811.610.23.02.13.623.220.625.2
% over line58%58%58%48%36%60%65%62%67%
% under line42%42%42%52%64%40%35%38%33%
This opponent (Novi Pazar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Novi PazarNovi Pazar

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (42)8.89.18.64.04.33.626.226.326.1
vs Stronger (14)7.87.28.33.94.03.824.823.625.6
vs Similar (22)9.29.88.44.04.53.527.127.326.8
vs Weaker (6)9.79.310.03.84.33.325.826.725.0
% over line35%45%25%64%71%57%82%80%85%
% under line65%55%75%36%29%43%18%20%15%
This opponent (FK Crvena Zvezda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

šŸš© Total Corners

Match total corners / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
10.2
Vojvodina
9.2
Mladost Lucani
9.1
FK Partizan
9.0
Zemun
9.0
Cukaricki
8.9
Novi Pazar
8.8
Železničar Pančevo
8.8
Radnik Surdulica
8.8
OFK Beograd
8.8
Radnicki NIS
8.6
Radnicki 1923
8.5
IMT Novi Beograd
8.5
Macva
8.0

šŸŸØ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Macva
7.0
Radnik Surdulica
5.5
Radnicki 1923
5.4
Radnicki NIS
5.2
Cukaricki
4.9
Vojvodina
4.8
OFK Beograd
4.8
FK Partizan
4.7
Železničar Pančevo
4.7
IMT Novi Beograd
4.6
Zemun
4.5
Mladost Lucani
4.2
Novi Pazar
4.2
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.6

āš ļø Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Radnik Surdulica
30.4
Radnicki 1923
29.4
Cukaricki
28.7
OFK Beograd
28.7
IMT Novi Beograd
28.6
Radnicki NIS
27.8
Železničar Pančevo
26.7
Novi Pazar
26.2
FK Partizan
25.8
Vojvodina
25.7
Macva
25.0
Mladost Lucani
24.7
FK Crvena Zvezda
24.0
Zemun
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.2%
Under 9.5
57.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
40.5%
Under 3.5
59.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.0%
Under 21.5
33.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

šŸ”„ 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 1.585.4%-------
Home win83.8%-------

šŸ’° 6. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (31)
€60m
OB (36)
€29m
ŽP (36)
€24m
VOJ (27)
€23m
CUK (37)
€20m
INB (44)
€19m
NP (34)
€18m
RS (38)
€15m
RN (34)
€14m
R1 (32)
€13m
ML (33)
€8m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (12)
€26m
CUK (13)
€12m
OB (13)
€11m
ŽP (14)
€11m
VOJ (13)
€9m
RS (17)
€9m
INB (22)
€8m
NP (18)
€8m
R1 (12)
€7m
RN (17)
€7m
ML (13)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (4)
€19m
OB (8)
€8m
ŽP (9)
€6m
INB (4)
€5m
VOJ (4)
€5m
NP (4)
€3m
CUK (7)
€3m
R1 (6)
€2m
RS (7)
€2m
RN (5)
€1m
ML (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (15)
€15m
OB (15)
€10m
VOJ (10)
€9m
NP (12)
€7m
ŽP (13)
€7m
RN (12)
€6m
INB (18)
€6m
CUK (17)
€5m
RS (14)
€4m
R1 (14)
€4m
ML (14)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ¤ 7. Games History

Head-to-head

FK Crvena Zvezda vs Novi Pazar · H/A from FCZ
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HFCZ Vs Novi Pazar1-2
07/02/26HFCZ Vs Novi Pazar5-0
31/08/25ANovi Pazar Vs FCZ1-5

FC
FK Crvena Zvezda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26HFCZ Vs Vojvodina3-1
17/07/26HFCZ Vs Macva5-0
22/05/26HFCZ Vs OFK Beograd1-2
17/05/26ARadnik Surdulica Vs FCZ0-0
09/05/26HFCZ Vs Novi Pazar1-2
04/05/26ACukaricki Vs FCZ1-2
26/04/26HFCZ Vs FK Partizan3-0
22/04/26AŽelezničar Pančevo Vs FCZ2-2
18/04/26HFCZ Vs Vojvodina4-1
09/04/26HFCZ Vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV3-2

Novi PazarNovi Pazar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26HNP Vs OFK Beograd1-4
26/07/26AMladost Lucani Vs NP0-0
18/07/26HNP Vs Radnicki 19231-0
23/05/26AVojvodina Vs NP3-0
17/05/26HNP Vs Železničar Pančevo2-2
09/05/26AFK Crvena Zvezda Vs NP1-2
02/05/26AFK Partizan Vs NP2-1
26/04/26HNP Vs Cukaricki2-2
22/04/26ARadnik Surdulica Vs NP2-0
18/04/26HNP Vs OFK Beograd1-5

šŸ“Š 8. Overall Statistics

FC
FK Crvena Zvezda
Serbia: Super Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWW2.10
HomeWLLWW2.12
AwayWWDWD2.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%65%62%
AVG goals3.003.192.79
Over 2.5 %60%62%58%
Scored2.162.461.83
Conceded0.840.730.96
BTTS52%50%54%
Clean Sheet40%42%38%
Failed to Score14%8%21%
Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
Serbia: Super Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDL1.33
HomeLDDWL1.52
AwayLLWLD1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%43%29%
AVG goals2.692.952.43
Over 2.5 %50%57%43%
Scored1.191.381.00
Conceded1.501.571.43
BTTS52%67%38%
Clean Sheet31%33%29%
Failed to Score24%0%48%

šŸ† 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Crvena Zvezda2
100%
3.0
81+7
4.5
100%
100%
100%
8.5
0%
3.0
50%
17.5
0%
0
0004.00.5
63%
2IMT Novi Beograd2
100%
3.0
50+5
2.5
50%
50%
50%
9.5
50%
5.5
50%
27.5
50%
19
8562.50.0
56%
3Cukaricki3
67%
2.0
51+4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
8.7
67%
5.7
100%
26.0
67%
20
12351.70.3
41%
4FK Partizan2
50%
2.0
53+2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
6.0
0%
9.0
100%
28.0
100%
60
2619152.51.5
66%
5OFK Beograd3
33%
1.3
45-1
3.0
67%
67%
67%
8.3
33%
5.3
67%
30.0
100%
29
118101.31.7
53%
6Novi Pazar3
33%
1.3
24-2
2.0
33%
33%
33%
10.3
33%
4.3
67%
25.0
100%
18
8370.71.3
49%
7Vojvodina2
50%
1.5
53+2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
7.5
0%
3.5
50%
23.5
50%
23
9592.51.5
44%
8Železničar Pančevo1
100%
3.0
21+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
10.0
100%
4.0
100%
27.0
100%
24
11672.01.0
45%
9Mladost Lucani2
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
8.5
0%
3.0
0%
25.5
100%
8
5120.50.5
35%
10Radnik Surdulica2
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
9.5
50%
5.0
50%
31.0
100%
15
9240.50.5
56%
11Zemun2
0%
0.5
26-4
4.0
100%
100%
100%
9.0
50%
4.5
50%
22.0
50%
0
0001.03.0
32%
12Radnicki NIS2
0%
0.0
14-3
2.5
100%
50%
0%
10.0
100%
4.0
100%
22.5
50%
14
7160.52.0
62%
13Radnicki 19232
0%
0.0
04-4
2.0
50%
50%
0%
12.5
100%
4.5
100%
25.5
100%
13
7240.02.0
66%
14Macva2
0%
0.0
18-7
4.5
100%
100%
100%
8.0
0%
7.0
50%
25.0
50%
0
0000.54.0
34%
Serbia: Super Liga 2026-27 full table · FK Crvena Zvezda and Novi Pazar highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

← all matches