This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv
Avg scored0.80
Avg conceded1.20
Avg total2.00
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.37
1.87
1.00
1.53
1.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
2.50
1.83
2.67
1.00
2.33
2.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.67
1.29
1.90
1.10
1.45
1.45
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
No bookmaker prices yet.
No
No bookmaker prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
7.8%
0-0
7.5%
1-0
7.2%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
5.7%
FC Orenburg goals ↓
Lokomotiv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
7.8%
6.4%
3.1%
1.1%
1
7.2%
13%
8.6%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.6%
8.0%
5.7%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.5%
3.6%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Orenburg goals (down), columns = Lokomotiv goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Makhachkala
3.00
Spartak Moscow
3.00
Zenit
3.00
FC Krasnodar
3.00
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Baltika
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.50
FC Rostov
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.50
Dynamo
0.50
Fakel
0.00
Rodina Moskva
0.00
Akron
0.00
FC Orenburg is 1.00 points better than Lokomotiv in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
4.00
Spartak Moscow
3.00
FC Krasnodar
3.00
FC Rostov
2.50
Dinamo Makhachkala
2.00
Baltika
1.50
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Fakel
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Lokomotiv
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Orenburg
1.00
Rodina Moskva
1.00
Krylia Sovetov
0.50
Dynamo
0.50
Akron
0.50
FC Orenburg and Lokomotiv are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartak Moscow
0.00
Zenit
0.00
Krylia Sovetov
0.50
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Dynamo
1.00
Baltika
1.50
Lokomotiv
1.50
FC Krasnodar
1.50
FC Orenburg
2.00
FC Rostov
2.00
Rubin
2.00
Fakel
2.50
Rodina Moskva
3.50
Akron
3.50
FC Orenburg is 0.50 goals worse than Lokomotiv in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
69%
FC Krasnodar
64%
CSKA Moscow
60%
Spartak Moscow
60%
Zenit
58%
Akron
58%
FC Rostov
55%
Lokomotiv
53%
Akhmat
53%
Fakel
50%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
42%
Krylia Sovetov
39%
FC Orenburg
36%
Baltika
32%
Rubin
32%
FC Orenburg is 17.0 percentage points worse than Lokomotiv in terms of average possession (36% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Orenburg
For 4.6 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 13.5 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lokomotiv
For 5.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 10.9 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Orenburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (33)
9.8
10.1
9.5
4.4
4.9
3.8
29.0
30.9
26.9
vs Stronger (18)
9.8
11.0
8.5
4.4
4.6
4.3
29.6
31.4
27.6
vs Similar (15)
9.8
9.0
10.7
4.3
5.4
3.1
28.3
30.2
26.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
65%
47%
67%
82%
50%
91%
94%
87%
% under line
44%
35%
53%
33%
18%
50%
9%
6%
13%
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (33)
8.8
8.4
9.1
4.5
4.2
4.8
27.5
28.2
26.8
vs Stronger (4)
7.5
5.5
9.5
5.8
7.5
4.0
29.8
32.5
27.0
vs Similar (6)
9.2
9.3
9.0
3.3
3.3
3.3
25.7
26.7
24.7
vs Weaker (23)
8.9
8.7
9.1
4.6
3.9
5.3
27.5
27.8
27.3
% over line
47%
38%
56%
45%
41%
50%
81%
81%
81%
% under line
53%
62%
44%
55%
59%
50%
19%
19%
19%
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
13.5
CSKA Moscow
10.8
Dynamo
10.0
FC Orenburg
9.8
Zenit
9.5
Krylia Sovetov
9.3
Spartak Moscow
8.9
Akhmat
8.9
Dinamo Makhachkala
8.9
Lokomotiv
8.8
Akron
8.8
FC Krasnodar
8.4
FC Rostov
8.4
Rubin
8.0
Fakel
8.0
Baltika
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Baltika
5.5
FC Rostov
5.3
Spartak Moscow
5.2
FC Krasnodar
5.1
Rubin
4.7
Krylia Sovetov
4.7
Lokomotiv
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.5
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Akhmat
4.5
Dynamo
4.5
Zenit
4.2
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.1
Akron
3.7
Rodina Moskva
3.0
Fakel
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Spartak Moscow
30.6
Baltika
30.6
Rodina Moskva
30.0
FC Rostov
29.6
Rubin
29.3
FC Orenburg
29.0
Akhmat
28.8
Dinamo Makhachkala
28.8
FC Krasnodar
28.6
Krylia Sovetov
27.5
Lokomotiv
27.5
Dynamo
27.3
Zenit
27.1
CSKA Moscow
26.9
Akron
26.6
Fakel
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.2%
Under 9.5
53.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.9%
Under 3.5
27.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
90.3%
Under 21.5
9.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
🔥 5. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 21.5 fouls
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
💰 6. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (35)
€204m
CM (35)
€137m
FK (31)
€125m
SM (26)
€119m
LOK (28)
€111m
DYN (33)
€111m
RUB (32)
€53m
FR (33)
€37m
BAL (34)
€36m
KS (32)
€32m
AKH (31)
€32m
AKR (31)
€30m
FO (42)
€25m
DM (30)
€23m
FC Orenburg's squad is €86m less valuable than Lokomotiv's (€25m vs €111m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (11)
€109m
FK (15)
€64m
SM (11)
€58m
LOK (9)
€53m
DYN (10)
€46m
CM (16)
€41m
RUB (10)
€18m
FR (14)
€17m
AKH (10)
€16m
KS (13)
€13m
AKR (11)
€11m
FO (15)
€10m
BAL (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€6m
FC Orenburg's attack is €43m less valuable than Lokomotiv's (€10m vs €53m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (7)
€52m
ZEN (6)
€44m
SM (4)
€29m
DYN (6)
€23m
FK (4)
€20m
LOK (7)
€18m
RUB (9)
€13m
BAL (10)
€13m
KS (6)
€8m
AKR (6)
€8m
FO (10)
€6m
DM (4)
€3m
AKH (6)
€3m
FR (4)
€3m
FC Orenburg's midfield is €12m less valuable than Lokomotiv's (€6m vs €18m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (18)
€51m
CM (12)
€44m
DYN (17)
€41m
FK (12)
€41m
LOK (12)
€41m
SM (11)
€32m
RUB (13)
€22m
FR (15)
€17m
BAL (14)
€16m
DM (15)
€13m
AKH (15)
€13m
KS (13)
€11m
AKR (14)
€11m
FO (17)
€9m
FC Orenburg's defence is €32m less valuable than Lokomotiv's (€9m vs €41m).
🤝 7. Games History
Head-to-head
FC Orenburg vs Lokomotiv · H/A from FO
Date
H/A
Game
Score
18/04/26
H
FO Vs Lokomotiv
0-1
09/11/25
A
Lokomotiv Vs FO
1-0
FC Orenburg
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
02/08/26
H
FO Vs Zenit
0-3
26/07/26
H
FO Vs FC Rostov
2-1
17/05/26
A
FC Krasnodar Vs FO
3-0
10/05/26
H
FO Vs Krylia Sovetov
1-0
03/05/26
A
FC Sochi Vs FO
3-1
25/04/26
A
FC Rostov Vs FO
0-1
22/04/26
H
FO Vs Nizhny Novgorod
2-1
18/04/26
H
FO Vs Lokomotiv
0-1
11/04/26
A
Rubin Vs FO
0-0
04/04/26
A
Dynamo Vs FO
3-3
Lokomotiv
Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
Date
H/A
Game
Score
01/08/26
A
Dinamo Makhachkala Vs LOK
2-1
26/07/26
H
LOK Vs Akhmat
1-1
17/05/26
A
CSKA Moscow Vs LOK
3-1
10/05/26
H
LOK Vs Baltika
1-0
01/05/26
H
LOK Vs Dynamo
1-1
25/04/26
A
Krylia Sovetov Vs LOK
2-0
22/04/26
H
LOK Vs Zenit
0-0
18/04/26
A
FC Orenburg Vs LOK
0-1
12/04/26
H
LOK Vs Dinamo Makhachkala
1-1
05/04/26
A
Spartak Moscow Vs LOK
2-1
📊 8. Overall Statistics
FC Orenburg
Russia: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
LWLWL
1.00
Home
LWWWL
1.35
Away
DDWLL
0.60
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
25%
35%
13%
AVG goals
2.47
2.24
2.73
Over 2.5 %
47%
47%
47%
Scored
0.97
1.06
0.87
Conceded
1.50
1.18
1.87
BTTS
47%
47%
47%
Clean Sheet
19%
24%
13%
Failed to Score
44%
41%
47%
Lokomotiv
Russia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
Form
Results
PPG
Overall
DWLDL
1.69
Home
DDDWD
2.00
Away
LWLLL
1.38
Stats
Overall
Home
Away
Win %
44%
50%
38%
AVG goals
3.06
2.88
3.25
Over 2.5 %
53%
50%
56%
Scored
1.75
1.94
1.56
Conceded
1.31
0.94
1.69
BTTS
69%
62%
75%
Clean Sheet
22%
38%
6%
Failed to Score
12%
6%
19%
🏆 9. League Table
Record
Goals
Props / game
Squad value €m
Strengths
Rank
Team
MP
Win%
PPG
GF
GA
GD
G/G
O1.5
O2.5
O3.5
Cor
Cor O%
Crd
Crd O%
Fls
Fls O%
Tot
Att
Mid
Def
Att/g
Def/g
Poss%
1
Zenit
2
100%
3.0
8
0
+8
4.0
100%
100%
50%
10.5
50%
4.5
100%
24.5
50%
204
109
44
51
4.0
0.0
58%
2
FC Krasnodar
2
100%
3.0
6
3
+3
4.5
100%
100%
100%
6.0
0%
4.5
100%
26.5
50%
125
64
20
41
3.0
1.5
64%
3
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
100%
3.0
4
2
+2
3.0
100%
100%
0%
10.0
100%
2.0
0%
23.0
50%
23
6
3
13
2.0
1.0
42%
4
CSKA Moscow
2
50%
2.0
3
2
+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
7.5
0%
2.5
0%
30.5
100%
137
41
52
44
1.5
1.0
60%
5
Spartak Moscow
1
100%
3.0
3
0
+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
16.0
100%
3.0
0%
25.0
100%
119
58
29
32
3.0
0.0
60%
6
FC Rostov
2
50%
1.5
5
4
+1
4.5
100%
100%
50%
10.0
50%
6.5
50%
32.0
100%
37
17
3
17
2.5
2.0
55%
7
Baltika
2
50%
1.5
3
3
+0
3.0
100%
100%
0%
9.0
50%
2.0
0%
26.5
100%
36
8
13
16
1.5
1.5
32%
8
Rubin
2
50%
1.5
3
4
-1
3.5
100%
100%
50%
7.0
0%
4.0
50%
25.5
50%
53
18
13
22
1.5
2.0
32%
9
FC Orenburg
2
50%
1.5
2
4
-2
3.0
100%
100%
0%
8.0
0%
7.0
100%
29.0
100%
25
10
6
9
1.0
2.0
36%
10
Krylia Sovetov
2
0%
1.0
1
1
+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
7.5
0%
3.0
0%
31.0
100%
32
13
8
11
0.5
0.5
39%
11
Akhmat
1
0%
1.0
1
1
+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
7.0
0%
3.0
0%
29.0
100%
32
16
3
13
1.0
1.0
53%
12
Lokomotiv
2
0%
0.5
2
3
-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
8.5
50%
3.0
0%
24.5
50%
111
53
18
41
1.0
1.5
53%
13
Dynamo
2
0%
0.5
1
2
-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
9.0
50%
2.0
0%
27.0
100%
111
46
23
41
0.5
1.0
69%
14
Fakel
2
0%
0.0
3
5
-2
4.0
100%
100%
50%
8.0
50%
2.5
50%
23.5
50%
0
0
0
0
1.5
2.5
50%
15
Rodina Moskva
2
0%
0.0
2
7
-5
4.5
100%
100%
50%
13.5
100%
3.0
0%
30.0
100%
0
0
0
0
1.0
3.5
44%
16
Akron
2
0%
0.0
1
7
-6
4.0
100%
100%
50%
11.0
50%
4.0
50%
19.5
0%
30
11
8
11
0.5
3.5
58%
Russia: Premier League 2026-27 full table · FC Orenburg and Lokomotiv highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.
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