Aarhus Fremad is expected to come out on top in this match, with the model predicting a home win. The recent form of the teams suggests a closely contested match, as Aarhus Fremad comes off a win and Aalborg comes off a draw. Aarhus Fremad has been scoring at an average rate of 1.85 goals at home, while conceding 0.85 goals. Aalborg, on the other hand, has scored 0.92 goals away from home and conceded 1.67 goals.
The model predicts a 3.0 expected total goals, with the most likely score being 1-1 at a probability of 11.1%. The most likely total goals is 2. Aarhus Fremad has a 58% chance of winning, a 24% chance of drawing, and an 18% chance of losing to Aalborg.
The model's selection is the home win, with Aarhus Fremad also being the team to score over 1.5 goals at a probability of 80.9%. The edge percentage for this selection is 2%.
Results analysis
Aarhus Fremad's winning streak came to an end as they fell to a 1-2 defeat at home to Aalborg, handing the away side their first win in five matches. The win extends Aalborg's run of draws and losses. Aalborg's victory was a major upset, as Aarhus Fremad were pre-match favourites with a 58% chance of winning. The model's selection, Aarhus Fremad win, was incorrect. The model had suggested Over 1.5 goals, which hit, and had a probability of 80.9%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aarhus Fremad win✗ Miss
58.4%
Avg Implied 40.7% · @ 2.26
Edge
+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.34
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Draw✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.49
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.57
Dafabet
3.55
Aalborg win✓ Hit
18.1%
Avg Implied 32.9% · @ 2.80
Edge
-14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.93
Bet365
2.90
BetVictor
2.88
1xBet
2.87
Superbet
2.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aarhus Fremad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.13
2.07
0.93
1.73
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.73
1.15
1.69
0.92
1.77
1.38
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.00
4.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aalborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.50
1.88
1.31
1.57
1.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.60
1.44
1.92
1.15
1.25
1.75
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.50
2.50
1.50
3.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.9%
@ 1.17+1.8%
Under 1.5
19.1%
@ 4.42-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Under
Pinnacle
4.86
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.4%
@ 1.60-0.9%
Under 2.5
42.6%
@ 2.24+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.33
BetVictor
2.30
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.0%
@ 2.47-2.7%
Under 3.5
65.0%
@ 1.49+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.50
Betano
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.0%
@ 1.50-5.5%
No
44.0%
@ 2.39+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Betano
1.50
No
BetVictor
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Superbet
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Betano
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%@ 6.41+4.2%
2-1
10.0%@ 8.28+4.6%
2-0
9.8%@ 11.78+6.0%
1-0
8.9%@ 9.43+4.2%
3-1
6.5%@ 14.66+3.5%
3-0
6.4%@ 21.10+4.3%
0-0
6.1%@ 12.37+2.5%
1-2 ✓
5.2%@ 9.17+0.3%
Aarhus Fremad goals ↓
Aalborg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.1%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
1
8.9%
11%
5.2%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.8%
10.0%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.4%
6.5%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.1%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aarhus Fremad goals (down), columns = Aalborg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Aarhus Fremad is 0.17 points better than Aalborg in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Aarhus Fremad is 0.33 goals better than Aalborg in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Aarhus Fremad is 0.33 goals better than Aalborg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aarhus Fremad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.87
0.40
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.54
0.69
0.38
0.92
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aalborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.69
0.38
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.68
0.85
0.38
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aarhus Fremad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.20
0.53
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.62
1.00
0.54
0.85
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
2.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aalborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.83
1.19
0.94
1.07
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.76
1.08
0.77
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
0.75
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.9%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
+1.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aalborg · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Malthe Højholt33%
Mathias Jørgensen25%
John Iredale21%
Nicklas Helenius19%
Aaron Seydel17%
Kasper Jørgensen13%
Melker Widell11%
Mads Bomholt10%
Oliver Ross7%
Bjarne Pudel5%
Andres Jasson3%
Jubril Adedeji0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Lars Kramer0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent Müller0%
Kelvin John0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Mylian Jimenez0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oumar Diakhité31%
Bjarne Pudel29%
Mylian Jimenez26%
Kasper Davidsen22%
Melker Widell19%
Lars Kramer17%
Marc Nielsen17%
Andres Jasson16%
Kasper Jørgensen13%
Jubril Adedeji12%
Andreas Bruus10%
Oliver Ross10%
Travis Hernes8%
Isak Hansen Aarøen7%
Mads Bomholt7%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson6%
Kelvin John4%
Vincent Müller3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Nicklas Helenius0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Diego Caballo0%
Mathias Jørgensen0%
John Iredale0%
Elison Makolli0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicklas Helenius19%
Mathias Jørgensen16%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson12%
Melker Widell11%
Sebastian Otoa10%
Andres Jasson10%
Kasper Jørgensen7%
Bjarne Pudel5%
Kelvin John4%
Mylian Jimenez4%
Kasper Davidsen4%
Lars Kramer3%
Oliver Ross3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Jubril Adedeji0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent Müller0%
John Iredale0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Mads Bomholt0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Jørgensen31%
Kasper Jørgensen17%
Melker Widell15%
Jubril Adedeji12%
John Iredale7%
Oliver Ross7%
Mylian Jimenez4%
Andres Jasson3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Nicklas Helenius0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Lars Kramer0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent Müller0%
Kelvin John0%
Bjarne Pudel0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson0%
Mads Bomholt0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Aarhus Fremad's squad is €7m less valuable than Aalborg's (€3m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Aarhus Fremad's attack is €1m less valuable than Aalborg's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Aarhus Fremad and Aalborg have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Aarhus Fremad's defence is €5m less valuable than Aalborg's (€1m vs €6m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vejle
Hvidovre
Hobro
FC Fredericia
Vendsyssel FF
AB Copenhagen
Kolding IF
Hillerød
Esbjerg
HB Koge