PythiaFootballBETA
This Bundesliga matchup between 1899 Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen on May 9th, 2026, is shaping up to be an open and attacking affair, with Hoffenheim averaging 2.4 goals at home against stronger opponents and Werder Bremen averaging 1.0 goal away against weaker opponents. The expected total goals stands at 3.2, indicating a high-scoring encounter.
Hoffenheim's recent form has been inconsistent, coming off a defeat, but they're still the favourite to win at home with a 46% probability. The model's selection is a home win, with Werder Bremen having a 29% chance of taking the three points. The draw percentage is 25%. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 11.1% probability.
In terms of scoring and conceding, Hoffenheim has averaged 2.4 goals and 1.5 conceded at home, while Werder Bremen averages 1.0 goal and 1.75 conceded away against weaker opponents. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals with a high 84.4% probability. The suggested picks also include Over 1.5, with a 84.4% probability. The home side's home win percentage is 46%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 29%.
The win extends their run of mixed results, but the final scoreline was a far cry from what the model expected. In a low-scoring match, 1899 Hoffenheim emerged victorious with a 1-0 win, well clear of the predicted 3.2 total goals and the most likely score of 1-1. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 46%. The model's call was correct, as the home team's recent form, coming off a defeat, seemed to have little bearing on the outcome. The model's selection of an over 1.5 goals match was a miss, with a probability of 84.4%, while the actual result was a miss for the suggested pick of the same, and the other suggested pick, the most likely total goals, was also a miss at 22%.
1899 Hoffenheim| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.03 | 1.47 | 2.20 | 1.20 | 1.87 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.14 | 2.57 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 2.29 | 1.14 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 2.27 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
Werder Bremen| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.67 | 1.07 | 1.73 | 1.13 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.20 | 2.40 | 0.25 | 3.00 | 0.17 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.55 | 1.30 | 1.36 | 1.27 | 1.78 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
| Werder Bremen goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 6.2% | 11% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
1899 HoffenheimWerder Bremen1899 Hoffenheim| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 22.8 | 22.6 | 23.0 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 8.5 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 21.2 | 21.0 | 21.5 |
| vs Similar (33) | 11.2 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 22.8 | 22.9 | 22.8 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 8.5 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 27.2 | 26.0 | 28.5 |
| % over line | 66% | 60% | 72% | 54% | 48% | 60% | 62% | 60% | 64% |
| % under line | 34% | 40% | 28% | 46% | 52% | 40% | 38% | 40% | 36% |
Werder Bremen| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 21.0 | 21.5 | 20.5 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 9.8 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 19.6 | 20.0 | 19.4 |
| vs Similar (33) | 9.1 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 21.8 | 21.9 | 21.5 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 56% | 50% | 62% | 68% | 65% | 71% | 48% | 54% | 42% |
| % under line | 44% | 50% | 38% | 32% | 35% | 29% | 52% | 46% | 58% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/01/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 16/02/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 29/09/24 | H | 3-4 | |
| 03/03/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 07/10/23 | A | 2-3 | |
| 02/04/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 07/10/22 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/02/21 | H | 4-0 |
1899 Hoffenheim| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 2-2 |
Werder Bremen| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/02/26 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | 89 | 82% | 2.6 | 122 | 36 | +86 | 4.6 | 97% | 94% | 76% | 9.9 | 53% | 3.7 | 45% | 17.8 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 67% |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 73 | 65% | 2.1 | 70 | 34 | +36 | 3.1 | 85% | 56% | 32% | 9.5 | 44% | 3.8 | 58% | 21.9 | 59% | 500 | 170 | 122 | 208 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 53% |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 34 | 65 | 59% | 1.9 | 66 | 47 | +19 | 3.3 | 85% | 71% | 47% | 9.6 | 53% | 3.3 | 44% | 19.6 | 29% | 619 | 346 | 104 | 168 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 62 | 53% | 1.8 | 71 | 49 | +22 | 3.5 | 85% | 74% | 53% | 9.9 | 56% | 3.7 | 45% | 21.9 | 53% | 448 | 210 | 88 | 150 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 58% |
| 5 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 61 | 53% | 1.8 | 65 | 52 | +13 | 3.4 | 85% | 71% | 50% | 10.6 | 65% | 4.1 | 64% | 22.9 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 59 | 50% | 1.7 | 68 | 47 | +21 | 3.4 | 85% | 59% | 41% | 9.7 | 59% | 4.9 | 59% | 19.8 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 59% |
| 7 |  SC Freiburg | 34 | 47 | 38% | 1.4 | 51 | 57 | -6 | 3.2 | 82% | 65% | 38% | 8.3 | 35% | 3.8 | 50% | 21.5 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 48% |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 44 | 32% | 1.3 | 61 | 65 | -4 | 3.7 | 88% | 68% | 53% | 9.2 | 50% | 4.3 | 56% | 20.1 | 38% | 357 | 183 | 50 | 124 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 55% |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 34 | 43 | 35% | 1.3 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 3.1 | 85% | 62% | 41% | 10.2 | 56% | 4.5 | 70% | 22.6 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 44% |
| 10 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 40 | 29% | 1.2 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 2.9 | 82% | 53% | 32% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.2 | 62% | 21.0 | 44% | 154 | 50 | 62 | 42 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 44% |
| 11 |  Union Berlin | 34 | 39 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 58 | -14 | 3.0 | 76% | 62% | 47% | 9.8 | 53% | 4.3 | 58% | 22.3 | 47% | 130 | 37 | 25 | 68 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 40% |
| 12 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | 38 | 26% | 1.1 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 2.8 | 71% | 53% | 38% | 8.6 | 38% | 4.2 | 50% | 21.8 | 50% | 162 | 64 | 51 | 47 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 13 |  Hamburger SV | 34 | 38 | 26% | 1.1 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 2.8 | 79% | 56% | 32% | 9.5 | 47% | 5.2 | 73% | 24.5 | 74% | 177 | 58 | 21 | 98 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 34 | 32 | 21% | 0.9 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 3.3 | 85% | 65% | 47% | 10.1 | 50% | 4.6 | 66% | 18.7 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 47% |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 32 | 24% | 0.9 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 2.9 | 79% | 53% | 35% | 9.5 | 56% | 4.2 | 61% | 19.5 | 32% | 168 | 47 | 30 | 91 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 51% |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 36 | 30 | 19% | 0.8 | 46 | 71 | -25 | 3.2 | 78% | 64% | 42% | 11.9 | 72% | 3.9 | 50% | 20.6 | 44% | 201 | 78 | 25 | 98 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 45% |
| 17 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | 26 | 18% | 0.8 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 3.3 | 91% | 68% | 41% | 9.6 | 41% | 3.7 | 50% | 20.1 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 42% |
| 18 |  FC St. Pauli | 34 | 26 | 18% | 0.8 | 29 | 60 | -31 | 2.6 | 82% | 56% | 21% | 9.9 | 56% | 3.4 | 44% | 19.0 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 44% |
| 19 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 13.0 | 50% | 8.0 | 100% | 24.5 | 50% | 53 | 10 | 21 | 22 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 52% |