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Aalborg vs Hillerød Result & Analysis

Date: 27/02/2026
Time: 18:00
Final 3-3
Aalborg
Aalborg
Vs
45%
26%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aalborg win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hillerød win✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AalborgAalborg

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L30W12L21W22D32W21W22D03L00DH·FC 17/09H·B 921/09A·LYN27/09H·HB 02/10A·B 917/10H·LYN25/10A·MID01/11A·HVI09/11H·KOL22/11A·AC 30/11
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.731.771.621.411.82
vs Stronger (1)0.003.000.003.00--
vs Similar (26)1.541.811.731.641.401.93
vs Weaker (3)2.330.674.000.001.501.00
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L12L21W21W11D21W11D11D13L10WA·HVI20/09H·AAR24/09H·AC 27/09A·MID04/10H·HVI18/10A·HOB25/10H·KOL01/11A·HB 07/11A·AC 23/11H·LYN28/11
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.232.271.071.601.40
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (25)1.801.282.331.001.311.54
vs Weaker (4)3.000.752.501.003.500.50
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.3%
Under 2.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.9%
Under 3.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.2%
No
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.3%
1-0
7.1%
2-0
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.3%
Aalborg goals ↓
Hillerød goals →
01234
05.9%5.3%4.3%1.9%0.6%
17.1%12%7.3%3.2%1.1%
27.0%9.3%6.2%2.7%0.9%
34.0%5.3%3.5%1.6%0.5%
41.7%2.2%1.5%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aalborg goals (down), columns = Hillerød goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lyngby
1.88
AC Horsens
1.69
Esbjerg
1.62
Hillerød
1.56
Aalborg
1.44
Hvidovre
1.44
Aarhus Fremad
1.38
Hobro
1.31
HB Koge
1.25
Kolding IF
1.19
B 93
1.16
Middelfart
0.47
Aalborg is 0.12 points worse than Hillerød in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.56).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lyngby
2.16
Aarhus Fremad
1.62
Aalborg
1.56
Esbjerg
1.41
B 93
1.38
Hvidovre
1.34
Hillerød
1.31
AC Horsens
1.31
HB Koge
1.31
Hobro
1.25
Kolding IF
1.16
Middelfart
1.00
Aalborg is 0.25 goals better than Hillerød in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
AC Horsens
0.84
Lyngby
1.12
Aarhus Fremad
1.16
Hvidovre
1.22
Kolding IF
1.25
Hobro
1.34
Hillerød
1.34
Esbjerg
1.34
Aalborg
1.47
HB Koge
1.50
B 93
1.81
Middelfart
2.41
Aalborg is 0.12 goals worse than Hillerød in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.34).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AalborgAalborg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W02L00D01L20W10W02L01L00DH·FC 17/09H·B 921/09A·LYN27/09H·HB 02/10A·B 917/10H·LYN25/10A·MID01/11A·HVI09/11H·KOL22/11A·AC 30/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.800.620.540.471.00
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (26)0.580.920.730.640.471.13
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L10W11D11D21W10W00D01L10WA·HVI20/09H·AAR24/09H·AC 27/09A·MID04/10H·HVI18/10A·HOB25/10H·KOL01/11A·HB 07/11A·AC 23/11H·LYN28/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.701.130.670.600.73
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (25)0.920.681.330.580.540.77
vs Weaker (4)0.750.750.501.001.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AalborgAalborg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W10W21W21W12L11D20W02L00DH·FC 17/09H·B 921/09A·LYN27/09H·HB 02/10A·B 917/10H·LYN25/10A·MID01/11A·HVI09/11H·KOL22/11A·AC 30/11
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.931.151.080.940.82
vs Stronger (1)0.003.000.003.00--
vs Similar (26)0.960.881.001.000.930.80
vs Weaker (3)2.000.674.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HillerødHillerød

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D11D10W00D00D01L11D12L00DA·HVI20/09H·AAR24/09H·AC 27/09A·MID04/10H·HVI18/10A·HOB25/10H·KOL01/11A·HB 07/11A·AC 23/11H·LYN28/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.531.130.401.000.67
vs Stronger (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (25)0.880.601.000.420.770.77
vs Weaker (4)2.250.002.000.002.500.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.6%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Aalborg · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Malthe Højholt33%
Mathias Jørgensen25%
John Iredale21%
Nicklas Helenius19%
Aaron Seydel17%
Kasper Jørgensen13%
Melker Widell11%
Mads Bomholt10%
Oliver Ross7%
Bjarne Pudel5%
Andres Jasson3%
Jubril Adedeji0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Lars Kramer0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent Müller0%
Kelvin John0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Mylian Jimenez0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oumar Diakhité31%
Bjarne Pudel29%
Mylian Jimenez26%
Kasper Davidsen22%
Melker Widell19%
Lars Kramer17%
Marc Nielsen17%
Andres Jasson16%
Kasper Jørgensen13%
Jubril Adedeji12%
Andreas Bruus10%
Oliver Ross10%
Travis Hernes8%
Isak Hansen Aarøen7%
Mads Bomholt7%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson6%
Kelvin John4%
Vincent Müller3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Nicklas Helenius0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Diego Caballo0%
Mathias Jørgensen0%
John Iredale0%
Elison Makolli0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicklas Helenius19%
Mathias Jørgensen16%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson12%
Melker Widell11%
Sebastian Otoa10%
Andres Jasson10%
Kasper Jørgensen7%
Bjarne Pudel5%
Kelvin John4%
Mylian Jimenez4%
Kasper Davidsen4%
Lars Kramer3%
Oliver Ross3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Jubril Adedeji0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent Müller0%
John Iredale0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Mads Bomholt0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Jørgensen31%
Kasper Jørgensen17%
Melker Widell15%
Jubril Adedeji12%
John Iredale7%
Oliver Ross7%
Mylian Jimenez4%
Andres Jasson3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Nicklas Helenius0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Lars Kramer0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent Müller0%
Kelvin John0%
Bjarne Pudel0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson0%
Mads Bomholt0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
AAL (24)
€10m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
Aalborg's squad is €6m more valuable than Hillerød's (€10m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€4m
LYN (5)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
Aalborg's attack is €1m more valuable than Hillerød's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (8)
€5m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
Aalborg and Hillerød have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
Aalborg's defence is €4m more valuable than Hillerød's (€6m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
AAL wins
1
Draws
0
HIL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aalborg vs Hillerød · H/A from AAL
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/25AHillerød Vs AAL2-2
16/03/24AHillerød Vs AAL1-2
27/08/23HAAL Vs Hillerød3-0

AalborgAalborg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/11/25AAC Horsens Vs AAL0-0
22/11/25HAAL Vs Kolding IF0-3
09/11/25AHvidovre Vs AAL2-2
01/11/25AMiddelfart Vs AAL1-2
25/10/25HAAL Vs Lyngby3-2
17/10/25AB 93 Vs AAL2-2
02/10/25HAAL Vs HB Koge2-1
27/09/25ALyngby Vs AAL2-1
21/09/25HAAL Vs B 933-0
17/09/25HAAL Vs FC Midtjylland0-3

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/11/25HHIL Vs Lyngby1-0
23/11/25AAC Horsens Vs HIL3-1
07/11/25AHB Koge Vs HIL1-1
01/11/25HHIL Vs Kolding IF1-1
25/10/25AHobro Vs HIL1-2
18/10/25HHIL Vs Hvidovre1-1
04/10/25AMiddelfart Vs HIL1-2
27/09/25HHIL Vs AC Horsens2-1
24/09/25HHIL Vs Aarhus1-2
20/09/25AHvidovre Vs HIL3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aalborg
Aalborg
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLD1.10
HomeLWWWL1.13
AwayLDWDD1.07
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%30%22%
AVG goals3.183.173.19
Over 1.5 %86%87%85%
Over 2.5 %68%74%63%
Over 3.5 %46%39%52%
Scored1.481.481.48
Conceded1.701.701.70
BTTS56%48%63%
Clean Sheet20%26%15%
Corners9.7610.159.33
Cards3.523.383.67
Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLW1.72
HomeLWDDW1.75
AwayLWWDL1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%50%46%
AVG goals2.963.122.81
Over 1.5 %84%92%77%
Over 2.5 %62%62%62%
Over 3.5 %34%29%38%
Scored1.721.791.65
Conceded1.241.331.15
BTTS62%62%62%
Clean Sheet30%25%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LyngbyLyngby3260
56%
1.9
6936+33
3.3
91%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3552.21.1
-
2AC HorsensAC Horsens3254
47%
1.7
4227+15
2.2
56%
41%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.30.8
-
3EsbjergEsbjerg3252
47%
1.6
4543+2
2.8
75%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.41.3
-
4HillerødHillerød3250
41%
1.6
4243-1
2.7
81%
59%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.3
-
5HvidovreHvidovre3246
34%
1.4
4339+4
2.6
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.2
-
6AalborgAalborg3246
38%
1.4
5047+3
3.0
78%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2261.61.5
-
7Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad3244
34%
1.4
5237+15
2.8
72%
53%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.2
-
8HobroHobro3242
34%
1.3
4043-3
2.6
72%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.21.3
-
9HB KogeHB Koge3240
34%
1.2
4248-6
2.8
81%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.31.5
-
10Kolding IFKolding IF3238
31%
1.2
3740-3
2.4
72%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.21.2
-
11B 93B 933237
31%
1.2
4458-14
3.2
81%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
12MiddelfartMiddelfart3215
9%
0.5
3277-45
3.4
78%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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