Aalesund’s recent dip, ending with a defeat to Viking, sets the stage for a cautious home outing, while Start’s win over KFUM Oslo gives them a confidence lift. The model deems a home win the most likely outcome, assigning a 48% chance to Aalesund triumph, 24% for a draw, and 28% for Start victory. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a lively encounter, with the most probable scoreline 1-1 at 10.4%. Aalesund averages 1.78 goals scored and 2.11 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Start nets 0.91 and concedes 1.55 on the road. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3% with a 5% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.7% with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.1% with a 4% edge, Under 7.5 at 95.6%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.0% with an 8% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 90.9% with a 1% edge, Under 6.5 at 90.3%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 90.0% with a 1% edge.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aalesund win
47.2%
Avg Implied 43.7% · @ 2.13
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.22
Superbet
2.20
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Draw
24.2%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.76
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.99
Betfair
3.90
Bet365
3.90
1xBet
3.89
10Bet
3.85
Start win
28.5%
Avg Implied 31.6% · @ 2.95
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.15
1xBet
3.09
Marathonbet
3.02
BetVictor
3.00
Betano
3.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aalesund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.87
1.86
2.07
1.81
1.69
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
2.11
1.75
2.50
1.00
1.80
vs Similar (20)
2.00
1.85
1.78
2.11
2.18
1.64
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Start) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Start
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.87
1.67
1.60
1.07
2.13
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
3.14
0.75
2.25
1.33
4.33
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.55
1.78
1.56
0.91
1.55
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.00
3.00
0.50
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.6%
@ 1.13+3.1%
Under 1.5
14.4%
@ 5.33-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.16
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Under
Betfair
6.00
Pinnacle
5.66
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.35
BetVictor
5.25
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.8%
@ 1.48+1.7%
Under 2.5
35.2%
@ 2.53-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.70
Pinnacle
2.61
10Bet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
BetVictor
2.50
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.8%
@ 2.21+0.3%
Under 3.5
57.2%
@ 1.63-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.29
1xBet
2.26
Unibet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
Under
10Bet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Both teams to score
Yes
65.9%
@ 1.42+0.8%
No
34.1%
@ 2.65-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
No
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.70
Superbet
2.67
1xBet
2.66
10Bet
2.65
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 7.49+4.7%
2-1
9.2%@ 8.38+3.8%
1-2
7.0%@ 9.96+2.5%
2-2
6.6%@ 10.33+2.3%
2-0
6.4%@ 12.63+2.8%
3-1
5.8%@ 13.29+2.4%
1-0
5.7%@ 11.01+1.7%
0-0
4.5%@ 16.10+1.7%
Aalesund goals ↓
Start goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.2%
3.7%
1.8%
0.6%
1
5.7%
11%
7.0%
3.4%
1.2%
2
6.4%
9.2%
6.6%
3.2%
1.2%
3
4.0%
5.8%
4.2%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.9%
2.7%
2.0%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aalesund goals (down), columns = Start goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.44
Viking
2.39
Tromso
1.94
Molde
1.67
Fredrikstad
1.44
Lillestrom
1.44
Brann
1.44
Rosenborg
1.33
Ham-Kam
1.28
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.28
Valerenga
1.17
KFUM Oslo
1.06
Sandefjord
1.06
Kristiansund BK
0.89
Aalesund
0.83
Start
0.72
Aalesund is 0.11 points better than Start in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 0.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.61
Viking
2.33
Molde
2.00
Brann
2.00
Tromso
1.89
Valerenga
1.72
Aalesund
1.56
Rosenborg
1.50
Ham-Kam
1.44
Lillestrom
1.33
Fredrikstad
1.22
KFUM Oslo
1.11
Start
1.11
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.11
Kristiansund BK
0.94
Sandefjord
0.83
Aalesund is 0.44 goals better than Start in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bodo/Glimt
0.78
Viking
1.00
Tromso
1.11
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.28
Sandefjord
1.28
Lillestrom
1.39
Rosenborg
1.44
Brann
1.50
Fredrikstad
1.56
Molde
1.61
Kristiansund BK
1.61
KFUM Oslo
1.72
Ham-Kam
1.78
Valerenga
2.11
Start
2.17
Aalesund
2.39
Aalesund is 0.22 goals worse than Start in terms of goals conceded per game (2.39 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bodo/Glimt
64%
Brann
59%
Molde
58%
Lillestrom
53%
Rosenborg
52%
Viking
51%
Sandefjord
50%
Tromso
49%
Valerenga
49%
Ham-Kam
48%
Fredrikstad
47%
KFUM Oslo
46%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
45%
Aalesund
43%
Kristiansund BK
43%
Start
42%
Aalesund is 1.2 percentage points better than Start in terms of average possession (43% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aalesund
For 6.0 · Against 7.4 · Total 13.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 9.9 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Start
For 4.1 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aalesund
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.2
11.8
12.6
1.3
1.6
1.1
23.2
24.9
21.1
vs Stronger (11)
13.0
11.8
14.7
2.2
3.0
1.5
24.0
28.8
17.7
vs Similar (34)
11.7
11.9
11.5
1.3
1.4
1.2
22.8
22.7
22.8
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
80%
73%
89%
20%
27%
14%
55%
64%
44%
% under line
20%
27%
11%
80%
73%
86%
45%
36%
56%
This opponent (Start) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Start
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.6
8.8
1.4
1.3
1.4
23.6
23.3
23.8
vs Stronger (7)
9.7
7.5
12.7
3.6
3.5
3.7
23.1
24.8
21.0
vs Similar (36)
8.8
11.2
6.8
1.2
1.1
1.4
23.8
22.2
25.2
vs Weaker (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
39%
56%
22%
18%
17%
19%
78%
67%
89%
% under line
61%
44%
78%
82%
83%
81%
22%
33%
11%
This opponent (Aalesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Aalesund
12.1
Viking
12.0
Valerenga
11.9
Rosenborg
11.3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11.2
Brann
11.1
Bodo/Glimt
10.9
Sandefjord
10.9
Lillestrom
10.6
Ham-Kam
10.4
Kristiansund BK
10.3
Molde
10.1
Fredrikstad
9.9
Start
9.2
KFUM Oslo
9.0
Tromso
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Viking
4.2
Molde
4.2
Start
4.1
Lillestrom
4.0
Brann
4.0
Rosenborg
4.0
Valerenga
4.0
KFUM Oslo
3.8
Sandefjord
3.7
Kristiansund BK
3.7
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3.3
Aalesund
3.3
Tromso
3.3
Fredrikstad
3.2
Ham-Kam
3.0
Bodo/Glimt
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sandefjord
25.5
Viking
24.5
Rosenborg
24.4
Valerenga
24.1
Brann
24.0
Tromso
23.9
Start
23.6
Ham-Kam
23.2
Molde
23.0
Lillestrom
22.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
22.6
Kristiansund BK
22.0
KFUM Oslo
21.8
Aalesund
21.6
Fredrikstad
20.9
Bodo/Glimt
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
62.2%
@ 1.37-4.7%
Under 9.5
37.8%
@ 2.77+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Under
Betano
3.10
Superbet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.74
Unibet
2.65
1xBet
2.60
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.8%
Under 3.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.3%
Under 21.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aalesund or Draw
70.7%
Avg Implied 68.5% · @ 1.36
Edge
+2.2%
47%
24%
29%
covers Aalesund + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Aalesund or Start
77.9%
Avg Implied 75.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
+2.4%
47%
24%
29%
covers Aalesund + Start
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Draw or Start
51.4%
Avg Implied 55.9% · @ 1.67
Edge
-4.6%
47%
24%
29%
covers Draw + Start
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.71
Bet365
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Betfair
1.67
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aalesund over/under 0.5
Over
88.7%
@ 1.14+7.1%
Under
11.3%
@ 5.05-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Aalesund over/under 1.5
Over
64.1%
@ 1.74+10.4%
Under
35.9%
@ 2.02-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.79
Unibet
1.78
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Aalesund over/under 2.5
Over
37.2%
@ 3.31+9.2%
Under
62.8%
@ 1.29-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.40
Superbet
3.35
1xBet
3.35
Under
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Aalesund over/under 3.5
Over
17.7%
@ 7.22+4.8%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.07-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Betfair
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.04
Start over/under 0.5
Over
81.4%
@ 1.22+5.2%
Under
18.6%
@ 3.91-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Start over/under 1.5
Over
50.2%
@ 2.11+5.8%
Under
49.8%
@ 1.68-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.14
Betfair
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Under
Superbet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Start over/under 2.5
Over
23.9%
@ 4.51+3.2%
Under
76.1%
@ 1.17-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Pinnacle
4.58
Bet365
4.50
Under
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Start over/under 3.5
Over
9.1%
@ 10.20-0.2%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.04+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.50
Superbet
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aalesund, so a minus line means Aalesund give that many goals of a start and Start receive them. At -1, Aalesund must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aalesund win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aalesund)
Aalesund -2
14.7%
@ 7.60+2.9%
Draw -2
14.7%
@ 6.09-0.1%
Start +2
70.6%
@ 1.23-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Handicap -1 (Aalesund)
Aalesund -1
29.4%
@ 3.68+5.0%
Draw -1
19.2%
@ 4.11-2.6%
Start +1
51.4%
@ 1.67-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.70
Betfair
3.60
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.69
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Handicap +1 (Aalesund)
Aalesund +1
70.7%
@ 1.38+5.5%
Draw +1
14.7%
@ 4.81-4.0%
Start -1
14.6%
@ 5.57-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Draw
Marathonbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.25
Handicap +2 (Aalesund)
Aalesund +2
85.4%
@ 1.11+3.6%
Draw +2
8.8%
@ 8.17-2.4%
Start -2
5.9%
@ 12.83-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
7.50
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
10.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aalesund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
0.93
0.79
1.00
0.81
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.20
0.75
1.00
0.78
1.36
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Start) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Start
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.60
0.87
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.29
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.50
0.78
0.67
0.55
0.36
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.6%
@ 1.23-2.6%
Under 0.5
27.4%
@ 3.74+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.7%
@ 2.15-4.6%
Under 1.5
61.3%
@ 1.64+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Betfair
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.2%
@ 4.76-5.3%
Under 2.5
85.8%
@ 1.15+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
BetVictor
4.80
Betfair
4.80
Under
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aalesund over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.8%
@ 1.68+2.7%
Under
42.2%
@ 2.07-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Aalesund over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.9%
@ 4.39-3.2%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.17+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.35
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Aalesund over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.8%
@ 11.25-4.5%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Start over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.1%
@ 1.91-11.6%
Under
62.9%
@ 1.81+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.90
Unibet
1.89
Under
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Betano
1.78
Start over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.7%
@ 5.48-8.2%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.11+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
Betano
5.50
Superbet
5.40
1xBet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Under
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
Start over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
@ 14.50-4.5%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aalesund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.07
0.93
1.29
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
1.11
1.00
1.50
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.80
1.10
0.78
1.33
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Start) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Start
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.17
1.07
0.73
0.40
1.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.86
0.25
0.75
0.33
3.33
vs Similar (20)
0.65
1.05
1.00
0.89
0.36
1.18
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
3.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.5%
@ 1.13+1.1%
Under 0.5
16.5%
@ 5.29-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.10
Under
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.40
Superbet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.7%
@ 1.70-4.2%
Under 1.5
49.3%
@ 2.06+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Under
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
William Hil
2.05
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.5%
@ 3.11-5.3%
Under 2.5
75.5%
@ 1.32+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
William Hil
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aalesund over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.3%
@ 1.47-3.8%
Under
40.7%
@ 2.52+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Under
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.55
10Bet
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Aalesund over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.3%
@ 3.20-2.6%
Under
73.7%
@ 1.30+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
10Bet
3.25
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Aalesund over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.9%
@ 7.97-2.8%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.05+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.40
1xBet
8.40
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Start over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.8%
@ 1.62-8.2%
Under
51.2%
@ 2.15+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Under
1xBet
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Start over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.9%
@ 4.03-5.1%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.20+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.33
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Start over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
@ 10.00-6.3%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
-
-
+6.3%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+4.5%
Under 7.5
95.6%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-1.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.11
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
+8.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
+2.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
90.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
+0.2%
Under 6.5
90.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-2.3%
Home over 0.5 goals
88.7%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+7.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.15
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
+5.3%
Over 1.5
85.6%
1.13
Pinnacle
1.16
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+3.1%
Home +2 handicap
85.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
-
-
+3.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.13
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.10
+1.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
82.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Marathonbet
1.04
-4.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
+5.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.1%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+3.2%
Away over 0.5 goals
81.4%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
+5.2%
Under 5.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
80.6%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
-6.0%
Home or Away
77.9%
1.24
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
+2.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
76.1%
1.17
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-3.2%
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.5%
1.32
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
+5.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.7%
1.30
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+2.6%
Over 8.5 corners
73.6%
1.21
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-2.1%
Over 2.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.6%
1.23
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-2.6%
Over 21.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.7%
1.36
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
+2.2%
Home +1 handicap
70.7%
1.38
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+5.5%
Away +2 handicap
70.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
-2.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aalesund
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marcus Haagensen Reed38%
Kristian Lonebu31%
Mathias Christensen29%
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch29%
Henrik Melland21%
Jakob Nyland Örsahl11%
Ivan Djantou9%
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen6%
Uba Charles6%
Kristoffer Klaesson0%
Kristoffer Nessø0%
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson0%
Philip Sandvik Aukland0%
Ólafur Guðmundsson0%
Emil Engqvist0%
Hakon Butli Hammer0%
Aleksander Kjelsen0%
Luca Podlech0%
Elias Heggland Myrlid0%
Marius Andresen0%
Ulrik Syversen0%
Simen Haram0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson36%
Mathias Christensen29%
Marius Andresen27%
Marcus Haagensen Reed25%
Aleksander Kjelsen23%
Kristoffer Klaesson18%
Emil Engqvist18%
Philip Sandvik Aukland17%
Henrik Melland14%
Ólafur Guðmundsson13%
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen12%
Jakob Nyland Örsahl11%
Ulrik Syversen11%
Elias Heggland Myrlid8%
Simen Haram8%
Hakon Butli Hammer6%
Uba Charles6%
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch6%
Kristoffer Nessø0%
Luca Podlech0%
Ivan Djantou0%
Kristian Lonebu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch24%
Jakob Nyland Örsahl22%
Uba Charles18%
Hakon Butli Hammer12%
Marcus Haagensen Reed12%
Mathias Christensen12%
Ulrik Syversen11%
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson9%
Marius Andresen9%
Ivan Djantou9%
Henrik Melland7%
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen6%
Kristian Lonebu6%
Kristoffer Klaesson0%
Kristoffer Nessø0%
Philip Sandvik Aukland0%
Ólafur Guðmundsson0%
Emil Engqvist0%
Aleksander Kjelsen0%
Luca Podlech0%
Elias Heggland Myrlid0%
Simen Haram0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marcus Haagensen Reed38%
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson27%
Henrik Melland14%
Mathias Christensen12%
Marius Andresen9%
Kristian Lonebu6%
Uba Charles6%
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch6%
Kristoffer Klaesson0%
Kristoffer Nessø0%
Jakob Nyland Örsahl0%
Philip Sandvik Aukland0%
Ólafur Guðmundsson0%
Emil Engqvist0%
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen0%
Hakon Butli Hammer0%
Aleksander Kjelsen0%
Luca Podlech0%
Elias Heggland Myrlid0%
Ulrik Syversen0%
Simen Haram0%
Ivan Djantou0%
Start
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jesper Cornelius22%
Steve Mvoué18%
Hakon Lorentzen17%
Altin Ujkani17%
Deni Dashaev17%
Ousmane Diallo Toure12%
Erlend Dahl Reitan12%
Erlend Segberg12%
Tom Strannegård12%
Eirik Schulze7%
Jacob Pryts0%
Sebastian Griesbeck0%
Mikael Ugland0%
Fredrik Palerud0%
Kristoffer Tønnessen0%
John Olav Norheim0%
Markus Soomets0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
James Ampofo0%
Omar Jebali0%
Lukas Hjelleset Gausdal0%
Alexander Gurendal0%
Santino Samuyiwa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Erlend Dahl Reitan41%
Steve Mvoué36%
Altin Ujkani33%
Kristoffer Tønnessen20%
Alexander Gurendal20%
Mikael Ugland19%
Ousmane Diallo Toure19%
Erlend Segberg18%
Deni Dashaev17%
Sebastian Griesbeck14%
Eirik Schulze14%
John Olav Norheim14%
Fredrik Palerud11%
Omar Jebali8%
James Ampofo7%
Jacob Pryts6%
Jesper Cornelius6%
Hakon Lorentzen0%
Markus Soomets0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Tom Strannegård0%
Lukas Hjelleset Gausdal0%
Santino Samuyiwa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Strannegård18%
Hakon Lorentzen17%
Eirik Schulze14%
Erlend Segberg12%
Jesper Cornelius11%
Omar Jebali8%
Mikael Ugland6%
Jacob Pryts0%
Sebastian Griesbeck0%
Erlend Dahl Reitan0%
Fredrik Palerud0%
Kristoffer Tønnessen0%
John Olav Norheim0%
Steve Mvoué0%
Altin Ujkani0%
Markus Soomets0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Ousmane Diallo Toure0%
James Ampofo0%
Deni Dashaev0%
Lukas Hjelleset Gausdal0%
Alexander Gurendal0%
Santino Samuyiwa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jesper Cornelius33%
James Ampofo20%
Deni Dashaev17%
Eirik Schulze14%
Hakon Lorentzen11%
John Olav Norheim7%
Mikael Ugland6%
Erlend Segberg6%
Jacob Pryts0%
Sebastian Griesbeck0%
Erlend Dahl Reitan0%
Fredrik Palerud0%
Kristoffer Tønnessen0%
Steve Mvoué0%
Altin Ujkani0%
Markus Soomets0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Tom Strannegård0%
Ousmane Diallo Toure0%
Omar Jebali0%
Lukas Hjelleset Gausdal0%
Alexander Gurendal0%
Santino Samuyiwa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (24)
€75m
VIK (27)
€47m
MOL (26)
€35m
BRA (25)
€27m
ROS (23)
€23m
S0F (24)
€16m
VAL (22)
€16m
FRE (25)
€15m
TRO (22)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
AAL (25)
€13m
KB (21)
€13m
SAN (23)
€12m
HAM (24)
€10m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
Aalesund's squad is €5m more valuable than Start's (€13m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (10)
€21m
MOL (7)
€13m
BRA (10)
€11m
ROS (8)
€10m
S0F (10)
€9m
LIL (9)
€6m
VAL (7)
€6m
AAL (7)
€5m
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
SAN (8)
€4m
TRO (6)
€4m
HAM (10)
€4m
KO (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
Aalesund's attack is €3m more valuable than Start's (€5m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€27m
VIK (5)
€12m
MOL (8)
€7m
BRA (4)
€7m
VAL (6)
€5m
KB (6)
€4m
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ROS (4)
€3m
S0F (5)
€3m
STA (8)
€3m
HAM (6)
€3m
TRO (5)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
SAN (4)
€2m
KO (5)
€2m
Aalesund's midfield is €1m more valuable than Start's (€4m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (10)
€26m
VIK (12)
€15m
MOL (11)
€15m
ROS (11)
€9m
BRA (11)
€9m
TRO (11)
€8m
FRE (16)
€8m
VAL (9)
€5m
SAN (11)
€5m
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
S0F (9)
€4m
HAM (8)
€4m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
Aalesund and Start have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Norway: Eliteserien 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bodo/Glimt
Viking
Tromso
Molde
Brann
Lillestrom
Fredrikstad
Rosenborg
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Ham-Kam
Valerenga
Sandefjord
KFUM Oslo
Kristiansund BK