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Aarhus Fremad vs Hobro Prediction & Stats

Date: 21/11/2026
Time: 13:00
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
Vs
43%
28%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hobro
Hobro
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Aarhus Fremad are favoured to win, with a 43% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of Hobro taking the victory. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total of 2 goals (26% probability). The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4% chance.

Aarhus Fremad, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.25 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. Hobro, on the road, average 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded versus similar teams. The home side’s recent unbeaten run (DWDDW) and a 0-0 draw against Vejle contrast with Hobro’s recent 1-3 loss to Hillerød.

The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 5.5 (94.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.6%), Home +2 handicap (88.0%) and Under 4.5 (86.9%). Each selection is presented with its probability, and no other outcomes are assigned a win chance.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aarhus Fremad win
43.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hobro win
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W22D21W12L40W31W11D00D10W00DH·AAL22/05A·B 930/05A·HOB26/07H·AAL31/07A·RIN04/08H·HB 08/08A·HIL15/08A·FC 21/08A·SGI25/08H·VEJ30/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.971.710.861.311.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.191.041.250.831.141.21
vs Weaker (4)3.500.504.501.002.500.00
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L10W32W12L21W04L10W21W21W13LH·AAR14/05A·HB 24/05H·MID30/05H·AAR26/07A·VEN02/08H·VEN05/08H·AB 08/08A·ESB15/08H·AAL21/08A·HIL30/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.431.191.751.641.07
vs Stronger (1)1.004.001.004.00--
vs Similar (23)1.221.391.171.501.271.27
vs Weaker (6)2.171.171.332.003.000.33
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.6%
Under 2.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.2%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.1%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
5.3%
Aarhus Fremad goals ↓
Hobro goals →
01234
08.2%7.0%4.8%1.9%0.5%
19.2%13%7.1%2.8%0.8%
27.8%9.1%5.3%2.1%0.6%
33.9%4.5%2.6%1.0%0.3%
41.4%1.7%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aarhus Fremad goals (down), columns = Hobro goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Aarhus Fremad is 0.50 points worse than Hobro in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Aarhus Fremad is 0.33 goals worse than Hobro in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Aarhus Fremad is 0.50 goals better than Hobro in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aarhus Fremad or Draw
71.5%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Aarhus Fremad + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad or Hobro
71.9%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Aarhus Fremad + Hobro
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hobro
56.6%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Draw + Hobro
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5
Over
77.5%
Under
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5
Over
43.9%
Under
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 0.5
Over
68.9%
Under
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Aarhus Fremad, so a minus line means Aarhus Fremad give that many goals of a start and Hobro receive them. At -1, Aarhus Fremad must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aarhus Fremad win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aarhus Fremad)
Aarhus Fremad -2
8.6%
Draw -2
13.4%
Hobro +2
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aarhus Fremad)
Aarhus Fremad -1
22.0%
Draw -1
21.4%
Hobro +1
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aarhus Fremad)
Aarhus Fremad +1
71.5%
Draw +1
16.5%
Hobro -1
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aarhus Fremad)
Aarhus Fremad +2
88.0%
Draw +2
8.2%
Hobro -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W21W01L30W20W10W00D00D00DH·AAL22/05A·B 930/05A·HOB26/07H·AAL31/07A·RIN04/08H·HB 08/08A·HIL15/08A·FC 21/08A·SGI25/08H·VEJ30/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.400.570.360.690.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.460.420.330.330.570.50
vs Weaker (4)1.750.252.000.501.500.00
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W30W12L21W03L00D00D10W02LH·AAR14/05A·HB 24/05H·MID30/05H·AAR26/07A·VEN02/08H·VEN05/08H·AB 08/08A·ESB15/08H·AAL21/08A·HIL30/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.730.620.880.710.57
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (23)0.480.740.580.830.360.64
vs Weaker (6)1.500.671.001.002.000.33
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W01L00D11D10W11D01L00D10W00DH·AAL22/05A·B 930/05A·HOB26/07H·AAL31/07A·RIN04/08H·HB 08/08A·HIL15/08A·FC 21/08A·SGI25/08H·VEJ30/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.571.140.500.620.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.730.620.920.500.570.71
vs Weaker (4)1.750.252.500.501.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D02L00D00D01L10W21W11D11DH·AAR14/05A·HB 24/05H·MID30/05H·AAR26/07A·VEN02/08H·VEN05/08H·AB 08/08A·ESB15/08H·AAL21/08A·HIL30/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.560.880.930.50
vs Stronger (1)1.003.001.003.00--
vs Similar (23)0.740.650.580.670.910.64
vs Weaker (6)0.670.500.331.001.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Under 6.598.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.9%-------
Under 5.594.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals93.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals88.6%-------
Home +2 handicap88.0%-------
Under 4.586.9%-------
Home under 2.5 goals81.1%-------
Away +2 handicap78.0%-------
Home over 0.5 goals77.5%-------
Over 1.575.6%-------
Under 3.572.3%-------
Home or Away71.9%-------
Home or Draw71.5%-------
Home +1 handicap71.5%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Aarhus Fremad's squad is €4m less valuable than Hobro's (€3m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Aarhus Fremad and Hobro have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Aarhus Fremad and Hobro have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Aarhus Fremad's defence is €2m less valuable than Hobro's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
AF wins
0
Draws
3
HOB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aarhus Fremad vs Hobro · H/A from AF
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26AHobro Vs AF1-2
14/05/26AHobro Vs AF0-3
26/04/26HAF Vs Hobro0-1
07/11/25AHobro Vs AF2-0
24/09/25HAF Vs Hobro1-2
20/09/25HAF Vs Hobro3-0

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HAF Vs Vejle0-0
25/08/26ASGI Vs AF0-1
21/08/26AFC Fredericia Vs AF0-0
15/08/26AHillerød Vs AF1-1
08/08/26HAF Vs HB Koge3-1
04/08/26ARingkøbing Vs AF0-4
31/07/26HAF Vs Aalborg1-2
26/07/26AHobro Vs AF1-2
30/05/26AB 93 Vs AF2-2
22/05/26HAF Vs Aalborg5-0

HobroHobro

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AHillerød Vs HOB3-1
21/08/26HHOB Vs Aalborg2-1
15/08/26AEsbjerg Vs HOB1-2
08/08/26HHOB Vs AB Copenhagen1-0
05/08/26HHOB Vs Vendsyssel FF0-4
02/08/26AVendsyssel FF Vs HOB1-2
26/07/26HHOB Vs Aarhus Fremad1-2
30/05/26HHOB Vs Middelfart3-2
24/05/26AHB Koge Vs HOB0-1
14/05/26HHOB Vs Aarhus Fremad0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWD1.51
HomeDWLWD1.50
AwayWWDDW1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%40%40%
AVG goals2.762.902.64
Over 1.5 %73%70%76%
Over 2.5 %56%65%48%
Over 3.5 %36%45%28%
Scored1.711.901.56
Conceded1.041.001.08
BTTS51%55%48%
Clean Sheet33%30%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Hobro
Hobro
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.48
HomeWLLWW1.21
AwayDWWWL1.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%33%50%
AVG goals2.782.792.77
Over 1.5 %78%71%85%
Over 2.5 %52%58%46%
Over 3.5 %26%33%19%
Scored1.341.171.50
Conceded1.441.621.27
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet30%25%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VejleVejle614
67%
2.3
1610+6
4.3
83%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3242.71.7
-
2HvidovreHvidovre614
67%
2.3
105+5
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.70.8
-
3HobroHobro612
67%
2.0
98+1
2.8
83%
83%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.51.3
-
4FC FredericiaFC Fredericia69
33%
1.5
94+5
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
2331.50.7
-
5Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.20.8
-
6Vendsyssel FFVendsyssel FF68
33%
1.3
78-1
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.3
-
7AalborgAalborg68
33%
1.3
57-2
2.0
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2260.81.2
-
8AB CopenhagenAB Copenhagen66
17%
1.0
87+1
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.2
-
9Kolding IFKolding IF66
17%
1.0
89-1
2.8
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.31.5
-
10HillerødHillerød64
17%
0.7
1012-2
3.7
67%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.72.0
-
11EsbjergEsbjerg64
17%
0.7
813-5
3.5
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.32.2
-
12HB KogeHB Koge62
0%
0.3
312-9
2.5
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.52.0
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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