Aalborg is tipped to win, with a 48% chance of triumph, a 25% draw probability and a 27% chance for Hillerød to lift the trophy. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals in total, but the most likely total is two, a 23% chance. The single score the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 11.7% probability. Aalborg, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.85 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. Hillerød, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. The model’s selection includes an 82.4% chance of over 1.5 goals. The home win percentage is 48%, the draw 25% and the away win 27%. The recent form notes that Aalborg has returned from two straight defeats, while Hillerød is coming off a loss.
Results analysis
Aalborg’s win extends their recent run, turning a string of two defeats into a victory after a 1-2 loss to Hobro. The match finished 1-0, a clear outcome that surpassed the model’s expected total of 3.1 goals. The pre-match favourite was Home win, with an 48% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5, with an 82.4% chance, but it missed. The final result confirmed the home side’s triumph, leaving the model’s prediction accurate and the over-goal selection off the mark.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aalborg win✓ Hit
48.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hillerød win✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aalborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.57
1.81
1.44
1.57
1.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.52
1.85
1.31
1.25
1.75
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.50
2.50
1.50
3.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hillerød
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.33
1.27
0.93
1.33
1.73
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.29
1.32
1.29
0.86
1.29
1.79
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.5%
Under 2.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.2%
Under 3.5
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.3%
1-0 ✓
7.1%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
5.7%
0-0
5.6%
Aalborg goals ↓
Hillerød goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
4.9%
3.8%
1.7%
0.5%
1
7.1%
12%
6.9%
3.0%
1.0%
2
7.3%
9.5%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.4%
5.7%
3.7%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.0%
2.5%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aalborg goals (down), columns = Hillerød goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vejle
2.60
Hobro
2.40
Hvidovre
2.20
FC Fredericia
1.80
Aarhus Fremad
1.60
Aalborg
1.40
AB Copenhagen
1.20
Vendsyssel FF
1.00
Esbjerg
0.80
Kolding IF
0.60
HB Koge
0.20
Hillerød
0.20
Aalborg is 1.20 points better than Hillerød in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
3.20
Hobro
1.60
FC Fredericia
1.60
Hvidovre
1.60
Esbjerg
1.60
Aarhus Fremad
1.40
Hillerød
1.40
AB Copenhagen
1.40
Kolding IF
1.20
Vendsyssel FF
1.00
Aalborg
1.00
HB Koge
0.60
Aalborg is 0.40 goals worse than Hillerød in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.40
Hvidovre
0.80
Hobro
1.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Aalborg
1.40
Vendsyssel FF
1.60
Kolding IF
1.60
Vejle
2.00
Hillerød
2.20
Esbjerg
2.20
HB Koge
2.40
Aalborg is 0.80 goals better than Hillerød in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aalborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.69
0.44
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.72
0.85
0.46
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hillerød
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.73
0.27
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.50
0.79
0.21
0.43
0.79
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aalborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.87
1.12
1.00
1.07
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.80
1.00
0.85
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
0.75
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hillerød
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.53
0.67
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.82
0.50
0.64
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vejle
Hobro
Hvidovre
FC Fredericia
Aarhus Fremad
AB Copenhagen
Vendsyssel FF
Esbjerg
Kolding IF
HB Koge