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Aarhus Fremad vs Aalborg Result & Analysis

Date: 29/08/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 5-1
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
Vs
35%
28%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aalborg
Aalborg
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aarhus Fremad winâś“ Hit
35.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aalborg winâś— Miss
37.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W12L00D12L02L30W31W02L22D22DA·VAT07/08A·VSK03/09A·AC 19/07A·HB 25/07H·LYN02/08A·SKI05/08H·HIL09/08A·HVI15/08H·KOL20/08A·MID23/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.301.671.671.291.14
vs Stronger (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Similar (7)1.141.291.671.670.751.00
vs Weaker (2)2.501.00--2.501.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AalborgAalborg

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L13L01L22D11D11D20W02L01L40WH·SIL18/05A·LYN24/05A·KOL19/07A·HIL26/07H·HOB01/08A·VEN06/08A·HB 10/08H·AC 15/08A·ESB19/08H·HVI22/08← Superliga1. Division →
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.801.211.931.191.69
vs Stronger (4)0.501.750.672.000.001.00
vs Similar (25)1.321.841.361.911.291.79
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.7%
Under 2.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
7.5%
0-0
7.4%
1-0
7.3%
0-2
6.2%
2-0
5.8%
Aarhus Fremad goals ↓
Aalborg goals →
01234
07.4%7.5%6.2%2.9%1.0%
17.3%13%8.4%4.0%1.4%
25.8%8.2%5.8%2.7%1.0%
32.7%3.8%2.7%1.2%0.4%
40.9%1.3%0.9%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aarhus Fremad goals (down), columns = Aalborg goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lyngby
1.88
AC Horsens
1.69
Esbjerg
1.62
Hillerød
1.56
Aalborg
1.44
Hvidovre
1.44
Aarhus Fremad
1.38
Hobro
1.31
HB Koge
1.25
Kolding IF
1.19
B 93
1.16
Middelfart
0.47
Aarhus Fremad is 0.06 points worse than Aalborg in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lyngby
2.16
Aarhus Fremad
1.62
Aalborg
1.56
Esbjerg
1.41
B 93
1.38
Hvidovre
1.34
Hillerød
1.31
AC Horsens
1.31
HB Koge
1.31
Hobro
1.25
Kolding IF
1.16
Middelfart
1.00
Aarhus Fremad is 0.06 goals better than Aalborg in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
AC Horsens
0.84
Lyngby
1.12
Aarhus Fremad
1.16
Hvidovre
1.22
Kolding IF
1.25
Hobro
1.34
Hillerød
1.34
Esbjerg
1.34
Aalborg
1.47
HB Koge
1.50
B 93
1.81
Middelfart
2.41
Aarhus Fremad is 0.31 goals better than Aalborg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L00D01L01L20W20W02L01L11DA·VAT07/08A·VSK03/09A·AC 19/07A·HB 25/07H·LYN02/08A·SKI05/08H·HIL09/08A·HVI15/08H·KOL20/08A·MID23/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.700.670.670.710.71
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (7)0.570.710.670.670.500.75
vs Weaker (2)1.500.50--1.500.50
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AalborgAalborg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L00D21W01L00D10W01L00D10WH·SIL18/05A·LYN24/05A·KOL19/07A·HIL26/07H·HOB01/08A·VEN06/08A·HB 10/08H·AC 15/08A·ESB19/08H·HVI22/08← Superliga1. Division →
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.770.430.860.380.69
vs Stronger (4)0.250.750.330.670.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.440.800.450.910.430.71
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D11D01L10W11D00D21W11DA·VAT07/08A·VSK03/09A·AC 19/07A·HB 25/07H·LYN02/08A·SKI05/08H·HIL09/08A·HVI15/08H·KOL20/08A·MID23/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.601.001.000.570.43
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (7)0.570.571.001.000.250.25
vs Weaker (2)1.000.50--1.000.50
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AalborgAalborg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L12L01L01L10W11D10W01L01L30WH·SIL18/05A·LYN24/05A·KOL19/07A·HIL26/07H·HOB01/08A·VEN06/08A·HB 10/08H·AC 15/08A·ESB19/08H·HVI22/08← Superliga1. Division →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.030.791.070.811.00
vs Stronger (4)0.251.000.331.330.000.00
vs Similar (25)0.881.040.911.000.861.07
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.8%-------âś“ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Aalborg · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Malthe Højholt33%
Mathias Jørgensen25%
John Iredale21%
Nicklas Helenius19%
Aaron Seydel17%
Kasper Jørgensen13%
Melker Widell11%
Mads Bomholt10%
Oliver Ross7%
Bjarne Pudel5%
Andres Jasson3%
Jubril Adedeji0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Lars Kramer0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent MĂĽller0%
Kelvin John0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Mylian Jimenez0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
NĂłel Atli ArnĂłrsson0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oumar Diakhité31%
Bjarne Pudel29%
Mylian Jimenez26%
Kasper Davidsen22%
Melker Widell19%
Lars Kramer17%
Marc Nielsen17%
Andres Jasson16%
Kasper Jørgensen13%
Jubril Adedeji12%
Andreas Bruus10%
Oliver Ross10%
Travis Hernes8%
Isak Hansen Aarøen7%
Mads Bomholt7%
NĂłel Atli ArnĂłrsson6%
Kelvin John4%
Vincent MĂĽller3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Nicklas Helenius0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Diego Caballo0%
Mathias Jørgensen0%
John Iredale0%
Elison Makolli0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicklas Helenius19%
Mathias Jørgensen16%
NĂłel Atli ArnĂłrsson12%
Melker Widell11%
Sebastian Otoa10%
Andres Jasson10%
Kasper Jørgensen7%
Bjarne Pudel5%
Kelvin John4%
Mylian Jimenez4%
Kasper Davidsen4%
Lars Kramer3%
Oliver Ross3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Jubril Adedeji0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent MĂĽller0%
John Iredale0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Mads Bomholt0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Jørgensen31%
Kasper Jørgensen17%
Melker Widell15%
Jubril Adedeji12%
John Iredale7%
Oliver Ross7%
Mylian Jimenez4%
Andres Jasson3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Nicklas Helenius0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Lars Kramer0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent MĂĽller0%
Kelvin John0%
Bjarne Pudel0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
NĂłel Atli ArnĂłrsson0%
Mads Bomholt0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
AAL (24)
€10m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
Aarhus Fremad's squad is €7m less valuable than Aalborg's (€3m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€4m
LYN (5)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
Aarhus Fremad's attack is €1m less valuable than Aalborg's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (8)
€5m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
Aarhus Fremad and Aalborg have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
Aarhus Fremad's defence is €5m less valuable than Aalborg's (€1m vs €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
AF wins
0
Draws
0
AAL wins

Head-to-head

Aarhus Fremad vs Aalborg · H/A from AF
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/25AMiddelfart Vs AF2-2
20/08/25HAF Vs Kolding IF2-2
15/08/25AHvidovre Vs AF2-0
09/08/25HAF Vs Hillerød3-1
05/08/25ASkibsby-Hojene Vs AF0-3
02/08/25HAF Vs Lyngby0-2
25/07/25AHB Koge Vs AF2-1
19/07/25AAC Horsens Vs AF0-0
03/09/24AVSK Ă…rhus Vs AF2-1
07/08/24AVatanspor Vs AF0-2

AalborgAalborg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/08/25HAAL Vs Hvidovre4-0
19/08/25AEsbjerg Vs AAL1-0
15/08/25HAAL Vs AC Horsens0-2
10/08/25AHB Koge Vs AAL0-2
06/08/25AVendsyssel FF Vs AAL1-1
01/08/25HAAL Vs Hobro1-1
26/07/25AHillerød Vs AAL2-2
19/07/25AKolding IF Vs AAL1-0
24/05/25ALyngby Vs AAL3-1
18/05/25HAAL Vs Silkeborg2-3

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDD1.20
HomeLWD1.33
AwayDLWLD1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%29%
AVG goals2.703.332.43
Over 1.5 %90%100%86%
Over 2.5 %60%67%57%
Over 3.5 %30%67%14%
Scored1.401.671.29
Conceded1.301.671.14
BTTS50%67%43%
Clean Sheet30%0%43%
Corners---
Cards---
Aalborg
Aalborg
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLW1.04
HomeLLDLW1.00
AwayLDDWL1.07
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%26%26%
AVG goals3.143.223.07
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %62%70%56%
Over 3.5 %48%48%48%
Scored1.401.351.44
Conceded1.741.871.63
BTTS50%52%48%
Clean Sheet18%22%15%
Corners10.5010.6910.31
Cards3.503.313.69

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LyngbyLyngby3260
56%
1.9
6936+33
3.3
91%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3552.21.1
-
2AC HorsensAC Horsens3254
47%
1.7
4227+15
2.2
56%
41%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.30.8
-
3EsbjergEsbjerg3252
47%
1.6
4543+2
2.8
75%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.41.3
-
4HillerødHillerød3250
41%
1.6
4243-1
2.7
81%
59%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.3
-
5HvidovreHvidovre3246
34%
1.4
4339+4
2.6
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.2
-
6AalborgAalborg3246
38%
1.4
5047+3
3.0
78%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2261.61.5
-
7Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad3244
34%
1.4
5237+15
2.8
72%
53%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.2
-
8HobroHobro3242
34%
1.3
4043-3
2.6
72%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.21.3
-
9HB KogeHB Koge3240
34%
1.2
4248-6
2.8
81%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.31.5
-
10Kolding IFKolding IF3238
31%
1.2
3740-3
2.4
72%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.21.2
-
11B 93B 933237
31%
1.2
4458-14
3.2
81%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
12MiddelfartMiddelfart3215
9%
0.5
3277-45
3.4
78%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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