Aarhus Fremad’s recent unbeaten run and a 0-0 draw at home suggest a solid defensive base, while Esbjerg’s away form has dipped after a 0-2 loss. The model favours a home win, with a 54% chance, a 24% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of an away win. The expected total is 3.2 goals, centring on a 3-goal outcome with a 22% probability. The most likely exact score is 1-1, occurring with a 10.8% chance. Home side Aarhus Fremad averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.83 conceded against similar opposition; Esbjerg averages 1.71 scored and 1.79 conceded on the road. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Under 6.5 (95.5%), Home +2 handicap (90.9%), Under 5.5 (89.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (86.3%) and Home under 3.5 goals (85.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aarhus Fremad win
54.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg win
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aarhus Fremad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.97
1.71
0.86
1.31
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.19
1.04
1.25
0.83
1.14
1.21
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
0.50
4.50
1.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esbjerg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.50
1.50
1.29
1.88
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.40
1.36
0.91
1.71
1.79
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
1.33
2.00
2.00
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.8%
Under 1.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.0%
Under 2.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.7%
Under 3.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.1%
1-0
7.1%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
3-0
5.4%
Aarhus Fremad goals ↓
Esbjerg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
4.0%
3.0%
1.2%
0.4%
1
7.1%
11%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.1%
9.8%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3
5.4%
6.5%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.7%
3.2%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aarhus Fremad goals (down), columns = Esbjerg goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Aarhus Fremad is 0.83 points better than Esbjerg in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Aarhus Fremad is 0.17 goals worse than Esbjerg in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Aarhus Fremad is 1.33 goals better than Esbjerg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aarhus Fremad or Draw
78.1%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Aarhus Fremad + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad or Esbjerg
76.4%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Aarhus Fremad + Esbjerg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Esbjerg
45.5%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
22%
covers Draw + Esbjerg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5
Over
86.3%
Under
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 3.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5
Over
70.2%
Under
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aarhus Fremad, so a minus line means Aarhus Fremad give that many goals of a start and Esbjerg receive them. At -1, Aarhus Fremad must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aarhus Fremad win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aarhus Fremad)
Aarhus Fremad -2
15.9%
Draw -2
16.8%
Esbjerg +2
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aarhus Fremad)
Aarhus Fremad -1
32.8%
Draw -1
21.7%
Esbjerg +1
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aarhus Fremad)
Aarhus Fremad +1
78.1%
Draw +1
12.8%
Esbjerg -1
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aarhus Fremad)
Aarhus Fremad +2
90.9%
Draw +2
6.2%
Esbjerg -2
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aarhus Fremad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.57
0.36
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.42
0.33
0.33
0.57
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.25
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esbjerg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.64
0.71
1.06
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.48
0.55
0.45
0.93
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aarhus Fremad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.14
0.50
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.62
0.92
0.50
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.25
2.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esbjerg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
0.86
0.57
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.92
0.82
0.45
0.79
1.29
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Aarhus Fremad's squad is €4m less valuable than Esbjerg's (€3m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Aarhus Fremad's attack is €1m less valuable than Esbjerg's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Aarhus Fremad and Esbjerg have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Aarhus Fremad's defence is €2m less valuable than Esbjerg's (€1m vs €3m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vejle
Hvidovre
Hobro
FC Fredericia
Vendsyssel FF
Aalborg
AB Copenhagen
Kolding IF
Hillerød
HB Koge