A 1. FC Köln victory is the model’s pick, with a 47% chance of a home win, 26% for a draw and 28% for a Werder Bremen win. The expected total is three goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.9% chance. Köln’s home form shows an average of two goals scored and 1.67 conceded against similar opposition, while Bremen’s away record averages 1.17 scored and 1.58 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4%, Under 7.5 at 97.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.8%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.7%, Under 6.5 at 94.4%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 93.1%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 88.2%. Köln comes off a win, whereas Bremen follows four straight defeats.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
1. FC Köln win
47.4%
Avg Implied 46.0% · @ 2.04
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.12
Unibet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Dafabet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.66
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.86
Marathonbet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.73
Betano
3.70
Werder Bremen win
27.0%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.31
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.45
Betano
3.45
Dafabet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
1. FC Köln
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.87
1.75
1.81
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
2.50
1.00
2.25
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (22)
1.64
1.64
2.00
1.67
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Werder Bremen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.67
1.07
1.67
0.93
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
2.17
0.33
2.33
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.21
1.54
1.25
1.50
1.17
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Köln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.7%
@ 1.18+2.5%
Under 1.5
18.3%
@ 4.52-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
Unibet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.6%
@ 1.62-0.1%
Under 2.5
41.4%
@ 2.30+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.69
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.36
Betano
2.32
Bet365
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.30
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.2%
@ 2.50-1.5%
Under 3.5
63.8%
@ 1.51+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Under
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Unibet
1.49
Both teams to score
Yes
60.9%
@ 1.52-0.3%
No
39.1%
@ 2.40+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.55
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
No
10Bet
2.45
Unibet
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 6.83+5.3%
2-1
9.5%@ 8.11+3.9%
2-0
7.4%@ 10.98+3.3%
1-0
7.3%@ 9.35+2.5%
1-2
6.9%@ 10.51+2.6%
2-2
6.1%@ 10.84+1.9%
0-0
5.9%@ 13.82+2.6%
3-1
5.5%@ 13.25+2.1%
1. FC Köln goals ↓
Werder Bremen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
5.1%
3.9%
1.7%
0.5%
1
7.3%
12%
6.9%
3.0%
1.0%
2
7.4%
9.5%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.3%
5.5%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.9%
2.4%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = 1. FC Köln goals (down), columns = Werder Bremen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen are level in average points per game (both 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
1. FC Köln is 0.35 goals better than Werder Bremen in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
1. FC Köln is 0.09 goals worse than Werder Bremen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 1.76).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
1. FC Köln is 4.1 percentage points worse than Werder Bremen in terms of average possession (47% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
1. FC Köln
For 5.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 8.8 · Total 17.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Werder Bremen
For 4.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 10.1 · Total 19.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1. FC Köln
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.0
10.3
4.1
4.1
4.2
20.6
21.1
20.1
vs Stronger (11)
11.4
10.6
12.2
2.8
3.0
2.7
16.9
17.8
16.0
vs Similar (33)
9.6
9.5
9.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
20.8
20.9
20.6
vs Weaker (6)
10.8
11.7
10.0
2.2
1.3
3.0
25.8
27.3
24.3
% over line
51%
44%
58%
58%
56%
60%
45%
56%
33%
% under line
49%
56%
42%
42%
44%
40%
55%
44%
67%
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Werder Bremen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.4
10.4
4.2
4.1
4.3
20.4
20.8
20.1
vs Stronger (12)
10.0
8.2
11.5
3.6
3.2
4.0
17.9
19.2
16.8
vs Similar (38)
9.3
8.5
10.1
4.4
4.4
4.4
21.1
21.2
21.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
50%
64%
64%
60%
68%
43%
46%
40%
% under line
43%
50%
36%
36%
40%
32%
57%
54%
60%
This opponent (1. FC Köln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.1%
@ 1.74+5.3%
Under 9.5
41.9%
@ 1.95-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.74
Under
Unibet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.6%
Under 3.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
36.7%
Under 21.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
1. FC Köln or Draw
69.1%
Avg Implied 71.5% · @ 1.32
Edge
-2.4%
47%
26%
27%
covers 1. FC Köln + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.35
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Betano
1.34
1. FC Köln or Werder Bremen
75.7%
Avg Implied 74.9% · @ 1.26
Edge
+0.8%
47%
26%
27%
covers 1. FC Köln + Werder Bremen
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Draw or Werder Bremen
55.2%
Avg Implied 53.6% · @ 1.76
Edge
+1.6%
47%
26%
27%
covers Draw + Werder Bremen
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.80
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
1. FC Köln over/under 0.5
Over
84.4%
@ 1.14+3.0%
Under
15.6%
@ 4.97-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.65
1xBet
4.60
1. FC Köln over/under 1.5
Over
55.4%
@ 1.79+3.2%
Under
44.6%
@ 1.96-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.82
Unibet
1.81
Betano
1.78
Under
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.95
1. FC Köln over/under 2.5
Over
28.5%
@ 3.49+1.8%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.27-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.54
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
1. FC Köln over/under 3.5
Over
11.8%
@ 7.62-0.4%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.06+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
1xBet
7.80
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Werder Bremen over/under 0.5
Over
78.2%
@ 1.28+5.6%
Under
21.8%
@ 3.40-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.48
Unibet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.34
Werder Bremen over/under 1.5
Over
45.0%
@ 2.39+5.8%
Under
55.0%
@ 1.54-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Betano
2.40
10Bet
2.38
Under
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.54
Unibet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
10Bet
1.53
Werder Bremen over/under 2.5
Over
19.7%
@ 5.59+3.0%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.12-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
1xBet
5.85
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Werder Bremen over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
@ 12.75-0.5%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.02+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
12.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to 1. FC Köln, so a minus line means 1. FC Köln give that many goals of a start and Werder Bremen receive them. At -1, 1. FC Köln must win by two or more to land; a one-goal 1. FC Köln win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (1. FC Köln)
1. FC Köln -2
11.3%
@ 7.38-0.9%
Draw -2
13.8%
@ 5.84-1.6%
Werder Bremen +2
74.9%
@ 1.24+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Unibet
5.75
10Bet
5.50
Away
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Handicap -1 (1. FC Köln)
1. FC Köln -1
25.1%
@ 3.52-0.4%
Draw -1
19.7%
@ 3.89-3.4%
Werder Bremen +1
55.2%
@ 1.74+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Unibet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Away
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Handicap +1 (1. FC Köln)
1. FC Köln +1
69.1%
@ 1.32+0.7%
Draw +1
16.0%
@ 5.08-1.8%
Werder Bremen -1
14.9%
@ 6.52+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.70
Away
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.00
Handicap +2 (1. FC Köln)
1. FC Köln +2
85.1%
@ 1.08+2.9%
Draw +2
9.3%
@ 8.09-1.7%
Werder Bremen -2
5.7%
@ 13.00-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Bet365
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Unibet
12.50
Marathonbet
6.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
1. FC Köln
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.56
0.81
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.73
0.67
0.75
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Werder Bremen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.70
0.27
0.80
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.75
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Köln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.1%
@ 1.29+0.7%
Under 0.5
26.9%
@ 3.40-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.7%
@ 2.35-3.1%
Under 1.5
63.3%
@ 1.56+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
William Hil
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.39
Under
William Hil
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.9%
@ 5.38-1.5%
Under 2.5
84.1%
@ 1.13+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Unibet
5.40
1xBet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
1. FC Köln over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.8%
@ 1.74-1.7%
Under
48.2%
@ 2.00+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Betano
1.98
1. FC Köln over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.1%
@ 4.69+0.3%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.15-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Unibet
4.80
Betano
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
1. FC Köln over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.0%
@ 10.25-5.1%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Werder Bremen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.6%
@ 2.10-2.8%
Under
58.4%
@ 1.67+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Werder Bremen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.7%
@ 6.51-2.6%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.08+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.00
1xBet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.30
Unibet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
Werder Bremen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
@ 12.50-5.4%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
1. FC Köln
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.07
1.19
1.00
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.25
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.91
1.33
0.92
0.70
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Werder Bremen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.80
0.87
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.88
0.92
0.75
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (1. FC Köln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.6%
@ 1.16+2.2%
Under 0.5
17.4%
@ 4.79-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Under
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Unibet
4.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.6%
@ 1.82-1.1%
Under 1.5
49.4%
@ 1.94+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
William Hil
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
Under
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Unibet
1.93
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.9%
@ 3.51-4.8%
Under 2.5
78.1%
@ 1.27+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Under
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
1. FC Köln over/under 0.5 2H
Over
63.8%
@ 1.50+1.6%
Under
36.2%
@ 2.48-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.45
1. FC Köln over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.8%
@ 3.29-4.3%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.29+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1. FC Köln over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.0%
@ 8.30-5.1%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.04+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.20
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
Werder Bremen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.0%
@ 1.77-0.5%
Under
48.0%
@ 1.96+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Werder Bremen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.8%
@ 4.74-3.8%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.16+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
4.90
Betano
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Werder Bremen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.3%
@ 10.00-6.0%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Under 7.5
97.8%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+1.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.0%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
Under 6.5
94.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+0.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+0.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.08
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
+2.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
88.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+0.4%
Under 25.5 fouls
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.3%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-1.2%
Home +2 handicap
85.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+2.9%
Home over 0.5 goals
84.4%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+3.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-
+3.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.1%
1.13
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+1.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.16
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+2.2%
Over 1.5
81.7%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+2.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
80.3%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
-3.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.9%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
-0.3%
Over 2.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.2%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+5.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.27
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+4.8%
Under 23.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.2%
1.29
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
-
+4.3%
Under 5.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.7%
1.26
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
+0.8%
Away +2 handicap
74.9%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
+2.5%
Under 4.5
74.8%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
-4.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.1%
1.29
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
+0.7%
Home under 2.5 goals
71.5%
1.27
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
-1.8%
Over 8.5 corners
70.2%
1.44
Unibet
1.44
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
1. FC Köln · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Said El Mala36%
Ragnar Ache23%
Jakub Kamiński19%
Luca Waldschmidt19%
Marius Bülter15%
Jan Uwe Thielmann11%
Eric Martel9%
Linton Maina8%
Alessio Castro-Montes7%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson6%
Florian Kainz6%
Tom Krauß0%
Marvin Schwäbe0%
Dominique Heintz0%
Joel Schmied0%
Cenk Özkaçar0%
Timo Hübers0%
Kristoffer Lund0%
Sebastian Sebulonsen0%
Denis Huseinbašić0%
Rav van den Berg0%
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey0%
Felipe Chávez0%
Fynn Schenten0%
Youssoupha Niang0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eric Martel36%
Joel Schmied28%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson18%
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey18%
Sebastian Sebulonsen15%
Tom Krauß15%
Jan Uwe Thielmann15%
Alessio Castro-Montes14%
Said El Mala14%
Jakub Kamiński11%
Ragnar Ache10%
Marius Bülter9%
Cenk Özkaçar7%
Denis Huseinbašić6%
Marvin Schwäbe6%
Florian Kainz6%
Kristoffer Lund6%
Linton Maina4%
Luca Waldschmidt4%
Dominique Heintz0%
Timo Hübers0%
Rav van den Berg0%
Felipe Chávez0%
Fynn Schenten0%
Youssoupha Niang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ragnar Ache16%
Luca Waldschmidt15%
Alessio Castro-Montes14%
Said El Mala11%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson9%
Marius Bülter9%
Jakub Kamiński8%
Tom Krauß7%
Rav van den Berg7%
Eric Martel6%
Florian Kainz6%
Kristoffer Lund6%
Jan Uwe Thielmann4%
Marvin Schwäbe0%
Linton Maina0%
Dominique Heintz0%
Joel Schmied0%
Cenk Özkaçar0%
Timo Hübers0%
Sebastian Sebulonsen0%
Denis Huseinbašić0%
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey0%
Felipe Chávez0%
Fynn Schenten0%
Youssoupha Niang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ragnar Ache23%
Jakub Kamiński22%
Said El Mala19%
Marius Bülter12%
Youssoupha Niang10%
Linton Maina8%
Luca Waldschmidt8%
Jan Uwe Thielmann7%
Florian Kainz6%
Tom Krauß0%
Alessio Castro-Montes0%
Marvin Schwäbe0%
Dominique Heintz0%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson0%
Joel Schmied0%
Cenk Özkaçar0%
Timo Hübers0%
Kristoffer Lund0%
Eric Martel0%
Sebastian Sebulonsen0%
Denis Huseinbašić0%
Rav van den Berg0%
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey0%
Felipe Chávez0%
Fynn Schenten0%
Werder Bremen · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jens Stage31%
Jovan Milošević23%
Justin Njinmah15%
Salim Musah12%
Romano Schmid11%
Samuel Mbangula11%
Marco Grüll9%
Patrice Čović6%
Olivier Deman6%
Isaac Schmidt5%
Keke Topp5%
Karim Coulibaly4%
Cameron Puertas4%
Marco Friedl3%
Leonardo Bittencourt0%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Niklas Stark0%
Amos Pieper0%
Felix Agu0%
Yukinari Sugawara0%
Senne Lynen0%
Victor Okoh Boniface0%
Julián Malatini0%
Mio Backhaus0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Niklas Stark40%
Leonardo Bittencourt33%
Marco Friedl32%
Julián Malatini27%
Olivier Deman24%
Cameron Puertas21%
Amos Pieper21%
Keke Topp19%
Jens Stage17%
Senne Lynen16%
Jovan Milošević15%
Karim Coulibaly15%
Marco Grüll15%
Romano Schmid11%
Isaac Schmidt11%
Victor Okoh Boniface9%
Felix Agu8%
Yukinari Sugawara6%
Patrice Čović6%
Justin Njinmah6%
Mio Backhaus3%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Samuel Mbangula0%
Salim Musah0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yukinari Sugawara19%
Victor Okoh Boniface18%
Romano Schmid17%
Olivier Deman12%
Jovan Milošević8%
Samuel Mbangula7%
Cameron Puertas7%
Jens Stage7%
Leonardo Bittencourt6%
Keke Topp5%
Marco Grüll3%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Niklas Stark0%
Amos Pieper0%
Marco Friedl0%
Felix Agu0%
Senne Lynen0%
Justin Njinmah0%
Isaac Schmidt0%
Julián Malatini0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Karim Coulibaly0%
Patrice Čović0%
Salim Musah0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jens Stage17%
Justin Njinmah15%
Salim Musah12%
Romano Schmid11%
Victor Okoh Boniface9%
Cameron Puertas7%
Yukinari Sugawara6%
Marco Grüll3%
Leonardo Bittencourt0%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Niklas Stark0%
Olivier Deman0%
Amos Pieper0%
Marco Friedl0%
Felix Agu0%
Senne Lynen0%
Isaac Schmidt0%
Julián Malatini0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Keke Topp0%
Samuel Mbangula0%
Jovan Milošević0%
Karim Coulibaly0%
Patrice Čović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1. FC Köln's squad is €14m more valuable than Werder Bremen's (€133m vs €119m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
1. FC Köln's attack is €22m more valuable than Werder Bremen's (€72m vs €50m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
1. FC Köln's midfield is €10m less valuable than Werder Bremen's (€19m vs €28m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
1. FC Köln's defence is €2m more valuable than Werder Bremen's (€43m vs €41m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart