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Aarhus Fremad vs HB Koge Result & Analysis

Date: 23/11/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 2-2
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
Vs
56%
23%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
HB Koge
HB Koge
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aarhus Fremad winâś— Miss
56.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HB Koge winâś— Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-661W31W30W12L11D12L33D01L00D02LA·SIL03/09A·B 912/09H·HOB20/09H·HOB24/09A·ESB28/09H·B 904/10A·LYN19/10H·ESB25/10H·HVI01/11A·HOB07/11
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.761.291.671.221.831.33
vs Stronger (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Similar (18)1.721.281.671.221.781.33
vs Weaker (2)2.501.00--2.501.00
Clean sheet %24% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L23L10W04L02L12L21W13L32W11DA·HIL23/08A·ESB01/09H·AC 13/09A·LYN21/09H·HVI27/09A·AAL02/10H·KOL17/10A·HVI23/10A·AC 31/10H·HIL07/11
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.771.071.271.332.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.251.891.141.361.362.43
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.5%
Under 2.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.2%
Under 3.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.4%
No
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.5%
1-0
7.5%
3-1
6.6%
3-0
5.7%
2-2 âś“
5.7%
1-2
5.6%
Aarhus Fremad goals ↓
HB Koge goals →
01234
05.1%3.8%2.8%1.1%0.3%
17.5%11%5.6%2.2%0.6%
28.5%9.8%5.7%2.2%0.6%
35.7%6.6%3.8%1.5%0.4%
42.9%3.4%1.9%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aarhus Fremad goals (down), columns = HB Koge goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lyngby
1.88
AC Horsens
1.69
Esbjerg
1.62
Hillerød
1.56
Aalborg
1.44
Hvidovre
1.44
Aarhus Fremad
1.38
Hobro
1.31
HB Koge
1.25
Kolding IF
1.19
B 93
1.16
Middelfart
0.47
Aarhus Fremad is 0.12 points better than HB Koge in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lyngby
2.16
Aarhus Fremad
1.62
Aalborg
1.56
Esbjerg
1.41
B 93
1.38
Hvidovre
1.34
Hillerød
1.31
AC Horsens
1.31
HB Koge
1.31
Hobro
1.25
Kolding IF
1.16
Middelfart
1.00
Aarhus Fremad is 0.31 goals better than HB Koge in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
AC Horsens
0.84
Lyngby
1.12
Aarhus Fremad
1.16
Hvidovre
1.22
Kolding IF
1.25
Hobro
1.34
Hillerød
1.34
Esbjerg
1.34
Aalborg
1.47
HB Koge
1.50
B 93
1.81
Middelfart
2.41
Aarhus Fremad is 0.34 goals better than HB Koge in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W11D20W11D00D00D11D01L00D00DA·SIL03/09A·B 912/09H·HOB20/09H·HOB24/09A·ESB28/09H·B 904/10A·LYN19/10H·ESB25/10H·HVI01/11A·HOB07/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.950.571.000.440.920.67
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (18)0.940.561.000.440.890.67
vs Weaker (2)1.500.50--1.500.50
Clean sheet %48% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HB KogeHB Koge

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L02L00D02L00D00D10W10W12L00DA·HIL23/08A·ESB01/09H·AC 13/09A·LYN21/09H·HVI27/09A·AAL02/10H·KOL17/10A·HVI23/10A·AC 31/10H·HIL07/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.870.400.330.201.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.320.930.430.360.211.50
vs Weaker (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W20W10W01L11D12L22D00D00D02LA·SIL03/09A·B 912/09H·HOB20/09H·HOB24/09A·ESB28/09H·B 904/10A·LYN19/10H·ESB25/10H·HVI01/11A·HOB07/11
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.810.710.670.780.920.67
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (18)0.780.720.670.780.890.67
vs Weaker (2)1.000.50--1.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HB KogeHB Koge

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W10W02L02L12L11D03L20W11DA·HIL23/08A·ESB01/09H·AC 13/09A·LYN21/09H·HVI27/09A·AAL02/10H·KOL17/10A·HVI23/10A·AC 31/10H·HIL07/11
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.900.670.931.130.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.930.960.711.001.140.93
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.6%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
AAL (24)
€10m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
Aarhus Fremad's squad is €2m less valuable than HB Koge's (€3m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€4m
LYN (5)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
Aarhus Fremad and HB Koge have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (8)
€5m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
Aarhus Fremad and HB Koge have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
Aarhus Fremad's defence is €1m less valuable than HB Koge's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
AF wins
0
Draws
1
HK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aarhus Fremad vs HB Koge · H/A from AF
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/25AHB Koge Vs AF2-1

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/11/25AHobro Vs AF2-0
01/11/25HAF Vs Hvidovre0-0
25/10/25HAF Vs Esbjerg0-1
19/10/25ALyngby Vs AF3-3
04/10/25HAF Vs B 931-2
28/09/25AEsbjerg Vs AF1-1
24/09/25HAF Vs Hobro1-2
20/09/25HAF Vs Hobro3-0
12/09/25AB 93 Vs AF1-3
03/09/25ASilkeborg KFUM Vs AF1-6

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/11/25HHK Vs Hillerød1-1
31/10/25AAC Horsens Vs HK2-3
23/10/25AHvidovre Vs HK3-1
17/10/25HHK Vs Kolding IF2-1
02/10/25AAalborg Vs HK2-1
27/09/25HHK Vs Hvidovre0-2
21/09/25ALyngby Vs HK4-0
13/09/25HHK Vs AC Horsens1-0
01/09/25AEsbjerg Vs HK3-2
23/08/25AHillerød Vs HK3-1

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDL1.29
HomeWLLLD1.22
AwayWWDDL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%33%33%
AVG goals3.052.893.17
Over 1.5 %86%78%92%
Over 2.5 %62%67%58%
Over 3.5 %33%33%33%
Scored1.761.671.83
Conceded1.291.221.33
BTTS57%56%58%
Clean Sheet24%22%25%
Corners---
Cards---
HB Koge
HB Koge
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD1.16
HomeLWLWD1.21
AwayLLLLW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals3.062.713.38
Over 1.5 %86%79%92%
Over 2.5 %54%38%69%
Over 3.5 %34%21%46%
Scored1.301.041.54
Conceded1.761.671.85
BTTS56%38%73%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LyngbyLyngby3260
56%
1.9
6936+33
3.3
91%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3552.21.1
-
2AC HorsensAC Horsens3254
47%
1.7
4227+15
2.2
56%
41%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.30.8
-
3EsbjergEsbjerg3252
47%
1.6
4543+2
2.8
75%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.41.3
-
4HillerødHillerød3250
41%
1.6
4243-1
2.7
81%
59%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.3
-
5HvidovreHvidovre3246
34%
1.4
4339+4
2.6
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.2
-
6AalborgAalborg3246
38%
1.4
5047+3
3.0
78%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2261.61.5
-
7Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad3244
34%
1.4
5237+15
2.8
72%
53%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.2
-
8HobroHobro3242
34%
1.3
4043-3
2.6
72%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.21.3
-
9HB KogeHB Koge3240
34%
1.2
4248-6
2.8
81%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.31.5
-
10Kolding IFKolding IF3238
31%
1.2
3740-3
2.4
72%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.21.2
-
11B 93B 933237
31%
1.2
4458-14
3.2
81%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
12MiddelfartMiddelfart3215
9%
0.5
3277-45
3.4
78%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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