This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.14
1.00
0.94
1.81
vs Stronger (16)
1.06
1.31
1.57
0.71
0.67
1.78
vs Similar (14)
1.00
1.57
0.71
1.29
1.29
1.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.0%
Under 2.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.1%
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.8%
1-0 ✓
9.5%
3-0
7.9%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
5.8%
2-2
4.4%
1. FC Heidenheim goals ↓
Erzgebirge Aue goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
3.4%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
1
9.5%
10%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
7.9%
7.0%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
4
4.2%
3.7%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = 1. FC Heidenheim goals (down), columns = Erzgebirge Aue goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.85
SC Paderborn 07
1.68
Union Berlin
1.68
Hamburger SV
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
FC St. Pauli
1.44
Arminia Bielefeld
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.44
Regensburg
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
SV Sandhausen
1.12
Ingolstadt
1.03
1. FC Magdeburg
0.91
Duisburg
0.82
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.44 points better than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
1. FC Köln
2.47
SC Paderborn 07
2.24
Holstein Kiel
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
Regensburg
1.62
Union Berlin
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
FC St. Pauli
1.35
Hamburger SV
1.32
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.32
Erzgebirge Aue
1.26
Ingolstadt
1.26
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Duisburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
1. FC Magdeburg
1.03
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.35 goals better than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union Berlin
0.97
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
1. FC Köln
1.38
Erzgebirge Aue
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.41
SC Paderborn 07
1.47
Arminia Bielefeld
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.47
Holstein Kiel
1.50
SV Sandhausen
1.53
FC St. Pauli
1.56
1. FC Magdeburg
1.56
SV Darmstadt 98
1.56
Regensburg
1.59
Ingolstadt
1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.65
Duisburg
1.91
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.06 goals better than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim
For 5.5 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 3.4 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 11.6 · Total 27.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Erzgebirge Aue
For 4.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 12.3 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Heidenheim
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.1
10.5
4.1
4.0
4.2
29.0
27.8
30.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
11.3
11.5
11.2
4.6
4.6
4.7
27.9
26.3
29.5
vs Weaker (21)
8.9
8.1
9.6
3.3
3.2
3.5
30.5
29.9
31.0
% over line
64%
64%
65%
58%
56%
60%
93%
91%
96%
% under line
36%
36%
35%
42%
44%
40%
7%
9%
4%
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.1
9.4
4.0
3.8
4.1
28.6
28.1
29.0
vs Stronger (28)
9.2
9.0
9.3
3.4
3.6
3.2
27.4
27.5
27.2
vs Similar (22)
9.3
9.2
9.5
4.7
4.1
5.3
29.9
28.9
30.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
59%
35%
66%
60%
72%
91%
100%
83%
% under line
53%
41%
65%
34%
40%
28%
9%
0%
17%
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SC Paderborn 07
13.3
Hamburger SV
11.0
1. FC Köln
10.8
Ingolstadt
10.5
SV Darmstadt 98
10.3
Arminia Bielefeld
10.3
1. FC Heidenheim
10.3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.1
Holstein Kiel
10.0
Regensburg
10.0
VfL Bochum
9.8
Union Berlin
9.6
FC St. Pauli
9.6
Dynamo Dresden
9.5
Erzgebirge Aue
9.2
SV Sandhausen
8.8
Duisburg
8.8
1. FC Magdeburg
7.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SC Paderborn 07
5.5
Regensburg
4.9
1. FC Magdeburg
4.8
1. FC Heidenheim
4.5
Holstein Kiel
4.5
Erzgebirge Aue
4.4
VfL Bochum
4.4
Duisburg
4.4
Dynamo Dresden
4.3
SV Sandhausen
4.3
SV Darmstadt 98
4.2
Ingolstadt
4.2
FC St. Pauli
4.1
Hamburger SV
3.9
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3.9
1. FC Köln
3.8
Union Berlin
3.8
Arminia Bielefeld
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Sandhausen
30.8
Regensburg
30.6
Ingolstadt
30.0
1. FC Heidenheim
29.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
28.9
Union Berlin
28.9
Erzgebirge Aue
28.6
Duisburg
28.3
1. FC Köln
28.2
VfL Bochum
28.0
SC Paderborn 07
27.9
Dynamo Dresden
27.5
Holstein Kiel
27.4
SV Darmstadt 98
27.3
Hamburger SV
27.1
1. FC Magdeburg
26.5
FC St. Pauli
26.1
Arminia Bielefeld
25.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.9%
Under 9.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.5%
Under 3.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.2%
Under 21.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
1. FC Heidenheim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.79
0.36
0.69
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.58
0.78
0.44
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.73
0.80
0.20
1.17
1.17
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.64
0.43
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
0.62
0.86
0.43
0.44
0.78
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.43
0.43
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
1. FC Heidenheim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.14
0.57
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.63
1.33
0.44
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.82
0.80
0.80
0.50
0.83
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.50
0.57
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.69
0.71
0.29
0.22
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.93
0.29
0.86
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
1. FC Heidenheim · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jan Schöppner75%
Mikkel Kaufmann33%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Budu Zivzivadze25%
Marcel Costly25%
Maximilian Breunig25%
Oualid Mhamdi25%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Mathias Honsak0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Luca Kerber0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oualid Mhamdi50%
Luca Kerber33%
Patrick Mainka25%
Mathias Honsak25%
Jan Schöppner25%
Mikkel Kaufmann0%
Budu Zivzivadze0%
Marnon Busch0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Marcel Costly0%
Maximilian Breunig0%
Marvin Pieringer0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikkel Kaufmann33%
Jonas Föhrenbach33%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Luca Kerber33%
Paul Hennrich33%
Mathias Honsak25%
Marcel Costly25%
Budu Zivzivadze0%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Jan Schöppner0%
Maximilian Breunig0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Frank Feller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mikkel Kaufmann67%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Budu Zivzivadze25%
Marcel Costly25%
Maximilian Breunig25%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Mathias Honsak0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Jan Schöppner0%
Luca Kerber0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (74)
€133m
UB (29)
€123m
HS (28)
€117m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
1. FC Heidenheim's squad is €31m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€33m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (25)
€72m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
1. FC Heidenheim's attack is €14m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€15m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
UB (6)
€26m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
1. FC Heidenheim's midfield is €6m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€7m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
1FK (33)
€43m
HS (12)
€37m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FH (11)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
1. FC Heidenheim's defence is €11m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€12m vs €1m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Köln
SC Paderborn 07
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
FC St. Pauli
SV Darmstadt 98
VfL Bochum
Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SV Sandhausen
Ingolstadt
1. FC Magdeburg
Duisburg