PythiaFootballBETA
Aalesund hosts Tromso in a Norway: Eliteserien match. Recent form suggests a closely contested game, as Aalesund has been coming off a draw, while Tromso has been coming off a win. The model predicts an away win, with a 43% probability, making it the favourite match result. The draw is less likely at 26%, and the home win is the least probable at 31%.
The expected total goals stand at 3.1, indicating a potentially high-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12%. Aalesund's home form shows an average of 1.88 goals scored and conceded. Tromso's away form is less impressive, with an average of 1.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded against weaker opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a probability of 82.1% and an edge of 4%, and Over 21.5 fouls, which has hit. The probabilities for home win, draw, and away win are 31%, 26%, and 43% respectively.
The win extends Aalesund's recent form, coming off a draw, but it was Tromso who ultimately took the three points in a high-scoring match. The final score was 2-6 in favour of the away side. The model's selection, Tromso to win, was correct, given a 43% pre-match probability. The suggested picks largely came in, with the model predicting Over 1.5 goals, which hit with an 82.1% probability, and Over 21.5 fouls, which also hit with a 71.9% probability.
Aalesund| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 1.47 | 1.86 | 1.29 | 1.94 | 1.62 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.67 | 1.56 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.89 | 1.58 | 1.67 | 1.56 | 2.10 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
Tromso| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.03 | 1.88 | 0.76 | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 5.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.47 | 0.94 | 1.82 | 0.82 | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 2.08 | 0.83 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
| Tromso goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 12% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
AalesundTromsoAalesund| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.6 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 23.4 | 25.0 | 21.4 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 12.0 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 23.8 | 29.0 | 18.7 |
| vs Similar (35) | 11.3 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 23.2 | 23.0 | 23.5 |
| vs Weaker (5) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 75% | 67% | 86% | 18% | 26% | 11% | 62% | 67% | 57% |
| % under line | 25% | 33% | 14% | 82% | 74% | 89% | 38% | 33% | 43% |
Tromso| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 23.5 | 22.7 | 24.3 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 18.7 | 19.0 | 18.5 |
| vs Similar (28) | 9.1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 24.3 | 24.2 | 24.4 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 8.6 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 23.1 | 20.6 | 25.6 |
| % over line | 36% | 35% | 38% | 44% | 46% | 42% | 64% | 52% | 76% |
| % under line | 64% | 65% | 62% | 56% | 54% | 58% | 36% | 48% | 24% |
Aalesund| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.73 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.44 | 1.11 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Tromso| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.40 | 1.06 | 0.29 | 0.85 | 0.54 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.82 | 0.41 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.25 | 0.33 | 1.17 | 0.17 | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+46pp vs league) | |||||
Aalesund| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.73 | 1.14 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.22 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.89 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Tromso| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.63 | 0.82 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 0.85 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 4.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.82 | 0.45 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 85.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 84.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 82.1% | 1.19 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.20 | +4.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 70.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/10/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 11/06/23 | H | 2-3 | |
| 13/11/22 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/22 | H | 2-2 |
Aalesund| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/07/26 | A | 6-1 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 25/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 2-1 |
Tromso| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 23/07/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/07/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 29/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 29/04/26 | H | 0-5 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 41 | 76% | 2.4 | 43 | 12 | +31 | 3.2 | 88% | 71% | 41% | 10.1 | 59% | 2.3 | 12% | 19.6 | 29% | 75 | 22 | 27 | 26 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 65% |
| 2 |  Viking | 17 | 40 | 76% | 2.4 | 40 | 17 | +23 | 3.4 | 88% | 76% | 24% | 12.2 | 82% | 4.9 | 81% | 24.9 | 65% | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 3 | Tromso | 17 | 34 | 59% | 2.0 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 3.2 | 82% | 53% | 47% | 9.6 | 41% | 2.8 | 33% | 23.1 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 4 |  Molde | 17 | 27 | 47% | 1.6 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 3.4 | 82% | 65% | 41% | 9.9 | 47% | 4.1 | 59% | 24.6 | 59% | 35 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 59% |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 17 | 26 | 47% | 1.5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 2.6 | 88% | 47% | 29% | 10.5 | 65% | 4.6 | 62% | 25.6 | 71% | 14 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 6 |  Brann | 17 | 25 | 47% | 1.5 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 3.7 | 94% | 88% | 47% | 11.9 | 71% | 3.8 | 65% | 24.1 | 65% | 25 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 59% |
| 7 |  Rosenborg | 17 | 24 | 41% | 1.4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 2.8 | 94% | 53% | 24% | 12.4 | 71% | 4.0 | 62% | 26.3 | 76% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 8 |  Fredrikstad | 17 | 23 | 41% | 1.4 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 2.6 | 76% | 53% | 29% | 9.9 | 65% | 3.6 | 50% | 22.5 | 59% | 15 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 17 | 22 | 35% | 1.3 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 2.5 | 71% | 53% | 18% | 10.3 | 59% | 3.5 | 41% | 22.7 | 59% | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 45% |
| 10 |  Ham-Kam | 17 | 22 | 35% | 1.3 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 3.2 | 88% | 71% | 35% | 9.5 | 53% | 3.4 | 44% | 24.7 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 11 |  Valerenga | 17 | 21 | 35% | 1.2 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 3.6 | 82% | 59% | 47% | 12.8 | 71% | 3.4 | 44% | 21.8 | 35% | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 12 |  KFUM Oslo | 17 | 19 | 29% | 1.1 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 2.7 | 82% | 53% | 29% | 9.1 | 59% | 3.8 | 59% | 21.9 | 47% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 13 |  Sandefjord | 17 | 18 | 29% | 1.1 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 2.2 | 65% | 47% | 18% | 12.2 | 88% | 3.8 | 56% | 24.7 | 76% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 17 | 15 | 24% | 0.9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 2.5 | 82% | 53% | 12% | 10.8 | 59% | 4.2 | 53% | 23.9 | 59% | 13 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 15 | Aalesund | 17 | 15 | 12% | 0.9 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 4.0 | 94% | 65% | 53% | 12.4 | 88% | 3.6 | 50% | 23.2 | 59% | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 43% |
| 16 |  Start | 17 | 10 | 12% | 0.6 | 16 | 38 | -22 | 3.2 | 94% | 59% | 24% | 8.9 | 35% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.6 | 76% | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 42% |