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Aarhus Fremad vs HB Koge Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 3-1
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
Vs
57%
24%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
HB Koge
HB Koge
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Aarhus Fremad are expected to win this match, with a predicted scoreline of 1-1 being the single most likely outcome, though the total number of goals is expected to be around 2.9. The home side has been scoring an average of 1.69 goals at home, but conceding 0.92 goals, particularly against similar opponents. Meanwhile, HB Koge has been scoring 1.0 goal away from home, but conceding 1.83 goals, also against similar opponents. The model's selection is the home win, with a 57% chance of success.

The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5 with an 80.2% probability, which has a 3% edge. Aarhus Fremad have a 57% chance of winning, a 24% chance of drawing, and a 19% chance of losing. The model's selection, home win, has a 57% chance of success.

Results analysis

Aarhus Fremad's win extends their run, having now come off a win after a previous defeat. The final score was 3-1 in their favour, securing a home win. The model correctly predicted the home win, its pre-match probability standing at 57%. The model's selection, the home win, was the favourite, with a higher probability than the away win at 19% and draw at 24%. The model's selection hit, as did the 'Over 1.5' suggested pick, with a probability of 80.2%, while the 'most likely total goals' of 2 was missed.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aarhus Fremad win✓ Hit
56.8%
Avg Implied 54.7% · @ 1.68
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
Dafabet
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Bet365
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.77
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.96
Unibet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.88
1xBet
3.88
Betano
3.80
HB Koge win✗ Miss
19.0%
Avg Implied 20.9% · @ 4.40
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.51
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W01L10W00D30W50W22D21W12L40WH·MID22/04H·HOB26/04A·MID01/05H·HB 09/05A·HOB14/05H·AAL22/05A·B 930/05A·HOB26/07H·AAL31/07A·RIN04/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.072.000.931.871.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.691.151.620.921.771.38
vs Weaker (4)3.500.504.501.002.500.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W11D32W00D40W01L01L03L02L01LA·HOB22/04H·AAL26/04H·B 901/05A·AAR09/05A·MID16/05H·HOB24/05A·AAL30/05A·FC 25/07H·VEJ31/07A·BRØ04/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.531.141.211.191.81
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (29)1.211.481.141.211.271.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
@ 1.20+2.9%
Under 1.5
19.8%
@ 4.07-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.18
BetVictor
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.2%
@ 1.68+0.8%
Under 2.5
43.8%
@ 2.09-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Under
Pinnacle
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
888Sport
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.9%
@ 2.66-0.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
@ 1.42+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.70
Betfair
2.70
Betano
2.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.8%
@ 1.65-0.3%
No
44.2%
@ 2.10+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
No
Betfair
2.20
William Hil
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Bet365
2.10
BetVictor
2.10

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%@ 6.72+4.9%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.25+3.9%
2-0
9.7%@ 8.12+4.3%
1-0
9.1%@ 7.38+3.1%
0-0
6.3%@ 11.60+2.6%
3-1 ✓
6.3%@ 11.37+2.5%
3-0
6.1%@ 12.43+2.6%
1-2
5.4%@ 12.67+1.9%
Aarhus Fremad goals ↓
HB Koge goals →
01234
06.3%4.4%2.8%1.0%0.2%
19.1%11%5.4%1.8%0.5%
29.7%9.9%5.1%1.8%0.5%
36.1%6.3%3.2%1.1%0.3%
42.9%3.0%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aarhus Fremad goals (down), columns = HB Koge goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Aarhus Fremad is 1.17 points better than HB Koge in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Aarhus Fremad is 0.67 goals better than HB Koge in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Aarhus Fremad is 1.17 goals better than HB Koge in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W01L00D00D10W10W21W21W01L30WH·MID22/04H·HOB26/04A·MID01/05H·HB 09/05A·HOB14/05H·AAL22/05A·B 930/05A·HOB26/07H·AAL31/07A·RIN04/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.500.870.401.000.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.810.540.690.380.920.69
vs Weaker (4)1.750.252.000.501.500.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HB KogeHB Koge

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D12L00D30W01L01L00D01L01LA·HOB22/04H·AAL26/04H·B 901/05A·AAR09/05A·MID16/05H·HOB24/05A·AAL30/05A·FC 25/07H·VEJ31/07A·BRØ04/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.430.430.560.88
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (29)0.520.690.430.430.600.93
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W00D10W00D20W40W01L00D11D10WH·MID22/04H·HOB26/04A·MID01/05H·HB 09/05A·HOB14/05H·AAL22/05A·B 930/05A·HOB26/07H·AAL31/07A·RIN04/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.571.130.530.870.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.880.620.920.540.850.69
vs Weaker (4)1.750.252.500.501.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HB KogeHB Koge

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D20W00D10W00D00D03L01L00DA·HOB22/04H·AAL26/04H·B 901/05A·AAR09/05A·MID16/05H·HOB24/05A·AAL30/05A·FC 25/07H·VEJ31/07A·BRØ04/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.870.710.790.620.94
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (29)0.690.790.710.790.670.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.2%1.20
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+2.9%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Aarhus Fremad's squad is €2m less valuable than HB Koge's (€3m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Aarhus Fremad and HB Koge have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Aarhus Fremad and HB Koge have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Aarhus Fremad's defence is €1m less valuable than HB Koge's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
AF wins
2
Draws
2
HK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aarhus Fremad vs HB Koge · H/A from AF
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HAF Vs HB Koge0-0
06/04/26AHB Koge Vs AF2-0
23/11/25HAF Vs HB Koge2-2
25/07/25AHB Koge Vs AF2-1

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/08/26ARingkøbing Vs AF0-4
31/07/26HAF Vs Aalborg1-2
26/07/26AHobro Vs AF1-2
30/05/26AB 93 Vs AF2-2
22/05/26HAF Vs Aalborg5-0
14/05/26AHobro Vs AF0-3
09/05/26HAF Vs HB Koge0-0
01/05/26AMiddelfart Vs AF0-1
26/04/26HAF Vs Hobro0-1
22/04/26HAF Vs Middelfart5-1

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/08/26ABrønshøj Vs HK1-0
31/07/26HHK Vs Vejle0-2
25/07/26AFC Fredericia Vs HK3-0
30/05/26AAalborg Vs HK1-0
24/05/26HHK Vs Hobro0-1
16/05/26AMiddelfart Vs HK0-4
09/05/26AAarhus Fremad Vs HK0-0
01/05/26HHK Vs B 933-2
26/04/26HHK Vs Aalborg1-1
22/04/26AHobro Vs HK1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLW1.48
HomeWLDWL1.44
AwayWWDWW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%39%41%
AVG goals2.923.002.86
Over 1.5 %78%72%82%
Over 2.5 %60%67%55%
Over 3.5 %38%44%32%
Scored1.801.941.68
Conceded1.121.061.18
BTTS52%56%50%
Clean Sheet30%28%32%
Corners---
Cards---
HB Koge
HB Koge
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.20
HomeWDWLL1.42
AwayDWLLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%42%23%
AVG goals2.782.463.08
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %52%33%69%
Over 3.5 %28%12%42%
Scored1.221.171.27
Conceded1.561.291.81
BTTS54%42%65%
Clean Sheet16%21%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VejleVejle614
67%
2.3
1610+6
4.3
83%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3242.71.7
-
2HvidovreHvidovre614
67%
2.3
105+5
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.70.8
-
3HobroHobro612
67%
2.0
98+1
2.8
83%
83%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.51.3
-
4FC FredericiaFC Fredericia69
33%
1.5
94+5
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
2331.50.7
-
5Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.20.8
-
6Vendsyssel FFVendsyssel FF68
33%
1.3
78-1
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.3
-
7AalborgAalborg68
33%
1.3
57-2
2.0
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2260.81.2
-
8AB CopenhagenAB Copenhagen66
17%
1.0
87+1
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.2
-
9Kolding IFKolding IF66
17%
1.0
89-1
2.8
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.31.5
-
10HillerødHillerød64
17%
0.7
1012-2
3.7
67%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.72.0
-
11EsbjergEsbjerg64
17%
0.7
813-5
3.5
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.32.2
-
12HB KogeHB Koge62
0%
0.3
312-9
2.5
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.52.0
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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