AB Copenhagen’s home form is weak against stronger opponents, averaging one goal scored and one conceded, while Esbjerg’s away record against weaker teams is explosive, six goals scored and none conceded. The model therefore rates an away win as the clear favourite, assigning 80 % to a victory for Esbjerg, 13 % to a draw and 7 % to a home win. The expected total is 3.8 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 20 %. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Esbjerg, with a 9.6 % probability. The model’s suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (98.9 %), Away +2 handicap (97.8 %), Under 7.5 (95.8 %), Away over 0.5 goals (94.9 %), Home under 2.5 goals (94.5 %), Draw or Away (92.9 %), Away +1 handicap (92.9 %) and Under 6.5 (90.6 %). AB Copenhagen’s recent draw against Hvidovre and Esbjerg’s 2-4 loss to Vejle add context, but the venue advantage and scoring disparity keep the model firmly on Esbjerg’s side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AB Copenhagen win
7.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
13.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg win
79.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AB Copenhagen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.17
1.00
1.00
2.11
1.22
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
1.44
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.67
vs Similar (3)
3.33
0.33
-
-
3.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esbjerg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.50
1.50
1.29
1.88
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.40
1.36
0.91
1.71
1.79
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
1.33
2.00
2.00
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (AB Copenhagen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.1%
Under 1.5
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
73.7%
Under 2.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 3.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
9.6%
0-3
9.6%
1-2
8.2%
1-3
8.2%
0-4
7.1%
1-4
6.1%
1-1
6.1%
0-1
5.9%
AB Copenhagen goals ↓
Esbjerg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.7%
5.9%
9.6%
9.6%
7.1%
1
1.3%
6.1%
8.2%
8.2%
6.1%
2
0.8%
2.4%
3.5%
3.5%
2.6%
3
0.2%
0.7%
1.0%
1.0%
0.7%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AB Copenhagen goals (down), columns = Esbjerg goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
AB Copenhagen is 0.33 points better than Esbjerg in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
AB Copenhagen and Esbjerg are level in goals scored per game (both 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
AB Copenhagen is 1.00 goals better than Esbjerg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AB Copenhagen or Draw
20.5%
Avg Implied -
7%
13%
80%
covers AB Copenhagen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen or Esbjerg
86.6%
Avg Implied -
7%
13%
80%
covers AB Copenhagen + Esbjerg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Esbjerg
92.9%
Avg Implied -
7%
13%
80%
covers Draw + Esbjerg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AB Copenhagen over/under 0.5
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 1.5
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 2.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5
Over
94.9%
Under
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5
Over
79.8%
Under
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5
Over
57.3%
Under
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 3.5
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AB Copenhagen, so a minus line means AB Copenhagen give that many goals of a start and Esbjerg receive them. At -1, AB Copenhagen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AB Copenhagen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AB Copenhagen)
AB Copenhagen -2
0.5%
Draw -2
1.7%
Esbjerg +2
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (AB Copenhagen)
AB Copenhagen -1
2.2%
Draw -1
4.9%
Esbjerg +1
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (AB Copenhagen)
AB Copenhagen +1
20.5%
Draw +1
18.4%
Esbjerg -1
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (AB Copenhagen)
AB Copenhagen +2
38.9%
Draw +2
20.8%
Esbjerg -2
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AB Copenhagen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
0.50
0.67
0.67
1.22
0.44
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
58% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esbjerg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.64
0.71
1.06
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.48
0.55
0.45
0.93
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (AB Copenhagen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AB Copenhagen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AB Copenhagen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.89
0.78
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.78
0.33
0.33
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.33
-
-
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
42% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esbjerg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
0.86
0.57
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.92
0.82
0.45
0.79
1.29
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (AB Copenhagen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AB Copenhagen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
AB Copenhagen's squad is €6m less valuable than Esbjerg's (€1m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
AB Copenhagen's attack is €2m less valuable than Esbjerg's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
AB Copenhagen's midfield is €2m less valuable than Esbjerg's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
AB Copenhagen's defence is €2m less valuable than Esbjerg's (€0m vs €3m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vejle
Hvidovre
Hobro
FC Fredericia
Aarhus Fremad
Vendsyssel FF
Aalborg
Kolding IF
Hillerød
HB Koge