Pythia gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 28% win probability against FSV Mainz 05 in the Germany: Bundesliga on 2026-05-16, with 24% for the draw and 48% for FSV Mainz 05. The model estimates around 3.4 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (10.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 25.5 fouls (90%), Over 1.5 (86%), Under 23.5 fouls (80%), Under 5.5 cards (79%).
Results analysis
1. FC Heidenheim finished 0-2 against FSV Mainz 05 (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 28% home win, 24% draw and 48% away win. Picks that landed: Under 25.5 fouls (90%), Over 1.5 (86%), Under 23.5 fouls (80%), Under 5.5 cards (79%), Under 11.5 corners (77%). Missed: Over 2.5 cards (76%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim win✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 49.6% · @ 1.88
Edge
-21.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied 22.5% · @ 4.14
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FSV Mainz 05 win✓ Hit
48.4%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.35
Edge
+20.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.10
1.57
2.14
1.12
2.06
vs Stronger (10)
1.40
2.90
1.60
2.80
1.20
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.70
1.56
1.78
1.09
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FSV Mainz 05
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.37
1.53
1.07
1.07
1.67
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
2.18
1.75
1.75
0.86
2.43
vs Similar (19)
1.37
0.89
1.45
0.82
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.5%
@ 1.42-0.1%
Under 2.5
34.5%
@ 2.71+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.6%
Under 3.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.2%
No
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
6.9%
2-2
6.6%
0-2 ✓
6.4%
1-3
6.0%
0-1
5.7%
0-0
4.4%
1. FC Heidenheim goals ↓
FSV Mainz 05 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
5.7%
6.4%
4.2%
2.0%
1
4.0%
10%
9.2%
6.0%
2.9%
2
3.5%
6.9%
6.6%
4.3%
2.1%
3
1.7%
3.3%
3.2%
2.0%
1.0%
4
0.6%
1.2%
1.1%
0.7%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = 1. FC Heidenheim goals (down), columns = FSV Mainz 05 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
SC Paderborn 07
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
VfL Wolfsburg
0.83
FC St. Pauli
0.76
1. FC Heidenheim
0.76
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.41 points worse than FSV Mainz 05 in terms of average points per game (0.76 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
Union Berlin
1.29
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
VfL Wolfsburg
1.28
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.18
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC St. Pauli
0.85
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.09 goals worse than FSV Mainz 05 in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
RB Leipzig
1.38
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
VfL Wolfsburg
1.97
1. FC Heidenheim
2.12
1. FC Heidenheim is 0.56 goals worse than FSV Mainz 05 in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
VfL Wolfsburg
45%
Hamburger SV
45%
FC St. Pauli
44%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
1. FC Heidenheim
42%
Union Berlin
40%
1. FC Heidenheim is 1.7 percentage points worse than FSV Mainz 05 in terms of average possession (42% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim
For 3.7 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 10.2 · Total 18.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FSV Mainz 05
For 5.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.7 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Heidenheim
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.8
9.5
3.6
3.2
4.0
21.4
21.8
21.1
vs Stronger (18)
8.9
7.3
10.4
3.7
3.6
3.8
21.8
21.2
22.3
vs Similar (32)
9.3
9.7
8.9
3.6
3.0
4.2
21.2
22.1
20.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
32%
48%
56%
44%
68%
48%
52%
44%
% under line
60%
68%
52%
44%
56%
32%
52%
48%
56%
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FSV Mainz 05
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.7
9.1
4.4
4.1
4.8
22.0
23.0
20.8
vs Stronger (18)
8.8
9.1
8.6
4.8
4.4
5.2
23.5
25.7
21.3
vs Similar (32)
9.7
10.0
9.4
4.2
3.9
4.5
21.1
21.6
20.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
54%
42%
62%
58%
67%
52%
58%
46%
% under line
52%
46%
58%
38%
42%
33%
48%
42%
54%
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
VfL Wolfsburg
11.2
RB Leipzig
10.5
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.2
VfB Stuttgart
9.9
SC Paderborn 07
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.8
FC Augsburg
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
Union Berlin
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
1. FC Heidenheim
9.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.1
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
1. FC Köln
4.5
FSV Mainz 05
4.4
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
VfB Stuttgart
4.0
1899 Hoffenheim
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.8
1. FC Heidenheim
3.8
VfL Wolfsburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
FC St. Pauli
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.5
Hamburger SV
24.0
SC Freiburg
23.0
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.5
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FSV Mainz 05
22.0
FC Augsburg
22.0
Union Berlin
21.8
1. FC Heidenheim
21.4
Werder Bremen
20.7
1. FC Köln
20.6
VfL Wolfsburg
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.3
FC St. Pauli
20.2
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.6
Bayern München
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.6%
Under 9.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.2%
Under 3.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
33.8%
Under 21.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
1. FC Heidenheim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.93
0.57
0.86
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.50
0.40
1.40
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.65
0.67
0.56
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FSV Mainz 05
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.73
0.27
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.91
1.50
0.00
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.32
0.45
0.36
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Heidenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
1. FC Heidenheim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Germany: Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →