This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.37
1.93
1.07
0.73
1.67
vs Stronger (16)
1.12
1.69
1.86
1.43
0.56
1.89
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.0%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.8%
@ 1.95+3.3%
Under 2.5
48.2%
@ 1.84-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.3%
No
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.9%
1-0
11.9%
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.6%
3-0 ✓
8.6%
0-0
7.4%
3-1
6.4%
4-0
4.3%
1. FC Heidenheim goals ↓
Erzgebirge Aue goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
3.8%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
1
12%
10%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.6%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
8.6%
6.4%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
4
4.3%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = 1. FC Heidenheim goals (down), columns = Erzgebirge Aue goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arminia Bielefeld
2.00
VfB Stuttgart
1.71
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
Hamburger SV
1.59
SV Darmstadt 98
1.53
Hannover 96
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.38
VfL Bochum
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.26
Regensburg
1.26
VfL Osnabrück
1.18
FC St. Pauli
1.15
Karlsruher SC
1.09
1. FC Nürnberg
1.09
Wehen
1.00
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.24 points better than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Arminia Bielefeld
1.91
Hamburger SV
1.82
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
Hannover 96
1.59
Holstein Kiel
1.56
VfL Bochum
1.56
Regensburg
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98
1.41
VfL Osnabrück
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.35
Erzgebirge Aue
1.35
Karlsruher SC
1.32
Wehen
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.26
FC St. Pauli
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.03 goals worse than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arminia Bielefeld
0.88
1. FC Heidenheim
1.06
VfB Stuttgart
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98
1.26
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.32
Hamburger SV
1.35
VfL Osnabrück
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.41
Hannover 96
1.44
FC St. Pauli
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.50
Karlsruher SC
1.65
Holstein Kiel
1.65
Regensburg
1.65
Dynamo Dresden
1.71
1. FC Nürnberg
1.71
Wehen
1.91
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.35 goals better than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim
For 6.0 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 12.1 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Erzgebirge Aue
For 2.9 · Against 6.2 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.4 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 10.9 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Heidenheim
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.0
10.2
3.5
3.1
4.0
23.9
22.6
25.1
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
13.0
8.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
20.5
20.0
21.0
vs Similar (27)
10.6
10.6
10.5
3.3
2.9
3.8
23.8
23.7
23.8
vs Weaker (21)
10.6
11.4
9.9
3.9
3.6
4.2
24.3
21.3
27.0
% over line
58%
68%
48%
48%
32%
64%
70%
60%
80%
% under line
42%
32%
52%
52%
68%
36%
30%
40%
20%
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.2
9.3
5.4
5.8
4.9
26.7
27.4
25.8
vs Stronger (28)
9.6
10.1
9.1
5.4
5.9
4.9
25.8
26.9
24.6
vs Similar (22)
9.9
10.2
9.6
5.3
5.7
4.9
27.8
28.1
27.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
50%
38%
84%
85%
83%
80%
85%
75%
% under line
56%
50%
62%
16%
15%
17%
20%
15%
25%
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Regensburg
11.6
Holstein Kiel
11.5
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
11.1
SV Sandhausen
10.8
Karlsruher SC
10.7
1. FC Heidenheim
10.6
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
VfL Bochum
10.5
VfB Stuttgart
10.5
1. FC Nürnberg
10.4
Hannover 96
10.1
FC St. Pauli
10.1
Wehen
10.0
Hamburger SV
9.9
Erzgebirge Aue
9.7
VfL Osnabrück
9.7
Arminia Bielefeld
9.7
Dynamo Dresden
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Erzgebirge Aue
5.4
VfL Osnabrück
5.2
SV Sandhausen
4.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.6
Wehen
4.6
Karlsruher SC
4.6
Dynamo Dresden
4.5
Regensburg
4.4
VfB Stuttgart
4.3
VfL Bochum
4.2
SV Darmstadt 98
4.2
Hannover 96
4.1
1. FC Nürnberg
3.9
FC St. Pauli
3.9
Arminia Bielefeld
3.9
Holstein Kiel
3.8
Hamburger SV
3.7
1. FC Heidenheim
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
28.3
Dynamo Dresden
27.8
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
27.8
VfL Osnabrück
27.3
VfL Bochum
27.0
SV Sandhausen
27.0
Erzgebirge Aue
26.7
SV Darmstadt 98
25.6
Karlsruher SC
25.6
Hannover 96
25.5
FC St. Pauli
24.9
Holstein Kiel
24.5
Hamburger SV
24.2
Wehen
24.2
1. FC Heidenheim
23.9
VfB Stuttgart
23.8
Arminia Bielefeld
23.7
1. FC Nürnberg
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.9%
Under 9.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
62.1%
Under 3.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.9%
Under 21.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
1. FC Heidenheim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.73
0.20
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.60
1.00
0.38
0.00
0.86
vs Weaker (13)
0.46
0.15
0.50
0.00
0.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.93
0.33
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
0.50
0.57
0.29
0.22
0.67
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
1.25
0.38
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
1. FC Heidenheim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
1.07
0.67
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.33
1.12
0.38
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
1.00
0.83
0.83
1.14
1.14
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
1.00
0.73
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
1.19
1.29
1.14
0.33
1.22
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.43
0.75
0.38
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
1. FC Heidenheim · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jan Schöppner75%
Mikkel Kaufmann33%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Budu Zivzivadze25%
Marcel Costly25%
Maximilian Breunig25%
Oualid Mhamdi25%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Mathias Honsak0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Luca Kerber0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oualid Mhamdi50%
Luca Kerber33%
Patrick Mainka25%
Mathias Honsak25%
Jan Schöppner25%
Mikkel Kaufmann0%
Budu Zivzivadze0%
Marnon Busch0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Marcel Costly0%
Maximilian Breunig0%
Marvin Pieringer0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikkel Kaufmann33%
Jonas Föhrenbach33%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Luca Kerber33%
Paul Hennrich33%
Mathias Honsak25%
Marcel Costly25%
Budu Zivzivadze0%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Jan Schöppner0%
Maximilian Breunig0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Frank Feller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mikkel Kaufmann67%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Budu Zivzivadze25%
Marcel Costly25%
Maximilian Breunig25%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Mathias Honsak0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Jan Schöppner0%
Luca Kerber0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (54)
€430m
HS (28)
€117m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
VO (25)
€10m
EA (18)
€2m
1. FC Heidenheim's squad is €31m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€33m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (19)
€193m
HS (11)
€46m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
VO (9)
€5m
SGF (6)
€4m
EA (5)
€1m
1. FC Heidenheim's attack is €14m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€15m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (10)
€92m
HS (5)
€34m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
VO (7)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
1. FC Heidenheim's midfield is €6m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€7m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (25)
€145m
HS (12)
€37m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SGF (10)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
VO (9)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
1. FC Heidenheim's defence is €11m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€12m vs €1m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Arminia Bielefeld
VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
Hannover 96
VfL Bochum
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SV Sandhausen
Holstein Kiel
VfL Osnabrück
FC St. Pauli
Karlsruher SC
1. FC Nürnberg
Dynamo Dresden