AB Copenhagen’s recent home form is a mixed bag, and they are coming off a 1-2 defeat to Kolding IF, while Aarhus Fremad arrive unbeaten in their last five, having kept a clean sheet in a 0-0 draw with Vejle. The model therefore sees the away side as the clear favourite, giving a 76% chance of an away win and a 7% chance of a home win, with draws at 17%. The most likely outcome is an away victory, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-2, which the model assigns a 13.8% probability. The expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total of 2 goals carries a 23% chance. AB Copenhagen averages one goal scored and one conceded at home against stronger opposition, while Aarhus Fremad averages 2.5 goals scored and none conceded away against weaker teams. The model’s selections reinforce the dominance of the away side: Home under 3.5 goals99.6%, Under 7.598.6%, Away +2 handicap98.1%, Home under 2.5 goals97.3%, Under 6.596.3%, Draw or Away93.0%, Away +1 handicap93.0%, and Away over 0.5 goals91.3%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AB Copenhagen win
7.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad win
76.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AB Copenhagen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.17
1.00
1.00
2.11
1.22
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
1.44
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.67
vs Similar (3)
3.33
0.33
-
-
3.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus Fremad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.97
1.71
0.86
1.31
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.19
1.04
1.25
0.83
1.14
1.21
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
0.50
4.50
1.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (AB Copenhagen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.9%
Under 1.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.3%
Under 2.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.9%
Under 3.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.8%
0-3
11.2%
0-1
10.6%
1-2
8.7%
1-1
7.9%
1-3
7.1%
0-4
6.8%
0-0
5.4%
AB Copenhagen goals ↓
Aarhus Fremad goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
11%
14%
11%
6.8%
1
2.2%
7.9%
8.7%
7.1%
4.3%
2
0.9%
2.3%
2.8%
2.3%
1.4%
3
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AB Copenhagen goals (down), columns = Aarhus Fremad goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
FC Fredericia
1.50
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Esbjerg
0.67
Hillerød
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
AB Copenhagen is 0.50 points worse than Aarhus Fremad in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hillerød
1.67
FC Fredericia
1.50
Hobro
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
AB Copenhagen is 0.17 goals better than Aarhus Fremad in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Hvidovre
0.83
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Aalborg
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
AB Copenhagen is 0.33 goals worse than Aarhus Fremad in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AB Copenhagen or Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied -
7%
17%
76%
covers AB Copenhagen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen or Aarhus Fremad
83.5%
Avg Implied -
7%
17%
76%
covers AB Copenhagen + Aarhus Fremad
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
93.0%
Avg Implied -
7%
17%
76%
covers Draw + Aarhus Fremad
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AB Copenhagen over/under 0.5
Over
47.0%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 1.5
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 2.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5
Over
91.3%
Under
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5
Over
69.9%
Under
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 3.5
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AB Copenhagen, so a minus line means AB Copenhagen give that many goals of a start and Aarhus Fremad receive them. At -1, AB Copenhagen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AB Copenhagen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AB Copenhagen)
AB Copenhagen -2
0.3%
Draw -2
1.5%
Aarhus Fremad +2
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (AB Copenhagen)
AB Copenhagen -1
1.9%
Draw -1
5.2%
Aarhus Fremad +1
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (AB Copenhagen)
AB Copenhagen +1
23.6%
Draw +1
21.9%
Aarhus Fremad -1
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (AB Copenhagen)
AB Copenhagen +2
45.5%
Draw +2
22.4%
Aarhus Fremad -2
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AB Copenhagen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
0.50
0.67
0.67
1.22
0.44
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
58% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus Fremad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.57
0.36
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.42
0.33
0.33
0.57
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.25
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (AB Copenhagen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AB Copenhagen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AB Copenhagen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.89
0.78
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.78
0.33
0.33
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.33
-
-
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
42% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aarhus Fremad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.14
0.50
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.62
0.92
0.50
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.25
2.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (AB Copenhagen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AB Copenhagen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
AB Copenhagen's squad is €2m less valuable than Aarhus Fremad's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
AB Copenhagen and Aarhus Fremad have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
AB Copenhagen's midfield is €1m less valuable than Aarhus Fremad's (€0m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
AB Copenhagen and Aarhus Fremad have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vejle
Hvidovre
Hobro
FC Fredericia
Vendsyssel FF
Aalborg
Kolding IF
Hillerød
Esbjerg
HB Koge