This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
2.07
0.88
1.88
1.07
2.29
vs Stronger (21)
0.86
2.29
0.82
2.27
0.90
2.30
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.56
1.00
1.00
1.50
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.4%
@ 1.69+8.5%
Under 2.5
35.6%
@ 2.14-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.3%
Under 3.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.3%
3-0
9.4%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
8.3%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
7.7%
4-0
5.8%
4-1
4.8%
1. FC Heidenheim goals ↓
Erzgebirge Aue goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
2.2%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
1
8.3%
8.2%
3.1%
0.8%
0.2%
2
11%
9.3%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
9.4%
7.7%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
4
5.8%
4.8%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = 1. FC Heidenheim goals (down), columns = Erzgebirge Aue goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Schalke 04
1.91
Werder Bremen
1.85
Hamburger SV
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.53
SC Paderborn 07
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Holstein Kiel
1.32
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Hannover 96
1.24
Karlsruher SC
1.21
Hansa Rostock
1.21
SV Sandhausen
1.21
Regensburg
1.18
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Erzgebirge Aue
0.76
Ingolstadt
0.62
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.76 points better than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 0.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Schalke 04
2.12
SV Darmstadt 98
2.09
Hamburger SV
1.97
Werder Bremen
1.91
FC St. Pauli
1.79
SC Paderborn 07
1.65
Karlsruher SC
1.59
Regensburg
1.47
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.35
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.24
Hansa Rostock
1.21
Hannover 96
1.03
Dynamo Dresden
0.97
Erzgebirge Aue
0.94
Ingolstadt
0.88
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.32 goals better than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamburger SV
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.24
Werder Bremen
1.26
SC Paderborn 07
1.29
FC Schalke 04
1.29
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.35
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
Dynamo Dresden
1.35
Hannover 96
1.44
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Regensburg
1.50
Hansa Rostock
1.53
Holstein Kiel
1.59
SV Sandhausen
1.59
Karlsruher SC
1.62
Ingolstadt
1.91
Erzgebirge Aue
2.12
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.79 goals better than Erzgebirge Aue in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 2.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim
For 5.0 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 9.5 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Erzgebirge Aue
For 3.8 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.7 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Heidenheim
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.4
10.6
3.5
4.0
3.1
21.0
20.5
21.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
10.6
11.2
10.1
3.5
3.9
3.1
21.0
20.1
22.0
vs Weaker (17)
11.6
12.0
11.4
3.6
4.4
3.1
21.1
21.7
20.6
% over line
62%
62%
62%
48%
58%
38%
48%
38%
58%
% under line
38%
38%
38%
52%
42%
62%
52%
62%
42%
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.2
8.9
4.2
3.7
4.6
24.3
22.4
26.3
vs Stronger (34)
8.9
8.2
9.6
3.9
3.6
4.2
23.3
22.2
24.5
vs Similar (16)
9.5
11.5
7.5
4.8
4.1
5.5
26.5
23.0
30.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
50%
33%
58%
50%
67%
76%
69%
83%
% under line
58%
50%
67%
42%
50%
33%
24%
31%
17%
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamburger SV
11.1
1. FC Heidenheim
11.0
Hannover 96
10.7
SV Sandhausen
10.3
1. FC Nürnberg
10.3
FC Schalke 04
10.1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.1
Holstein Kiel
9.9
SC Paderborn 07
9.9
Werder Bremen
9.8
Karlsruher SC
9.7
Dynamo Dresden
9.7
SV Darmstadt 98
9.6
Hansa Rostock
9.4
Ingolstadt
9.3
FC St. Pauli
9.3
Regensburg
9.2
Erzgebirge Aue
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dynamo Dresden
4.5
SV Darmstadt 98
4.5
Hansa Rostock
4.5
SV Sandhausen
4.4
Regensburg
4.3
Hamburger SV
4.3
SC Paderborn 07
4.2
Ingolstadt
4.2
Werder Bremen
4.2
Erzgebirge Aue
4.2
1. FC Nürnberg
4.1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.0
Holstein Kiel
4.0
Karlsruher SC
3.9
Hannover 96
3.8
FC Schalke 04
3.8
FC St. Pauli
3.7
1. FC Heidenheim
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
27.7
Ingolstadt
26.8
SV Darmstadt 98
25.2
Erzgebirge Aue
24.3
Hansa Rostock
24.0
Werder Bremen
23.9
SV Sandhausen
23.8
FC St. Pauli
23.6
Hannover 96
23.6
Fortuna Düsseldorf
23.6
Karlsruher SC
23.5
Hamburger SV
23.5
1. FC Nürnberg
23.0
FC Schalke 04
23.0
Dynamo Dresden
22.9
SC Paderborn 07
22.7
Holstein Kiel
21.9
1. FC Heidenheim
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.1%
Under 9.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.3%
Under 3.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
59.1%
Under 21.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
1. FC Heidenheim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.33
0.80
0.27
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.35
0.80
0.30
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.30
0.80
0.20
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
1.00
0.31
0.81
0.21
1.21
vs Stronger (21)
0.29
1.10
0.36
1.09
0.20
1.10
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.78
0.20
0.20
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
1. FC Heidenheim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.03
0.87
0.73
0.60
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
1.25
0.80
0.80
0.50
1.70
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.60
1.00
0.60
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzgebirge Aue) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Erzgebirge Aue
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.07
0.56
1.06
0.86
1.07
vs Stronger (21)
0.57
1.19
0.45
1.18
0.70
1.20
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.78
0.80
0.80
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzgebirge Aue over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
73.1%
1.51
-
-
-
-
-
+10.7%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
1. FC Heidenheim · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jan Schöppner75%
Mikkel Kaufmann33%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Budu Zivzivadze25%
Marcel Costly25%
Maximilian Breunig25%
Oualid Mhamdi25%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Mathias Honsak0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Luca Kerber0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oualid Mhamdi50%
Luca Kerber33%
Patrick Mainka25%
Mathias Honsak25%
Jan Schöppner25%
Mikkel Kaufmann0%
Budu Zivzivadze0%
Marnon Busch0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Marcel Costly0%
Maximilian Breunig0%
Marvin Pieringer0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mikkel Kaufmann33%
Jonas Föhrenbach33%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Luca Kerber33%
Paul Hennrich33%
Mathias Honsak25%
Marcel Costly25%
Budu Zivzivadze0%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Jan Schöppner0%
Maximilian Breunig0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Frank Feller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mikkel Kaufmann67%
Marvin Pieringer33%
Budu Zivzivadze25%
Marcel Costly25%
Maximilian Breunig25%
Marnon Busch0%
Patrick Mainka0%
Mathias Honsak0%
Jonas Föhrenbach0%
Jan Schöppner0%
Luca Kerber0%
Oualid Mhamdi0%
Frank Feller0%
Paul Hennrich0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
DD (26)
€19m
FD (26)
€10m
HR (27)
€8m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
1. FC Heidenheim's squad is €31m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€33m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (13)
€50m
HS (11)
€46m
FS0 (8)
€17m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
DD (8)
€6m
HR (10)
€3m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
1. FC Heidenheim's attack is €14m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€15m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
FS0 (8)
€24m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
HR (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
1. FC Heidenheim's midfield is €6m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€7m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
FD (13)
€5m
HR (13)
€3m
ING (12)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
1. FC Heidenheim's defence is €11m more valuable than Erzgebirge Aue's (€12m vs €1m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Schalke 04
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
FC St. Pauli
SC Paderborn 07
1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Hannover 96
Karlsruher SC
Hansa Rostock
SV Sandhausen
Dynamo Dresden
Ingolstadt