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Aalesund vs Skeid Result & Analysis

Date: 20/09/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 3-0
Aalesund
Aalesund
Vs
55%
24%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Skeid
Skeid
Norway: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aalesund win✓ Hit
55.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Skeid win✗ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AalesundAalesund

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-622D31W21W15L41W60W13L21W23L10WA·LYN30/07H·KON02/08A·STA06/08A·LIL10/08A·TRÆ13/08H·RAN18/08A·STA23/08A·STJ27/08H·EGE31/08A·RAU13/09
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.331.930.931.941.69
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.500.50--
vs Similar (22)2.141.642.091.002.182.27
vs Weaker (6)1.670.503.001.001.400.40
Clean sheet %30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Skeid) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SkeidSkeid

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D12L02L03L11D23L13L11DA·RAU26/07H·RAN30/07A·SOG02/08H·MJO06/08H·EGE10/08A·ASK13/08A·HOD17/08H·LYN23/08A·LIL30/08H·MOS14/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.870.792.141.251.62
vs Stronger (13)0.852.460.862.710.832.17
vs Similar (16)1.061.500.711.571.331.44
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalesund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.6%
Under 2.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.3%
Under 3.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
7.3%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
5.8%
2-2
5.8%
3-0 ✓
5.5%
Aalesund goals ↓
Skeid goals →
01234
05.1%3.9%2.9%1.1%0.3%
17.3%11%5.8%2.3%0.7%
28.3%9.8%5.8%2.3%0.7%
35.5%6.5%3.9%1.5%0.4%
42.8%3.3%1.9%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aalesund goals (down), columns = Skeid goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lillestrom
2.67
Brattvåg
2.25
Start
1.83
Kongsvinger
1.77
Egersund
1.75
Aalesund
1.69
Lyn
1.57
Ranheim
1.55
Sogndal
1.43
hodd
1.10
ODD Ballklubb
1.10
Asane
1.03
Stabaek
1.03
Raufoss
1.00
Moss
0.97
Mjondalen
0.83
Skeid
0.50
Grorud
0.00
Aalesund is 1.19 points better than Skeid in terms of average points per game (1.69 vs 0.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lillestrom
2.90
Kongsvinger
2.10
Start
1.93
Aalesund
1.91
Brattvåg
1.75
Egersund
1.72
Sogndal
1.63
Ranheim
1.61
Lyn
1.60
Stabaek
1.50
Raufoss
1.43
Moss
1.38
Asane
1.27
ODD Ballklubb
1.23
Mjondalen
1.20
Skeid
1.17
hodd
1.13
Grorud
0.50
Aalesund is 0.74 goals better than Skeid in terms of goals scored per game (1.91 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lillestrom
0.60
Brattvåg
1.00
Start
1.17
Lyn
1.23
Aalesund
1.25
Egersund
1.28
Kongsvinger
1.48
Sogndal
1.60
Ranheim
1.65
ODD Ballklubb
1.67
hodd
1.73
Asane
1.77
Stabaek
1.77
Raufoss
1.87
Grorud
2.00
Moss
2.12
Skeid
2.20
Mjondalen
2.37
Aalesund is 0.95 goals better than Skeid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 2.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AalesundAalesund

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L01L02L21W30W01L10W11D10WA·LYN30/07H·KON02/08A·STA06/08A·LIL10/08A·TRÆ13/08H·RAN18/08A·STA23/08A·STJ27/08H·EGE31/08A·RAU13/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.630.640.570.880.69
vs Stronger (2)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (22)0.860.860.730.731.001.00
vs Weaker (6)0.670.001.000.000.600.00
Clean sheet %53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Skeid) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SkeidSkeid

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D10W01L02L10W21W10W10WA·RAU26/07H·RAN30/07A·SOG02/08H·MJO06/08H·EGE10/08A·ASK13/08A·HOD17/08H·LYN23/08A·LIL30/08H·MOS14/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.600.430.640.810.56
vs Stronger (13)0.540.770.431.000.670.50
vs Similar (16)0.750.500.430.291.000.67
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalesund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aalesund over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalesund over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalesund over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skeid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skeid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skeid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AalesundAalesund

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L30W20W13L20W30W12L11D12L00DA·LYN30/07H·KON02/08A·STA06/08A·LIL10/08A·TRÆ13/08H·RAN18/08A·STA23/08A·STJ27/08H·EGE31/08A·RAU13/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.701.290.361.061.00
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.500.50--
vs Similar (22)1.270.771.360.271.181.27
vs Weaker (6)1.000.502.001.000.800.40
Clean sheet %53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Skeid) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SkeidSkeid

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D11D02L01L01L01L02L03L01LA·RAU26/07H·RAN30/07A·SOG02/08H·MJO06/08H·EGE10/08A·ASK13/08A·HOD17/08H·LYN23/08A·LIL30/08H·MOS14/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.270.361.500.441.06
vs Stronger (13)0.311.690.431.710.171.67
vs Similar (16)0.311.000.291.290.330.78
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalesund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aalesund over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalesund over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalesund over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skeid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skeid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skeid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.6%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Aalesund · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marcus Haagensen Reed38%
Kristian Lonebu31%
Mathias Christensen29%
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch29%
Henrik Melland21%
Jakob Nyland Örsahl11%
Ivan Djantou9%
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen6%
Uba Charles6%
Kristoffer Klaesson0%
Kristoffer Nessø0%
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson0%
Philip Sandvik Aukland0%
Ólafur Guðmundsson0%
Emil Engqvist0%
Hakon Butli Hammer0%
Aleksander Kjelsen0%
Luca Podlech0%
Elias Heggland Myrlid0%
Marius Andresen0%
Ulrik Syversen0%
Simen Haram0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson36%
Mathias Christensen29%
Marius Andresen27%
Marcus Haagensen Reed25%
Aleksander Kjelsen23%
Kristoffer Klaesson18%
Emil Engqvist18%
Philip Sandvik Aukland17%
Henrik Melland14%
Ólafur Guðmundsson13%
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen12%
Jakob Nyland Örsahl11%
Ulrik Syversen11%
Elias Heggland Myrlid8%
Simen Haram8%
Hakon Butli Hammer6%
Uba Charles6%
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch6%
Kristoffer Nessø0%
Luca Podlech0%
Ivan Djantou0%
Kristian Lonebu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch24%
Jakob Nyland Örsahl22%
Uba Charles18%
Hakon Butli Hammer12%
Marcus Haagensen Reed12%
Mathias Christensen12%
Ulrik Syversen11%
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson9%
Marius Andresen9%
Ivan Djantou9%
Henrik Melland7%
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen6%
Kristian Lonebu6%
Kristoffer Klaesson0%
Kristoffer Nessø0%
Philip Sandvik Aukland0%
Ólafur Guðmundsson0%
Emil Engqvist0%
Aleksander Kjelsen0%
Luca Podlech0%
Elias Heggland Myrlid0%
Simen Haram0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marcus Haagensen Reed38%
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson27%
Henrik Melland14%
Mathias Christensen12%
Marius Andresen9%
Kristian Lonebu6%
Uba Charles6%
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch6%
Kristoffer Klaesson0%
Kristoffer Nessø0%
Jakob Nyland Örsahl0%
Philip Sandvik Aukland0%
Ólafur Guðmundsson0%
Emil Engqvist0%
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen0%
Hakon Butli Hammer0%
Aleksander Kjelsen0%
Luca Podlech0%
Elias Heggland Myrlid0%
Ulrik Syversen0%
Simen Haram0%
Ivan Djantou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (25)
€14m
AAL (25)
€13m
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
STA (25)
€9m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (9)
€6m
STA (9)
€5m
AAL (7)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
STA (8)
€3m
OB (7)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
AAL wins
1
Draws
0
SKE wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aalesund vs Skeid · H/A from AAL
DateH/AGameScore
28/06/25ASkeid Vs AAL1-1

AalesundAalesund

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25ARaufoss Vs AAL0-1
31/08/25HAAL Vs Egersund2-3
27/08/25AStjørdals-Blink Vs AAL1-2
23/08/25AStart Vs AAL3-1
18/08/25HAAL Vs Ranheim6-0
13/08/25ATræff Vs AAL1-4
10/08/25ALillestrom Vs AAL5-1
06/08/25AStabaek Vs AAL1-2
02/08/25HAAL Vs Kongsvinger3-1
30/07/25ALyn Vs AAL2-2

SkeidSkeid

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/25HSKE Vs Moss1-1
30/08/25ALillestrom Vs SKE3-1
23/08/25HSKE Vs Lyn2-3
17/08/25Ahodd Vs SKE1-1
13/08/25AAsker Vs SKE3-0
10/08/25HSKE Vs Egersund0-2
06/08/25HSKE Vs Mjondalen1-2
02/08/25ASogndal Vs SKE1-1
30/07/25HSKE Vs Ranheim0-0
26/07/25ARaufoss Vs SKE1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aalesund
Aalesund
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.72
HomeLWWWL1.75
AwayLWLWW1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%50%50%
AVG goals3.223.293.15
Over 1.5 %76%75%77%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %46%50%42%
Scored1.842.041.65
Conceded1.381.251.50
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet32%33%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Skeid
Skeid
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 0 Wins / 5 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLD0.52
HomeDLLLD0.46
AwayDDLDL0.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %10%8%12%
AVG goals2.823.002.65
Over 1.5 %84%88%81%
Over 2.5 %54%58%50%
Over 3.5 %26%33%19%
Scored0.880.920.85
Conceded1.942.081.81
BTTS52%62%42%
Clean Sheet12%12%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LillestromLillestrom3080
83%
2.7
8718+69
3.5
87%
73%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6452.90.6
-
2EgersundEgersund3256
50%
1.8
5541+14
3.0
81%
47%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1121.71.3
-
3StartStart3055
53%
1.8
5835+23
3.1
90%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
2341.91.2
-
4KongsvingerKongsvinger3155
48%
1.8
6546+19
3.6
94%
74%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.11.5
-
5AalesundAalesund3254
44%
1.7
6140+21
3.2
81%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
5441.91.2
-
6RanheimRanheim3148
45%
1.5
5051-1
3.3
87%
71%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.6
-
7LynLyn3047
47%
1.6
4837+11
2.8
77%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.61.2
-
8SogndalSogndal3043
40%
1.4
4948+1
3.2
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.6
-
9ODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb3033
27%
1.1
3750-13
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.21.7
-
10hoddhodd3033
27%
1.1
3452-18
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
11StabaekStabaek3031
23%
1.0
4553-8
3.3
90%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5231.51.8
-
12AsaneAsane3031
23%
1.0
3853-15
3.0
90%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1021.31.8
-
13MossMoss3231
25%
1.0
4468-24
3.5
97%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.42.1
-
14RaufossRaufoss3030
23%
1.0
4356-13
3.3
83%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.41.9
-
15MjondalenMjondalen3025
20%
0.8
3671-35
3.6
87%
67%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.4
-
16SkeidSkeid3015
7%
0.5
3566-31
3.4
93%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
17BrattvågBrattvåg49
75%
2.2
74+3
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
18GrorudGrorud20
0%
0.0
14-3
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.0
-
Norway: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →

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