Aalborg faces a tough test at home against FC Fredericia, with the away side's recent form and strength suggesting a likely draw. However, the model predicts an away win, which aligns with the higher probability of an away victory. The expected total goals stand at 3.0, indicating a potentially high-scoring match.
Aalborg's home form shows they score an average of 1.67 goals and concede 1.17, while FC Fredericia's away form indicates they score 1.3 goals on average and concede 2.2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.8%. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals as its selection, with an 81.7% probability and a 2% edge.
The match is expected to be closely contested, with the home win percentage at 26%, the draw percentage at 25%, and the away win percentage at 49%. The model's selection, Over 1.5 goals, is the most likely outcome, closely followed by the 1-1 scoreline.
Results analysis
Aalborg's win extends their run of mixed results, but it was FC Fredericia who suffered the more significant loss, conceding three goals. The final score was 0-3 in favour of the home team, resulting in an away win for the model's selection. The model correctly predicted the outcome, backing an away win with a 49% probability. The model's selection proved correct, and it was the favourite going into the match. The model's suggestion of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 81.7% probability, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a 23% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aalborg winâś— Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied 34.4% · @ 2.67
Edge
-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.00
Unibet
2.85
SBO
2.82
Betano
2.70
Pinnacle
2.69
Drawâś— Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.51
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.74
Unibet
3.70
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.55
FC Fredericia winâś“ Hit
48.8%
Avg Implied 39.4% · @ 2.33
Edge
+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
Dafabet
2.42
Betano
2.42
BetVictor
2.40
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Aalborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.40
1.69
1.38
1.86
1.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.64
1.32
1.69
1.23
1.58
1.42
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.50
2.50
1.50
3.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Fredericia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.93
1.36
2.00
1.75
1.88
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
2.71
1.00
3.00
1.75
2.50
vs Similar (19)
1.37
1.95
1.33
2.00
1.40
1.90
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
0.50
2.00
0.50
3.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
@ 1.16+1.8%
Under 1.5
18.3%
@ 4.64-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
5.01
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
888Sport
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.5%
@ 1.58-0.7%
Under 2.5
41.5%
@ 2.29+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.37
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
Betano
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.1%
@ 2.41-2.4%
Under 3.5
63.9%
@ 1.51+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.48
BetVictor
2.45
Betano
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.5%
@ 1.48-1.9%
No
39.5%
@ 2.46+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.50
888Sport
1.50
No
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
1xBet
2.47
BetVictor
2.45
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 6.52+5.1%
1-2
9.6%@ 8.33+4.3%
0-2
7.6%@ 12.46+4.1%
0-1
7.5%@ 9.84+3.0%
2-1
6.7%@ 9.19+1.9%
2-2
6.0%@ 10.18+1.7%
0-0
5.9%@ 12.87+2.5%
1-3
5.7%@ 14.94+2.7%
Aalborg goals ↓
FC Fredericia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
7.5%
7.6%
4.5%
2.0%
1
4.9%
12%
9.6%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.8%
6.7%
6.0%
3.6%
1.6%
3
1.6%
2.8%
2.5%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aalborg goals (down), columns = FC Fredericia goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Aalborg is 0.17 points worse than FC Fredericia in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Aalborg is 0.67 goals worse than FC Fredericia in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Aalborg is 0.50 goals worse than FC Fredericia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aalborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.69
0.38
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.52
0.85
0.38
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Fredericia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
0.71
1.00
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.14
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.95
0.89
1.00
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aalborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.87
1.00
1.00
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.80
0.85
0.85
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
0.75
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Fredericia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.00
0.64
1.00
0.88
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.57
0.33
1.67
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.53
1.00
0.44
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.7%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+1.8%
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
73.0%
1.34
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.34
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
-
+4.7%
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Aalborg's squad is €2m more valuable than FC Fredericia's (€10m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Aalborg and FC Fredericia have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Aalborg and FC Fredericia have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Aalborg's defence is €2m more valuable than FC Fredericia's (€6m vs €3m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vejle
Hvidovre
Hobro
Aarhus Fremad
Vendsyssel FF
AB Copenhagen
Kolding IF
Hillerød
Esbjerg
HB Koge