The model sees a clear edge for Borussia Dortmund, with a 48% chance of victory against Hoffenheim, while the home side and a draw each sit at 26%. The expected goal total is 3.0, but the most likely total is 2, with a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12% probability. Hoffenheim, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, whereas Dortmund, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.78 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.6%) with a 3% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.3%) with a 7% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.0%) with an 8% edge, Under 6.5 (96.2%) with a 4% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.4%) with a 5% edge, Home under 3.5 goals (95.1%) with a 5% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals (93.0%) with a 5% edge, and Under 5.5 (90.7%) with a 5% edge. The recent form shows Hoffenheim struggling after two straight defeats, while Dortmund is on a three-game winning streak.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim win
24.6%
Avg Implied 33.1% · @ 2.85
Edge
-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.97
Dafabet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.92
Betano
2.92
Draw
25.7%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.77
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.96
Marathonbet
3.90
Betfair
3.90
Dafabet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.83
Borussia Dortmund win
49.7%
Avg Implied 41.9% · @ 2.25
Edge
+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.34
Marathonbet
2.31
Betfair
2.30
Dafabet
2.28
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.47
2.20
0.93
1.67
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.33
2.00
0.67
0.33
4.00
vs Similar (24)
2.12
1.25
2.25
1.00
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Dortmund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.13
2.41
0.94
1.62
1.38
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.50
1.50
0.75
1.25
2.25
vs Weaker (21)
2.33
0.90
2.75
0.83
1.78
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (1899 Hoffenheim) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.3%
@ 1.12-3.1%
Under 1.5
19.7%
@ 5.65+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.10
BetVictor
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.4%
@ 1.44-8.6%
Under 2.5
43.6%
@ 2.68+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.88
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Betano
2.70
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.0%
@ 2.14-10.4%
Under 3.5
66.0%
@ 1.71+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.21
SBO
2.21
Betano
2.18
Marathonbet
2.16
Under
1xBet
1.76
Unibet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
Both teams to score
Yes
58.6%
@ 1.40-8.2%
No
41.4%
@ 2.81+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.44
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
No
Betfair
3.00
BetVictor
2.88
Unibet
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Betano
2.77
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 7.62+5.9%
1-2
9.7%@ 8.65+4.2%
0-1
8.2%@ 11.91+4.2%
0-2
8.1%@ 13.66+4.7%
2-1
6.5%@ 9.78+1.7%
0-0
6.4%@ 17.97+3.7%
2-2
5.7%@ 9.99+1.0%
1-3
5.7%@ 13.88+2.3%
1899 Hoffenheim goals ↓
Borussia Dortmund goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
8.2%
8.1%
4.8%
2.1%
1
5.2%
12%
9.7%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.7%
6.5%
5.7%
3.4%
1.5%
3
1.5%
2.6%
2.3%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = 1899 Hoffenheim goals (down), columns = Borussia Dortmund goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
1899 Hoffenheim is 0.35 points worse than Borussia Dortmund in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 2.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
1899 Hoffenheim is 0.15 goals worse than Borussia Dortmund in terms of goals scored per game (1.91 vs 2.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
1899 Hoffenheim is 0.53 goals worse than Borussia Dortmund in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
1899 Hoffenheim is 2.0 percentage points better than Borussia Dortmund in terms of average possession (55% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim
For 7.1 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 8.5 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Borussia Dortmund
For 5.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1899 Hoffenheim
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.2
10.4
3.7
3.6
3.9
22.8
22.3
23.3
vs Stronger (12)
8.3
7.8
8.8
3.9
3.7
4.2
22.0
22.5
21.5
vs Similar (37)
10.9
11.0
10.8
3.8
3.6
3.9
22.8
22.3
23.3
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
-
13.0
1.0
-
1.0
33.0
-
33.0
% over line
66%
58%
73%
56%
54%
58%
64%
58%
69%
% under line
34%
42%
27%
44%
46%
42%
36%
42%
31%
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Dortmund
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.4
8.3
3.4
2.7
4.2
22.3
21.6
23.0
vs Stronger (3)
7.3
7.0
7.5
2.7
1.0
3.5
27.3
25.0
28.5
vs Similar (11)
8.5
8.4
8.5
4.2
3.4
4.8
22.7
23.4
22.2
vs Weaker (36)
9.1
9.8
8.3
3.3
2.6
4.1
21.7
20.9
22.7
% over line
36%
46%
25%
46%
35%
58%
60%
54%
67%
% under line
64%
54%
75%
54%
65%
42%
40%
46%
33%
This opponent (1899 Hoffenheim) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.7%
@ 1.75-2.4%
Under 9.5
49.3%
@ 1.99+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathonbet
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Under
Unibet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.99
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.6%
@ 1.78+4.3%
Under 3.5
43.4%
@ 1.96-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.05
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
46.4%
Under 21.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
1899 Hoffenheim or Draw
54.8%
Avg Implied 57.6% · @ 1.63
Edge
-2.7%
25%
26%
50%
covers 1899 Hoffenheim + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
1899 Hoffenheim or Borussia Dortmund
74.4%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.24
Edge
-1.3%
25%
26%
50%
covers 1899 Hoffenheim + Borussia Dortmund
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Draw or Borussia Dortmund
70.8%
Avg Implied 66.8% · @ 1.41
Edge
+4.0%
25%
26%
50%
covers Draw + Borussia Dortmund
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 0.5
Over
74.3%
@ 1.18-4.3%
Under
25.7%
@ 4.34+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.51
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
Unibet
4.25
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 1.5
Over
39.4%
@ 1.98-8.0%
Under
60.6%
@ 1.78+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Under
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Unibet
1.79
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 2.5
Over
15.7%
@ 4.08-7.2%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.21+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.32
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
@ 9.03-5.4%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.04+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.10
Marathonbet
9.10
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Borussia Dortmund over/under 0.5
Over
82.2%
@ 1.13+0.0%
Under
17.8%
@ 5.22-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Borussia Dortmund over/under 1.5
Over
51.5%
@ 1.74-2.4%
Under
48.5%
@ 2.04+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Under
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Betano
2.02
Borussia Dortmund over/under 2.5
Over
25.0%
@ 3.31-3.2%
Under
75.0%
@ 1.30+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.53
Marathonbet
3.36
1xBet
3.36
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Under
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Borussia Dortmund over/under 3.5
Over
9.7%
@ 6.87-3.8%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.07+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.50
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to 1899 Hoffenheim, so a minus line means 1899 Hoffenheim give that many goals of a start and Borussia Dortmund receive them. At -1, 1899 Hoffenheim must win by two or more to land; a one-goal 1899 Hoffenheim win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (1899 Hoffenheim)
1899 Hoffenheim -2
4.7%
@ 10.46-3.8%
Draw -2
8.6%
@ 7.37-3.4%
Borussia Dortmund +2
86.7%
@ 1.12+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.30
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (1899 Hoffenheim)
1899 Hoffenheim -1
13.3%
@ 5.24-3.9%
Draw -1
15.9%
@ 4.79-2.9%
Borussia Dortmund +1
70.8%
@ 1.41+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.05
Unibet
4.90
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.36
Handicap +1 (1899 Hoffenheim)
1899 Hoffenheim +1
54.8%
@ 1.63-0.3%
Draw +1
20.5%
@ 4.20-0.9%
Borussia Dortmund -1
24.7%
@ 3.83+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.61
Betfair
1.57
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.78
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Handicap +2 (1899 Hoffenheim)
1899 Hoffenheim +2
75.3%
@ 1.21+1.3%
Draw +2
14.0%
@ 6.26-0.3%
Borussia Dortmund -2
10.7%
@ 7.72-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Away
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
1899 Hoffenheim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.70
1.40
0.33
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
1.33
0.33
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (24)
1.17
0.50
1.42
0.33
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Dortmund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.24
0.35
0.46
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.88
0.75
0.25
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.33
1.42
0.42
0.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (1899 Hoffenheim) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.5%
@ 1.23-3.3%
Under 0.5
27.5%
@ 3.86+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
BetVictor
4.10
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.1%
@ 2.12-8.3%
Under 1.5
63.9%
@ 1.69+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
SBO
2.16
Under
William Hil
1.73
Bet365
1.73
SBO
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.2%
@ 4.57-6.3%
Under 2.5
85.8%
@ 1.18+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
4.80
Betano
4.60
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Under
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.2%
@ 1.85-7.0%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.87+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
10Bet
1.83
Under
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Unibet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.8%
@ 5.18-8.0%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.12+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
Betano
5.20
Unibet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
@ 11.25-6.6%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Borussia Dortmund over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.2%
@ 1.72-3.1%
Under
48.8%
@ 2.04+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Under
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.06
Unibet
2.04
1xBet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Borussia Dortmund over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.6%
@ 4.42-2.3%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.17+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Betano
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Borussia Dortmund over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.8%
@ 9.75-2.8%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
1899 Hoffenheim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.75
0.83
0.67
1.08
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Dortmund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.18
0.59
1.15
0.77
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.62
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
1.29
0.57
1.33
0.42
1.22
0.78
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (1899 Hoffenheim) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.4%
@ 1.12-1.8%
Under 0.5
18.6%
@ 5.58+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Under
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.4%
@ 1.65-7.5%
Under 1.5
50.6%
@ 2.18+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
William Hil
1.67
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Under
Unibet
2.23
Betano
2.20
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.0%
@ 2.98-10.3%
Under 2.5
79.0%
@ 1.36+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
1xBet
3.08
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.90
Under
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.7%
@ 1.58-10.4%
Under
51.3%
@ 2.27+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.25
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.6%
@ 3.75-10.0%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.23+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.82
1xBet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
@ 8.50-8.1%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.05+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Borussia Dortmund over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.3%
@ 1.48-2.8%
Under
39.7%
@ 2.52+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Borussia Dortmund over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.1%
@ 3.20-6.8%
Under
77.9%
@ 1.30+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.30
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Borussia Dortmund over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.3%
@ 7.95-5.3%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.05+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.80
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+8.1%
Under 6.5
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+4.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+5.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.3%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.2%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
Under 5.5
90.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.10
+5.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
90.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+3.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
+8.0%
Away +2 handicap
86.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+7.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+6.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.23
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-
+10.0%
Home under 2.5 goals
84.3%
1.21
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+7.2%
Under 25.5 fouls
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.2%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Unibet
1.13
+0.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.4%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
+2.3%
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.12
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-1.8%
Over 1.5
80.3%
1.12
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.11
Unibet
1.11
-3.1%
Under 4.5
80.1%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+6.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.36
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
+10.3%
Under 5.5 cards
78.6%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.30
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+6.8%
Over 2.5 cards
76.1%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
Home +2 handicap
75.3%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Betfair
1.17
+1.3%
Away under 2.5 goals
75.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+3.2%
Home or Away
74.4%
1.24
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-1.3%
Home over 0.5 goals
74.3%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
-4.3%
Under 11.5 corners
72.8%
1.35
Unibet
1.41
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.30
-
+5.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.5%
1.23
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
-3.3%
Draw or Away
70.8%
1.41
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
+4.0%
Away +1 handicap
70.8%
1.41
Marathonbet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.36
+6.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
1899 Hoffenheim · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fisnik Asllani29%
Andrej Kramarić28%
Tim Lemperle26%
Grischa Prömel24%
Bazoumana Touré16%
Ozan Kabak15%
Max Moerstedt13%
Wouter Burger12%
Valentin Gendrey12%
Alexander Prass6%
Robin Hranáč3%
Albian Hajdari3%
Vladimír Coufal3%
Oliver Baumann0%
Bernardo0%
Kevin Akpoguma0%
Ihlas Bebou0%
Adam Hložek0%
Umut Tohumcu0%
Arthur Chaves0%
Muhammed Damar0%
Cole Campbell0%
Leon Avdullahu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Albian Hajdari35%
Bernardo29%
Umut Tohumcu29%
Wouter Burger22%
Arthur Chaves20%
Robin Hranáč19%
Ozan Kabak19%
Grischa Prömel18%
Leon Avdullahu14%
Alexander Prass12%
Vladimír Coufal11%
Oliver Baumann11%
Max Moerstedt9%
Andrej Kramarić8%
Tim Lemperle6%
Bazoumana Touré6%
Ihlas Bebou6%
Fisnik Asllani6%
Kevin Akpoguma0%
Adam Hložek0%
Valentin Gendrey0%
Muhammed Damar0%
Cole Campbell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bazoumana Touré25%
Fisnik Asllani23%
Andrej Kramarić22%
Vladimír Coufal20%
Wouter Burger19%
Valentin Gendrey12%
Tim Lemperle6%
Albian Hajdari6%
Muhammed Damar6%
Alexander Prass6%
Grischa Prömel6%
Leon Avdullahu3%
Oliver Baumann0%
Bernardo0%
Kevin Akpoguma0%
Ihlas Bebou0%
Ozan Kabak0%
Adam Hložek0%
Robin Hranáč0%
Umut Tohumcu0%
Arthur Chaves0%
Cole Campbell0%
Max Moerstedt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fisnik Asllani26%
Ozan Kabak15%
Andrej Kramarić14%
Grischa Prömel12%
Tim Lemperle10%
Wouter Burger9%
Bazoumana Touré9%
Alexander Prass6%
Max Moerstedt4%
Oliver Baumann0%
Vladimír Coufal0%
Bernardo0%
Kevin Akpoguma0%
Ihlas Bebou0%
Adam Hložek0%
Valentin Gendrey0%
Robin Hranáč0%
Albian Hajdari0%
Umut Tohumcu0%
Arthur Chaves0%
Muhammed Damar0%
Cole Campbell0%
Leon Avdullahu0%
Borussia Dortmund · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Serhou Guirassy39%
Karim Adeyemi26%
Julian Brandt24%
Maximilian Beier23%
Emre Can19%
Ramy Bensebaini19%
Samuele Inacio14%
Nico Schlotterbeck14%
Yan Couto11%
Luca Reggiani11%
Aarón Anselmino10%
Felix Nmecha10%
Daniel Svensson9%
Carney Chukwuemeka8%
Fábio Silva8%
Waldemar Anton7%
Marcel Sabitzer3%
Niklas Süle0%
Pascal Groß0%
Salih Özcan0%
Julian Ryerson0%
Gregor Kobel0%
Jobe Bellingham0%
Filippo Mané0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Reggiani33%
Emre Can31%
Niklas Süle31%
Samuele Inacio29%
Ramy Bensebaini28%
Julian Ryerson24%
Nico Schlotterbeck22%
Karim Adeyemi18%
Yan Couto15%
Waldemar Anton14%
Fábio Silva13%
Aarón Anselmino10%
Maximilian Beier9%
Marcel Sabitzer9%
Jobe Bellingham7%
Serhou Guirassy7%
Gregor Kobel6%
Carney Chukwuemeka5%
Daniel Svensson4%
Felix Nmecha0%
Julian Brandt0%
Pascal Groß0%
Salih Özcan0%
Filippo Mané0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Julian Ryerson36%
Fábio Silva18%
Karim Adeyemi15%
Maximilian Beier14%
Pascal Groß12%
Marcel Sabitzer12%
Aarón Anselmino10%
Ramy Bensebaini9%
Serhou Guirassy9%
Niklas Süle8%
Yan Couto7%
Julian Brandt7%
Felix Nmecha7%
Carney Chukwuemeka5%
Daniel Svensson4%
Jobe Bellingham4%
Nico Schlotterbeck3%
Emre Can0%
Salih Özcan0%
Gregor Kobel0%
Waldemar Anton0%
Filippo Mané0%
Samuele Inacio0%
Luca Reggiani0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Serhou Guirassy24%
Karim Adeyemi15%
Maximilian Beier14%
Julian Brandt7%
Felix Nmecha7%
Fábio Silva5%
Marcel Sabitzer3%
Nico Schlotterbeck3%
Carney Chukwuemeka3%
Niklas Süle0%
Emre Can0%
Ramy Bensebaini0%
Pascal Groß0%
Salih Özcan0%
Julian Ryerson0%
Gregor Kobel0%
Waldemar Anton0%
Yan Couto0%
Daniel Svensson0%
Jobe Bellingham0%
Filippo Mané0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Samuele Inacio0%
Luca Reggiani0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1899 Hoffenheim's squad is €221m less valuable than Borussia Dortmund's (€309m vs €529m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
1899 Hoffenheim's attack is €58m less valuable than Borussia Dortmund's (€111m vs €170m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
1899 Hoffenheim's midfield is €41m less valuable than Borussia Dortmund's (€105m vs €146m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
1899 Hoffenheim's defence is €121m less valuable than Borussia Dortmund's (€92m vs €214m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart