The model projects a high-scoring encounter with an average of 3.5 goals, and the most likely total is three, a 21% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.9% probability. The favourite result is a home win, with the home side’s win probability at 45%, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 32%. 1899 Hoffenheim, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 2.25 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. VfB Stuttgart, on the road versus a similar team, averages 2.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Recent form shows Hoffenheim struggling after two straight defeats, while Stuttgart is coming off a heavy loss to Bayern. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8% (edge 6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.5% (edge 5%), Under 7.5 at 94.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.2% (edge 6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.6% (edge 5%), Under 6.5 at 88.4%, Over 1.5 at 87.8% (edge 4%), and Home over 0.5 goals at 87.7% (edge 6%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim win
43.3%
Avg Implied 40.1% · @ 2.34
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
Dafabet
2.40
10Bet
2.36
Draw
23.7%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.82
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.03
Pinnacle
3.98
Marathonbet
3.96
Betfair
3.90
Dafabet
3.85
VfB Stuttgart win
33.0%
Avg Implied 35.3% · @ 2.66
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.84
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.74
Pinnacle
2.69
Betano
2.67
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.47
2.20
0.93
1.67
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.33
2.00
0.67
0.33
4.00
vs Similar (24)
2.12
1.25
2.25
1.00
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VfB Stuttgart
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.60
1.81
1.19
2.43
2.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
3.33
0.33
3.00
1.00
3.67
vs Similar (20)
2.35
1.00
2.08
0.75
2.75
1.38
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (1899 Hoffenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.9%
@ 1.11+4.0%
Under 1.5
12.1%
@ 5.82-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Under
Unibet
6.25
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
Betano
5.70
1xBet
5.70
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.0%
@ 1.41+2.5%
Under 2.5
31.0%
@ 2.79-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.85
Betano
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.6%
@ 2.08+1.6%
Under 3.5
52.4%
@ 1.77-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.11
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Under
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.73
Both teams to score
Yes
69.7%
@ 1.38+2.1%
No
30.3%
@ 2.87-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
No
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.94
10Bet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.89
Betano
2.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%@ 7.55+3.7%
2-1
8.6%@ 9.05+3.4%
1-2
7.4%@ 9.66+2.6%
2-2
7.1%@ 9.71+2.3%
3-1
5.4%@ 14.26+2.2%
2-0
5.2%@ 14.86+2.1%
1-0
4.5%@ 12.50+0.8%
3-2
4.5%@ 16.58+1.7%
1899 Hoffenheim goals ↓
VfB Stuttgart goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
3.8%
3.9%
2.1%
0.9%
1
4.5%
9.9%
7.4%
4.1%
1.7%
2
5.2%
8.6%
7.1%
3.9%
1.6%
3
3.3%
5.4%
4.5%
2.5%
1.0%
4
1.6%
2.6%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = 1899 Hoffenheim goals (down), columns = VfB Stuttgart goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
1899 Hoffenheim is 0.03 points worse than VfB Stuttgart in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
1899 Hoffenheim is 0.18 goals worse than VfB Stuttgart in terms of goals scored per game (1.91 vs 2.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
1899 Hoffenheim is 0.09 goals worse than VfB Stuttgart in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
1899 Hoffenheim is 2.4 percentage points worse than VfB Stuttgart in terms of average possession (55% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim
For 7.1 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 8.5 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VfB Stuttgart
For 6.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
1899 Hoffenheim
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.2
10.6
3.6
3.4
3.7
22.9
22.3
23.4
vs Stronger (12)
8.5
7.8
9.4
3.2
3.1
3.4
22.1
22.5
21.6
vs Similar (37)
10.9
11.0
10.8
3.8
3.6
3.9
22.8
22.3
23.3
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
-
13.0
1.0
-
1.0
33.0
-
33.0
% over line
67%
58%
76%
54%
52%
56%
65%
58%
72%
% under line
33%
42%
24%
46%
48%
44%
35%
42%
28%
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VfB Stuttgart
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
10.0
3.7
3.5
3.9
22.6
23.3
21.9
vs Stronger (7)
9.3
6.0
11.8
4.9
6.3
3.8
20.9
22.0
20.0
vs Similar (33)
10.6
11.5
9.7
3.6
3.2
3.9
23.2
23.6
22.8
vs Weaker (10)
8.4
7.2
9.4
3.4
2.8
4.0
21.9
23.5
20.6
% over line
56%
57%
56%
46%
48%
44%
56%
61%
52%
% under line
44%
43%
44%
54%
52%
56%
44%
39%
48%
This opponent (1899 Hoffenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.8%
@ 1.67+2.7%
Under 9.5
42.2%
@ 2.05-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.4%
Under 3.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
44.2%
Under 21.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
1899 Hoffenheim or Draw
63.7%
Avg Implied 64.5% · @ 1.46
Edge
-0.9%
43%
24%
33%
covers 1899 Hoffenheim + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
1899 Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart
78.1%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.25
Edge
+2.3%
43%
24%
33%
covers 1899 Hoffenheim + VfB Stuttgart
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Draw or VfB Stuttgart
58.3%
Avg Implied 59.7% · @ 1.58
Edge
-1.5%
43%
24%
33%
covers Draw + VfB Stuttgart
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.64
Unibet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 0.5
Over
87.7%
@ 1.13+5.9%
Under
12.3%
@ 5.10-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.10
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
4.75
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 1.5
Over
62.0%
@ 1.75+8.6%
Under
38.0%
@ 2.01-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Under
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.06
Pinnacle
2.06
Unibet
2.04
Betfair
2.00
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 2.5
Over
35.0%
@ 3.33+6.9%
Under
65.0%
@ 1.30-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.32
Betano
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Under
Marathonbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 3.5
Over
16.1%
@ 7.18+3.1%
Under
83.9%
@ 1.07-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
7.20
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
VfB Stuttgart over/under 0.5
Over
85.9%
@ 1.17+6.1%
Under
14.1%
@ 4.58-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.40
1xBet
4.20
VfB Stuttgart over/under 1.5
Over
58.2%
@ 1.87+8.3%
Under
41.8%
@ 1.86-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Under
Marathonbet
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
10Bet
1.85
VfB Stuttgart over/under 2.5
Over
31.1%
@ 3.76+6.3%
Under
68.9%
@ 1.24-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.90
1xBet
3.84
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.76
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
1xBet
1.24
VfB Stuttgart over/under 3.5
Over
13.5%
@ 8.60+2.7%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.04-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.60
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to 1899 Hoffenheim, so a minus line means 1899 Hoffenheim give that many goals of a start and VfB Stuttgart receive them. At -1, 1899 Hoffenheim must win by two or more to land; a one-goal 1899 Hoffenheim win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (1899 Hoffenheim)
1899 Hoffenheim -2
11.5%
@ 8.48+0.9%
Draw -2
12.6%
@ 6.56-1.1%
VfB Stuttgart +2
75.9%
@ 1.19+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
10Bet
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.80
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.00
Away
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (1899 Hoffenheim)
1899 Hoffenheim -1
24.1%
@ 4.10+2.0%
Draw -1
17.7%
@ 4.37-3.0%
VfB Stuttgart +1
58.3%
@ 1.58+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
Unibet
3.70
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.45
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Unibet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Handicap +1 (1899 Hoffenheim)
1899 Hoffenheim +1
63.7%
@ 1.45+1.6%
Draw +1
16.4%
@ 4.64-3.0%
VfB Stuttgart -1
19.9%
@ 4.90+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Away
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Handicap +2 (1899 Hoffenheim)
1899 Hoffenheim +2
80.1%
@ 1.14+2.3%
Draw +2
11.0%
@ 6.87-2.0%
VfB Stuttgart -2
8.9%
@ 9.57-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
9.50
Marathonbet
5.85
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
1899 Hoffenheim
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.70
1.40
0.33
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
1.33
0.33
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (24)
1.17
0.50
1.42
0.33
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VfB Stuttgart
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.70
0.94
0.50
1.29
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (20)
1.25
0.50
1.08
0.42
1.50
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (1899 Hoffenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.6%
@ 1.22+0.1%
Under 0.5
23.4%
@ 3.97-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.5%
@ 2.09-2.5%
Under 1.5
57.5%
@ 1.71+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.20
Betano
2.18
William Hil
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Under
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.70
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.2%
@ 4.43-5.8%
Under 2.5
84.8%
@ 1.18+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.45
William Hil
4.40
Under
Marathonbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.1%
@ 1.70+0.3%
Under
44.9%
@ 2.06-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Unibet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Unibet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.2%
@ 4.56-3.1%
Under
82.8%
@ 1.16+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.55
Betano
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.5%
@ 10.25-4.7%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
VfB Stuttgart over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.3%
@ 1.77-2.2%
Under
49.7%
@ 1.96+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
1xBet
2.10
Pinnacle
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Betano
1.93
VfB Stuttgart over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.6%
@ 4.99-3.0%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.14+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.11
VfB Stuttgart over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.2%
@ 10.50-5.7%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
1899 Hoffenheim
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.75
0.83
0.67
1.08
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VfB Stuttgart
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.90
0.88
0.69
1.14
1.14
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.25
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (1899 Hoffenheim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.2%
@ 1.12+0.4%
Under 0.5
15.8%
@ 5.74-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Under
1xBet
6.40
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
Unibet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.4%
@ 1.62-5.6%
Under 1.5
47.6%
@ 2.23+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Unibet
2.23
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.8%
@ 2.92-7.3%
Under 2.5
75.2%
@ 1.38+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
1xBet
2.98
Unibet
2.85
Under
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.3%
@ 1.48-4.6%
Under
41.7%
@ 2.51+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.49
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.47
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.7%
@ 3.26-7.7%
Under
79.3%
@ 1.29+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Betano
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
1899 Hoffenheim over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.4%
@ 8.20-4.9%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.04+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
VfB Stuttgart over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.9%
@ 1.53+1.2%
Under
38.1%
@ 2.37-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.34
VfB Stuttgart over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.4%
@ 3.46-4.3%
Under
77.6%
@ 1.26+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
VfB Stuttgart over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.8%
@ 7.80-6.2%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.06+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
Under 7.5
94.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-0.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
1.06
Betano
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.6%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.9%
Under 6.5
88.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.02
-
-3.0%
Over 1.5
87.9%
1.11
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
+4.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
87.7%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
+5.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
86.5%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-2.7%
Away over 0.5 goals
85.9%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+6.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.18
Marathonbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+5.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.4%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.11
+3.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.12
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
+0.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
83.9%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
-3.1%
Under 25.5 fouls
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.8%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
+3.1%
Home +2 handicap
80.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
+2.3%
Under 5.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.3%
1.29
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+7.7%
Home or Away
78.1%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+2.3%
Under 5.5
77.7%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
-6.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.6%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-
+4.3%
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.6%
1.22
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+0.1%
Away +2 handicap
75.9%
1.19
Unibet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+0.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.2%
1.38
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
+7.3%
Over 2.5 cards
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
1899 Hoffenheim · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fisnik Asllani29%
Andrej Kramarić28%
Tim Lemperle26%
Grischa Prömel24%
Bazoumana Touré16%
Ozan Kabak15%
Max Moerstedt13%
Wouter Burger12%
Valentin Gendrey12%
Alexander Prass6%
Robin Hranáč3%
Albian Hajdari3%
Vladimír Coufal3%
Oliver Baumann0%
Bernardo0%
Kevin Akpoguma0%
Ihlas Bebou0%
Adam Hložek0%
Umut Tohumcu0%
Arthur Chaves0%
Muhammed Damar0%
Cole Campbell0%
Leon Avdullahu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Albian Hajdari35%
Bernardo29%
Umut Tohumcu29%
Wouter Burger22%
Arthur Chaves20%
Robin Hranáč19%
Ozan Kabak19%
Grischa Prömel18%
Leon Avdullahu14%
Alexander Prass12%
Vladimír Coufal11%
Oliver Baumann11%
Max Moerstedt9%
Andrej Kramarić8%
Tim Lemperle6%
Bazoumana Touré6%
Ihlas Bebou6%
Fisnik Asllani6%
Kevin Akpoguma0%
Adam Hložek0%
Valentin Gendrey0%
Muhammed Damar0%
Cole Campbell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bazoumana Touré25%
Fisnik Asllani23%
Andrej Kramarić22%
Vladimír Coufal20%
Wouter Burger19%
Valentin Gendrey12%
Tim Lemperle6%
Albian Hajdari6%
Muhammed Damar6%
Alexander Prass6%
Grischa Prömel6%
Leon Avdullahu3%
Oliver Baumann0%
Bernardo0%
Kevin Akpoguma0%
Ihlas Bebou0%
Ozan Kabak0%
Adam Hložek0%
Robin Hranáč0%
Umut Tohumcu0%
Arthur Chaves0%
Cole Campbell0%
Max Moerstedt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fisnik Asllani26%
Ozan Kabak15%
Andrej Kramarić14%
Grischa Prömel12%
Tim Lemperle10%
Wouter Burger9%
Bazoumana Touré9%
Alexander Prass6%
Max Moerstedt4%
Oliver Baumann0%
Vladimír Coufal0%
Bernardo0%
Kevin Akpoguma0%
Ihlas Bebou0%
Adam Hložek0%
Valentin Gendrey0%
Robin Hranáč0%
Albian Hajdari0%
Umut Tohumcu0%
Arthur Chaves0%
Muhammed Damar0%
Cole Campbell0%
Leon Avdullahu0%
VfB Stuttgart · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Deniz Undav47%
Ermedin Demirović35%
Tiago Tomás21%
Bilal El Khannouss20%
Chris Führich16%
Maximilian Mittelstädt14%
Jamie Leweling14%
Nikolas Nartey11%
Chema Andrés11%
Badredine Bouanani7%
Josha Vagnoman5%
Atakan Karazor5%
Luca Jaquez4%
Angelo Stiller4%
Lorenz Assignon3%
Dan Zagadou0%
Alexander Nübel0%
Fabian Bredlow0%
Jeff Chabot0%
Ramon Hendriks0%
Ameen Al-Dakhil0%
Jeremy Arevalo0%
Finn Jeltsch0%
Lazar Jovanović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bilal El Khannouss27%
Jeff Chabot22%
Lorenz Assignon19%
Ermedin Demirović19%
Deniz Undav18%
Lazar Jovanović17%
Atakan Karazor16%
Chema Andrés16%
Finn Jeltsch14%
Tiago Tomás13%
Ameen Al-Dakhil12%
Maximilian Mittelstädt12%
Jamie Leweling12%
Nikolas Nartey11%
Ramon Hendriks10%
Luca Jaquez8%
Chris Führich8%
Josha Vagnoman8%
Badredine Bouanani7%
Angelo Stiller6%
Dan Zagadou0%
Alexander Nübel0%
Fabian Bredlow0%
Jeremy Arevalo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Deniz Undav27%
Jamie Leweling22%
Bilal El Khannouss17%
Chris Führich16%
Angelo Stiller16%
Maximilian Mittelstädt12%
Nikolas Nartey11%
Ermedin Demirović11%
Lorenz Assignon8%
Tiago Tomás8%
Ramon Hendriks6%
Josha Vagnoman5%
Alexander Nübel4%
Luca Jaquez4%
Badredine Bouanani4%
Finn Jeltsch3%
Atakan Karazor2%
Dan Zagadou0%
Fabian Bredlow0%
Jeff Chabot0%
Ameen Al-Dakhil0%
Jeremy Arevalo0%
Chema Andrés0%
Lazar Jovanović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Deniz Undav56%
Dan Zagadou20%
Ermedin Demirović16%
Chris Führich14%
Jamie Leweling12%
Bilal El Khannouss12%
Tiago Tomás10%
Badredine Bouanani7%
Chema Andrés5%
Maximilian Mittelstädt4%
Nikolas Nartey3%
Josha Vagnoman3%
Jeff Chabot2%
Alexander Nübel0%
Atakan Karazor0%
Fabian Bredlow0%
Ramon Hendriks0%
Angelo Stiller0%
Lorenz Assignon0%
Ameen Al-Dakhil0%
Luca Jaquez0%
Jeremy Arevalo0%
Finn Jeltsch0%
Lazar Jovanović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1899 Hoffenheim's squad is €122m less valuable than VfB Stuttgart's (€309m vs €430m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
1899 Hoffenheim's attack is €82m less valuable than VfB Stuttgart's (€111m vs €193m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
1899 Hoffenheim's midfield is €13m more valuable than VfB Stuttgart's (€105m vs €92m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
1899 Hoffenheim's defence is €52m less valuable than VfB Stuttgart's (€92m vs €145m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04