PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 09/08/2026
AC Oulu
AC Oulu
Vs
24%
28%
48%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AC Oulu win
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
HJK Helsinki win
47.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AC OuluAC Oulu

Avg scored 0.90
Avg conceded 1.40
Avg total 2.30
50-5avg 0.9avg 1.4avg total 2.310210021151103021110A·SJKH·FF A·INTH·MARA·VPSH·LAHA·TURH·GNIA·MARH·ILV
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.401.151.081.241.65
vs Stronger (14)1.001.571.170.670.882.25
vs Similar (12)1.501.331.001.502.001.17
vs Weaker (4)1.001.002.001.000.671.00
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki

Avg scored 1.90
Avg conceded 1.60
Avg total 3.50
50-5avg 1.9avg 1.6avg total 3.522121052334004022110H·ILVA·VPSH·MARA·FF H·INTA·MARH·KUPA·LAHH·VPSH·TUR
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.571.931.671.871.47
vs Stronger (6)0.501.830.332.000.671.67
vs Similar (12)1.831.832.291.861.201.80
vs Weaker (12)2.671.172.401.202.861.14
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Oulu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.7%
Under 2.5
53.3%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
No bookmaker prices yet.
No
No bookmaker prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
10.8%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
9.1%
0-0
9.1%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
6.2%
2-2
4.7%
AC Oulu goals ↓
HJK Helsinki goals →
01234
09.1%11%9.1%4.6%1.8%
16.8%13%9.3%4.7%1.8%
24.1%6.2%4.7%2.4%0.9%
31.4%2.1%1.6%0.8%0.3%
40.4%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AC Oulu goals (down), columns = HJK Helsinki goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
KuPS
2.17
Inter Turku
1.89
AC Oulu
1.67
HJK Helsinki
1.65
Gnistan
1.56
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.39
Turku PS
1.39
Ilves
1.22
FF Jaro
0.83
SJK
0.82
Mariehamn
0.28
AC Oulu is 0.02 points better than HJK Helsinki in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.65).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.83
HJK Helsinki
1.65
Ilves
1.61
Gnistan
1.50
Inter Turku
1.39
VPS
1.33
Turku PS
1.28
Lahti
1.22
AC Oulu
1.22
SJK
1.12
FF Jaro
0.94
Mariehamn
0.50
AC Oulu is 0.42 goals worse than HJK Helsinki in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.65).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.78
Lahti
0.89
KuPS
0.89
VPS
0.94
Turku PS
1.11
AC Oulu
1.17
HJK Helsinki
1.18
Gnistan
1.22
SJK
1.59
Ilves
1.72
FF Jaro
1.94
Mariehamn
2.17
AC Oulu is 0.01 goals better than HJK Helsinki in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.18).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
AC Oulu is 7.3 percentage points worse than HJK Helsinki in terms of average possession (48% vs 55%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

AC OuluAC Oulu

For 5.0 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.6

🚩 Corners

1609732755334664327279216512871279911A·MARA·VPSH·MARA·LAHA·KUPH·VPSA·HJKA·GNIA·MARH·VPS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2

🟨 Cards

604111523244111115255065211A·MARA·VPSH·MARA·LAHA·KUPH·VPSA·HJKA·GNIA·MARH·VPS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 21.8

⚠️ Fouls

270119918620101471310141476137971420272624202421191621A·MARA·VPSH·MARA·LAHA·KUPH·VPSA·HJKA·GNIA·MARH·VPS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki

For 4.1 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.1

🚩 Corners

160311363475347211514293297127916511H·TURH·KUPA·FF H·ILVA·GNIH·AC H·SJKA·GNIA·ILVH·INT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.4

🟨 Cards

5011233131421111154352111H·TURH·KUPA·FF H·ILVA·GNIH·AC H·SJKA·GNIA·ILVH·INT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.6 · Against 8.6 · Total 16.2

⚠️ Fouls

25068131291111178714616975525144212225212216107H·TURH·KUPA·FF H·ILVA·GNIH·AC H·SJKA·GNIA·ILVH·INT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AC OuluAC Oulu

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (45)10.111.58.91.61.91.322.725.020.8
vs Stronger (21)10.011.87.81.42.10.823.224.821.2
vs Similar (19)9.810.59.31.31.41.224.225.023.7
vs Weaker (5)10.512.010.03.22.53.719.526.017.3
% over line50%75%30%27%33%21%56%88%30%
% under line50%25%70%73%67%79%44%12%70%
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.18.611.91.21.21.216.915.318.8
vs Stronger (8)6.72.515.00.50.50.510.39.013.0
vs Similar (22)8.68.29.30.81.10.417.117.017.3
vs Weaker (20)12.111.412.72.01.82.218.516.220.5
% over line64%50%80%12%8%16%23%17%30%
% under line36%50%20%88%92%84%77%83%70%
This opponent (AC Oulu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.4
Inter Turku
10.7
Ilves
10.5
Mariehamn
10.5
SJK
10.2
HJK Helsinki
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
KuPS
9.5
VPS
8.8
Turku PS
8.4
Lahti
8.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
SJK
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
Lahti
3.8
Ilves
3.4
VPS
3.3
FF Jaro
3.3
Mariehamn
3.1
HJK Helsinki
2.8
KuPS
2.8
Inter Turku
2.7

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
AC Oulu
22.7
Lahti
22.6
Gnistan
22.6
VPS
22.3
Turku PS
21.8
Mariehamn
20.3
Inter Turku
19.6
KuPS
19.4
SJK
19.2
Ilves
18.9
FF Jaro
18.4
HJK Helsinki
16.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
71.4%
Under 9.5
28.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.0%
Under 3.5
42.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.9%
Under 21.5
46.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 3.574.9%-------
Over 1.573.3%-------
Over 9.5 corners71.4%-------

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (26)
€6m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (22)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (21)
€2m
MAR (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
AC Oulu's squad is €3m less valuable than HJK Helsinki's (€4m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (6)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
ILV (4)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (2)
€0m
AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (11)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
AC Oulu's defence is €2m less valuable than HJK Helsinki's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki · H/A from AO
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26AHJK Helsinki Vs AO0-1
20/07/25AHJK Helsinki Vs AO3-1
14/06/25HAO Vs HJK Helsinki0-4

AC OuluAC Oulu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/08/26HAO Vs Ilves1-0
25/07/26AMariehamn Vs AO1-1
18/07/26HAO Vs Gnistan0-2
11/07/26ATurku PS Vs AO3-0
27/06/26HAO Vs Lahti1-1
23/06/26AVPS Vs AO5-1
18/06/26HAO Vs Mariehamn2-1
13/06/26AInter Turku Vs AO0-0
31/05/26HAO Vs FF Jaro2-1
23/05/26ASJK Vs AO0-1

HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26HHH Vs Turku PS1-0
18/07/26HHH Vs VPS2-1
11/07/26ALahti Vs HH2-0
27/06/26HHH Vs KuPS0-4
23/06/26AMariehamn Vs HH0-4
17/06/26HHH Vs Inter Turku3-3
13/06/26AFF Jaro Vs HH2-5
30/05/26HHH Vs Mariehamn1-0
22/05/26AVPS Vs HH2-1
16/05/26HHH Vs Ilves2-2

📊 8. Overall Statistics

AC Oulu
AC Oulu
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDW1.27
HomeWWDLW1.57
AwayWDLLD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%48%29%
AVG goals2.912.862.96
Over 2.5 %56%52%58%
Scored1.271.291.25
Conceded1.641.571.71
BTTS53%48%58%
Clean Sheet24%24%25%
Failed to Score27%29%25%
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWW1.64
HomeWDLWW1.73
AwayLLWWL1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%50%42%
AVG goals3.603.923.25
Over 2.5 %70%73%67%
Scored2.142.351.92
Conceded1.461.581.33
BTTS58%65%50%
Clean Sheet28%23%33%
Failed to Score20%15%25%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KuPS18
61%
2.2
3316+17
2.7
83%
44%
28%
8.1
33%
1.9
11%
19.9
44%
0
0001.80.9
57%
2Inter Turku18
50%
1.9
2514+11
2.2
72%
33%
17%
10.7
67%
2.3
14%
19.7
57%
5
2121.40.8
58%
3AC Oulu18
50%
1.7
2221+1
2.4
61%
39%
17%
9.5
38%
3.8
62%
22.6
50%
4
1111.21.2
48%
4HJK Helsinki17
47%
1.6
2820+8
2.8
71%
53%
29%
7.0
14%
3.0
43%
18.4
43%
6
2131.61.2
55%
5Gnistan18
44%
1.6
2722+5
2.7
78%
39%
22%
10.1
57%
3.6
50%
24.2
71%
3
1111.51.2
44%
6VPS18
39%
1.5
2417+7
2.3
61%
39%
22%
7.1
30%
3.4
50%
21.8
70%
0
0001.30.9
48%
7Lahti18
39%
1.4
2216+6
2.1
67%
28%
11%
8.3
50%
3.8
60%
22.6
80%
2
1011.20.9
56%
8Turku PS18
39%
1.4
2320+3
2.4
67%
50%
22%
7.7
40%
3.9
60%
20.3
60%
0
0001.31.1
50%
9Ilves18
33%
1.2
2931-2
3.3
78%
67%
56%
8.1
11%
3.0
56%
18.0
44%
4
1121.61.7
49%
10FF Jaro18
17%
0.8
1735-18
2.9
83%
56%
28%
8.4
30%
3.1
40%
19.2
50%
2
1110.91.9
47%
11SJK17
18%
0.8
1927-8
2.7
82%
53%
29%
9.0
57%
3.9
57%
20.4
57%
4
1121.11.6
50%
12Mariehamn18
0%
0.3
939-30
2.7
83%
50%
22%
10.5
70%
3.0
64%
21.3
64%
2
1110.52.2
45%
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026-27 full table · AC Oulu and HJK Helsinki highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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