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Aalborg vs Hobro Result & Analysis

Date: 26/11/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 1-2
Aalborg
Aalborg
Vs
47%
29%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hobro
Hobro
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aalborg winâś— Miss
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hobro winâś“ Hit
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

AalborgAalborg

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W31W11D20W31W41W21W10W22D11DH·HIL27/08H·KOL03/09A·SON15/09H·HB 22/09A·VEN29/09A·AC 06/10H·B 922/10A·KOL28/10H·FC 05/11A·NAE12/11
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.901.670.801.731.00
vs Stronger (4)0.251.000.001.000.501.00
vs Similar (21)2.000.812.000.642.001.00
vs Weaker (5)1.601.201.501.501.671.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L31W01L21W23L01L10W21W01L00DH·SON28/08A·FC 03/09H·AC 15/09A·B 922/09H·KOL01/10A·NAE08/10H·FC 20/10H·HB 27/10A·SON03/11H·HIL13/11
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.171.251.381.430.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)1.381.171.331.401.430.93
vs Weaker (1)0.001.000.001.00--
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.1%
Under 2.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.2%
Under 3.5
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.3%
No
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
10.3%
2-0
9.5%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.4%
1-2 âś“
6.0%
3-0
4.6%
Aalborg goals ↓
Hobro goals →
01234
010%7.4%4.1%1.3%0.3%
112%14%6.0%1.9%0.5%
29.5%9.1%4.3%1.4%0.3%
34.6%4.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%
41.7%1.6%0.8%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aalborg goals (down), columns = Hobro goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sonderjyske
2.12
Aalborg
2.03
Hillerød
1.53
Kolding IF
1.53
Hobro
1.47
FC Fredericia
1.47
AC Horsens
1.34
Vendsyssel FF
1.34
B 93
1.22
HB Koge
1.06
Naestved
0.84
FC Helsingor
0.50
Aalborg is 0.56 points better than Hobro in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 1.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sonderjyske
2.22
Aalborg
2.06
Hillerød
1.81
Kolding IF
1.62
FC Fredericia
1.44
B 93
1.41
Vendsyssel FF
1.41
HB Koge
1.34
Hobro
1.31
AC Horsens
1.16
Naestved
1.03
FC Helsingor
1.00
Aalborg is 0.75 goals better than Hobro in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sonderjyske
0.91
Aalborg
1.19
Hobro
1.25
Hillerød
1.28
FC Fredericia
1.31
AC Horsens
1.41
Kolding IF
1.44
Vendsyssel FF
1.56
Naestved
1.66
B 93
1.72
FC Helsingor
2.03
HB Koge
2.06
Aalborg is 0.06 goals better than Hobro in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AalborgAalborg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W01L10W11D20W10W10W11D11DH·HIL27/08H·KOL03/09A·SON15/09H·HB 22/09A·VEN29/09A·AC 06/10H·B 922/10A·KOL28/10H·FC 05/11A·NAE12/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.470.530.330.730.60
vs Stronger (4)0.250.250.000.500.500.00
vs Similar (21)0.670.430.550.180.800.70
vs Weaker (5)0.800.801.001.000.670.67
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W00D00D11D00D00D21W01L00DH·SON28/08A·FC 03/09H·AC 15/09A·B 922/09H·KOL01/10A·NAE08/10H·FC 20/10H·HB 27/10A·SON03/11H·HIL13/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.470.560.690.500.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.550.480.600.730.500.21
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AalborgAalborg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W21W10W10W20W21W11D00D11D00DH·HIL27/08H·KOL03/09A·SON15/09H·HB 22/09A·VEN29/09A·AC 06/10H·B 922/10A·KOL28/10H·FC 05/11A·NAE12/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.431.130.471.000.40
vs Stronger (4)0.000.750.000.500.001.00
vs Similar (21)1.330.381.450.451.200.30
vs Weaker (5)0.800.400.500.501.000.33
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D01L21W12L01L10W00D00D00DH·SON28/08A·FC 03/09H·AC 15/09A·B 922/09H·KOL01/10A·NAE08/10H·FC 20/10H·HB 27/10A·SON03/11H·HIL13/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.700.690.690.930.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.830.690.730.670.930.71
vs Weaker (1)0.001.000.001.00--
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.8%-------âś“ Hit
Over 1.570.4%-------âś“ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Aalborg · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Malthe Højholt33%
Mathias Jørgensen25%
John Iredale21%
Nicklas Helenius19%
Aaron Seydel17%
Kasper Jørgensen13%
Melker Widell11%
Mads Bomholt10%
Oliver Ross7%
Bjarne Pudel5%
Andres Jasson3%
Jubril Adedeji0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Lars Kramer0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent MĂĽller0%
Kelvin John0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Mylian Jimenez0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
NĂłel Atli ArnĂłrsson0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oumar Diakhité31%
Bjarne Pudel29%
Mylian Jimenez26%
Kasper Davidsen22%
Melker Widell19%
Lars Kramer17%
Marc Nielsen17%
Andres Jasson16%
Kasper Jørgensen13%
Jubril Adedeji12%
Andreas Bruus10%
Oliver Ross10%
Travis Hernes8%
Isak Hansen Aarøen7%
Mads Bomholt7%
NĂłel Atli ArnĂłrsson6%
Kelvin John4%
Vincent MĂĽller3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Nicklas Helenius0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Diego Caballo0%
Mathias Jørgensen0%
John Iredale0%
Elison Makolli0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicklas Helenius19%
Mathias Jørgensen16%
NĂłel Atli ArnĂłrsson12%
Melker Widell11%
Sebastian Otoa10%
Andres Jasson10%
Kasper Jørgensen7%
Bjarne Pudel5%
Kelvin John4%
Mylian Jimenez4%
Kasper Davidsen4%
Lars Kramer3%
Oliver Ross3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Jubril Adedeji0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent MĂĽller0%
John Iredale0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Mads Bomholt0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Jørgensen31%
Kasper Jørgensen17%
Melker Widell15%
Jubril Adedeji12%
John Iredale7%
Oliver Ross7%
Mylian Jimenez4%
Andres Jasson3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Nicklas Helenius0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Lars Kramer0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent MĂĽller0%
Kelvin John0%
Bjarne Pudel0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
NĂłel Atli ArnĂłrsson0%
Mads Bomholt0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (26)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
AAL (24)
€10m
FF (17)
€8m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
VF (3)
€1m
Aalborg's squad is €4m more valuable than Hobro's (€10m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€4m
SON (6)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
Aalborg and Hobro have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (7)
€3m
FF (5)
€3m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
Aalborg and Hobro have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (13)
€6m
AAL (12)
€6m
AH (12)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
VF (0)
€0m
Aalborg's defence is €3m more valuable than Hobro's (€6m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
AAL wins
0
Draws
0
HOB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aalborg vs Hobro · H/A from AAL
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/23AHobro Vs AAL1-2

AalborgAalborg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/11/23ANaestved Vs AAL1-1
05/11/23HAAL Vs FC Helsingor2-2
28/10/23AKolding IF Vs AAL0-1
22/10/23HAAL Vs B 932-1
06/10/23AAC Horsens Vs AAL1-4
29/09/23AVendsyssel FF Vs AAL1-3
22/09/23HAAL Vs HB Koge2-0
15/09/23ASonderjyske Vs AAL1-1
03/09/23HAAL Vs Kolding IF3-1
27/08/23HAAL Vs Hillerød3-0

HobroHobro

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/11/23HHOB Vs Hillerød0-0
03/11/23ASonderjyske Vs HOB1-0
27/10/23HHOB Vs HB Koge2-1
20/10/23HHOB Vs FC Helsingor1-0
08/10/23ANaestved Vs HOB1-0
01/10/23HHOB Vs Kolding IF2-3
22/09/23AB 93 Vs HOB1-2
15/09/23HHOB Vs AC Horsens0-1
03/09/23AFC Helsingor Vs HOB1-3
28/08/23HHOB Vs Sonderjyske1-2

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Aalborg
Aalborg
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDD1.35
HomeWWWWD1.42
AwayDWWWD1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%38%33%
AVG goals2.582.332.83
Over 1.5 %75%67%83%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %31%29%33%
Scored1.421.331.50
Conceded1.171.001.33
BTTS56%46%67%
Clean Sheet31%38%25%
Corners9.849.949.75
Cards3.583.733.44
Hobro
Hobro
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLD1.31
HomeLLWWD1.36
AwayWWWLL1.26
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%40%30%
AVG goals2.312.442.17
Over 1.5 %65%64%65%
Over 2.5 %48%56%39%
Over 3.5 %23%24%22%
Scored1.101.201.00
Conceded1.211.241.17
BTTS48%52%43%
Clean Sheet27%24%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SonderjyskeSonderjyske3268
62%
2.1
7129+42
3.1
84%
62%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3362.20.9
-
2AalborgAalborg3265
59%
2.0
6638+28
3.2
84%
69%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2262.11.2
-
3HillerødHillerød3249
41%
1.5
5841+17
3.1
78%
59%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.81.3
-
4Kolding IFKolding IF3249
44%
1.5
5246+6
3.1
78%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.4
-
5FC FredericiaFC Fredericia3247
41%
1.5
4642+4
2.8
75%
53%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
2331.41.3
-
6HobroHobro3247
44%
1.5
4240+2
2.6
72%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.31.2
-
7Vendsyssel FFVendsyssel FF3243
34%
1.3
4550-5
3.0
75%
53%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.6
-
8AC HorsensAC Horsens3243
38%
1.3
3745-8
2.6
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.21.4
-
9B 93B 933239
34%
1.2
4555-10
3.1
75%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
10HB KogeHB Koge3234
28%
1.1
4366-23
3.4
81%
59%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.32.1
-
11NaestvedNaestved3227
16%
0.8
3353-20
2.7
69%
47%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
12FC HelsingorFC Helsingor3216
6%
0.5
3265-33
3.0
75%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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