PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Simulation Picks Fixtures Validation Pythia · model switchable per page
Date: 09/08/2026
Inter Turku
Inter Turku
Vs
43%
41%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Lahti
Lahti
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Referee: -
ModelSwitch to compare calibration & value across engine versions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Inter Turku win
42.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Draw
40.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.
Lahti win
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Inter TurkuInter Turku

Avg scored 1.40
Avg conceded 0.90
Avg total 2.30
30-3avg 1.4avg 0.9avg total 2.331211100331120001210A·ILVH·TURA·KUPH·AC A·HJKH·SJKA·MARA·FF H·GNIA·VPS
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.971.200.871.531.07
vs Stronger (3)1.002.330.003.001.502.00
vs Similar (8)1.250.881.000.601.671.33
vs Weaker (19)1.470.791.440.781.500.80
Clean sheet %37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LahtiLahti

Avg scored 1.50
Avg conceded 0.60
Avg total 2.10
50-5avg 1.5avg 0.6avg total 2.150230100111020200120H·ILVH·SJKA·GNIH·TURA·AC H·GNIH·HJKA·MARA·ILVH·FF
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.220.891.600.800.751.00
vs Stronger (9)1.111.001.600.600.501.50
vs Similar (5)1.201.201.671.330.501.00
vs Weaker (4)1.500.251.500.501.500.00
Clean sheet %39% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

8%17%25%33%29%033%124%210%33%41%50%6+
The model estimates around 1.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (33%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.0%
Under 1.5
62.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.0%
Under 2.5
86.0%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
4.2%
Under 3.5
95.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
21.2%
No
78.8%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Yes
No bookmaker prices yet.
No
No bookmaker prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
28.6%
1-0
22.6%
1-1
11.2%
0-1
10.9%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
4.4%
3-0
2.9%
0-2
2.6%
Inter Turku goals ↓
Lahti goals →
01234
029%11%2.6%0.4%0.0%
123%11%2.2%0.3%0.0%
210%4.4%0.9%0.1%0.0%
32.9%1.2%0.3%0.0%0.0%
40.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inter Turku goals (down), columns = Lahti goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
KuPS
2.17
Inter Turku
1.89
AC Oulu
1.67
HJK Helsinki
1.65
Gnistan
1.56
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.39
Turku PS
1.39
Ilves
1.22
FF Jaro
0.83
SJK
0.82
Mariehamn
0.28
Inter Turku is 0.50 points better than Lahti in terms of average points per game (1.89 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.83
HJK Helsinki
1.65
Ilves
1.61
Gnistan
1.50
Inter Turku
1.39
VPS
1.33
Turku PS
1.28
Lahti
1.22
AC Oulu
1.22
SJK
1.12
FF Jaro
0.94
Mariehamn
0.50
Inter Turku is 0.17 goals better than Lahti in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.22).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.78
Lahti
0.89
KuPS
0.89
VPS
0.94
Turku PS
1.11
AC Oulu
1.17
HJK Helsinki
1.18
Gnistan
1.22
SJK
1.59
Ilves
1.72
FF Jaro
1.94
Mariehamn
2.17
Inter Turku is 0.11 goals better than Lahti in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 0.89).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Inter Turku is 1.8 percentage points better than Lahti in terms of average possession (58% vs 56%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Inter TurkuInter Turku

For 5.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.4

🚩 Corners

130210541076944367992521291013137139117A·SJKH·FF A·GNIA·LAHH·ILVH·VPSA·KUPH·SJKA·HJKA·ILV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.1

🟨 Cards

40221221221111210232342221A·MARA·SJKH·FF A·GNIA·LAHH·ILVH·VPSA·KUPH·SJKA·HJK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 9.0 · Total 18.1

⚠️ Fouls

28011101614116816910813158881252226251425182816207A·MARA·SJKH·FF A·GNIA·LAHH·ILVH·VPSA·KUPH·SJKA·HJK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

LahtiLahti

For 5.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.3

🚩 Corners

1305510316282416635673101318105128133A·MARH·GNIH·TURA·GNIH·SJKH·VPSH·MARH·AC H·INTA·FF
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8

🟨 Cards

601211333123313212241316454536A·MARH·GNIH·TURA·GNIH·SJKH·VPSH·MARH·AC H·INTA·FF
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.1 · Total 22.6

⚠️ Fouls

2701113101523101713813131213141091611132425527212625242524A·MARH·GNIH·TURA·GNIH·SJKH·VPSH·MARH·AC H·INTA·FF
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Inter TurkuInter Turku

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.710.610.81.10.91.219.622.117.9
vs Stronger (5)12.315.011.01.60.52.319.723.018.0
vs Similar (11)8.29.07.50.60.50.818.224.012.5
vs Weaker (34)11.210.411.71.11.11.220.021.219.2
% over line68%62%73%12%12%12%40%50%33%
% under line32%38%27%88%88%88%60%50%67%
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LahtiLahti

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (18)8.38.97.02.12.51.622.621.625.0
vs Stronger (9)6.36.3-1.01.80.018.718.7-
vs Similar (5)9.810.38.03.64.03.024.223.327.0
vs Weaker (4)8.312.06.52.82.03.524.325.024.0
% over line50%57%33%33%40%25%80%71%100%
% under line50%43%67%67%60%75%20%29%0%
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.4
Inter Turku
10.7
Ilves
10.5
Mariehamn
10.5
SJK
10.2
HJK Helsinki
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
KuPS
9.5
VPS
8.8
Turku PS
8.4
Lahti
8.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
SJK
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
Lahti
3.8
Ilves
3.4
VPS
3.3
FF Jaro
3.3
Mariehamn
3.1
HJK Helsinki
2.8
KuPS
2.8
Inter Turku
2.7

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
AC Oulu
22.7
Lahti
22.6
Gnistan
22.6
VPS
22.3
Turku PS
21.8
Mariehamn
20.3
Inter Turku
19.6
KuPS
19.4
SJK
19.2
Ilves
18.9
FF Jaro
18.4
HJK Helsinki
16.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
39.9%
Under 9.5
60.1%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
44.4%
Under 3.5
55.6%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.3%
Under 21.5
32.7%
Best 5 bookmaker prices
Over
No bookmaker prices yet.
Under
No bookmaker prices yet.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best bookmaker prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 3.595.8%-------
Under 2.586.0%-------
BTTS No78.8%-------

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (26)
€6m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (22)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (21)
€2m
MAR (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Inter Turku's squad is €2m more valuable than Lahti's (€5m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Inter Turku's attack is €1m more valuable than Lahti's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (6)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
ILV (4)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (2)
€0m
Inter Turku and Lahti have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (11)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Inter Turku and Lahti have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Inter Turku vs Lahti · H/A from IT
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26ALahti Vs IT0-2

Inter TurkuInter Turku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/08/26AVPS Vs IT0-1
26/07/26HIT Vs Gnistan1-2
19/07/26AFF Jaro Vs IT0-0
27/06/26AMariehamn Vs IT0-2
23/06/26HIT Vs SJK1-1
17/06/26AHJK Helsinki Vs IT3-3
13/06/26HIT Vs AC Oulu0-0
30/05/26AKuPS Vs IT1-1
23/05/26HIT Vs Turku PS2-1
20/05/26AIlves Vs IT1-3

LahtiLahti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26HLAH Vs FF Jaro2-0
26/07/26AIlves Vs LAH1-0
20/07/26AMariehamn Vs LAH0-2
11/07/26HLAH Vs HJK Helsinki2-0
04/07/26HLAH Vs Gnistan1-0
27/06/26AAC Oulu Vs LAH1-1
23/06/26HLAH Vs Turku PS0-0
17/06/26AGnistan Vs LAH1-0
13/06/26HLAH Vs SJK2-3
30/05/26HLAH Vs Ilves5-0

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Inter Turku
Inter Turku
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLW1.90
HomeWWDDL1.96
AwayDDWDW1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%52%52%
AVG goals2.642.522.76
Over 2.5 %50%52%48%
Scored1.701.681.72
Conceded0.940.841.04
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet36%36%36%
Failed to Score16%20%12%
Lahti
Lahti
Finland: Veikkausliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW1.39
HomeLDWWW1.80
AwayLLDWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%50%25%
AVG goals2.112.401.75
Over 2.5 %28%30%25%
Scored1.221.600.75
Conceded0.890.801.00
BTTS39%40%38%
Clean Sheet39%50%25%
Failed to Score28%20%38%

🏆 9. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KuPS18
61%
2.2
3316+17
2.7
83%
44%
28%
8.1
33%
1.9
11%
19.9
44%
0
0001.80.9
57%
2Inter Turku18
50%
1.9
2514+11
2.2
72%
33%
17%
10.7
67%
2.3
14%
19.7
57%
5
2121.40.8
58%
3AC Oulu18
50%
1.7
2221+1
2.4
61%
39%
17%
9.5
38%
3.8
62%
22.6
50%
4
1111.21.2
48%
4HJK Helsinki17
47%
1.6
2820+8
2.8
71%
53%
29%
7.0
14%
3.0
43%
18.4
43%
6
2131.61.2
55%
5Gnistan18
44%
1.6
2722+5
2.7
78%
39%
22%
10.1
57%
3.6
50%
24.2
71%
3
1111.51.2
44%
6VPS18
39%
1.5
2417+7
2.3
61%
39%
22%
7.1
30%
3.4
50%
21.8
70%
0
0001.30.9
48%
7Lahti18
39%
1.4
2216+6
2.1
67%
28%
11%
8.3
50%
3.8
60%
22.6
80%
2
1011.20.9
56%
8Turku PS18
39%
1.4
2320+3
2.4
67%
50%
22%
7.7
40%
3.9
60%
20.3
60%
0
0001.31.1
50%
9Ilves18
33%
1.2
2931-2
3.3
78%
67%
56%
8.1
11%
3.0
56%
18.0
44%
4
1121.61.7
49%
10FF Jaro18
17%
0.8
1735-18
2.9
83%
56%
28%
8.4
30%
3.1
40%
19.2
50%
2
1110.91.9
47%
11SJK17
18%
0.8
1927-8
2.7
82%
53%
29%
9.0
57%
3.9
57%
20.4
57%
4
1121.11.6
50%
12Mariehamn18
0%
0.3
939-30
2.7
83%
50%
22%
10.5
70%
3.0
64%
21.3
64%
2
1110.52.2
45%
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026-27 full table · Inter Turku and Lahti highlighted. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths.

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