Aberdeen face Celtic with the model favouring an away win, a 56% chance, followed by a 25% draw and a 19% home win. The expected total goals sit at 2.8, with the most likely total being two goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12% probability. Aberdeen, playing at home against a stronger side, averages one goal scored and 2.67 conceded, while Celtic, away against a weaker opponent, averages 3.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 6.5 (97.7%), Under 5.5 (93.8%), Away +2 handicap (93.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.1%), and Under 4.5 (85.4%). Aberdeen’s recent form shows a win after a 3-0 victory over Dundee, while Celtic come off a 1-4 loss to Lask Linz.
Results analysis
Aberdeen’s recent win over Dundee had the home side riding a strong form, yet the match ended in a 1-1 draw, denying the model’s favourite, an away win, which had a 56% pre-match probability. The model’s call was wrong, but its other selections proved accurate. Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.3%, Under 6.5 at 97.7%, Under 5.5 at 93.8%, Away +2 handicap at 93.2%, Home under 2.5 goals at 92.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 89.1%, and Under 4.5 at 85.4% all matched the outcome. The final score of 1-1 confirms the draw, with both teams scoring once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aberdeen win✗ Miss
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Celtic win✗ Miss
56.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aberdeen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.70
1.50
1.50
0.81
1.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
3.33
1.00
2.67
0.33
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.07
1.57
1.50
1.00
0.75
2.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.50
0.90
1.80
1.40
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.90
1.00
3.06
0.59
2.69
1.54
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (4)
1.25
2.75
2.00
3.00
1.00
2.67
vs Weaker (24)
3.33
0.67
3.27
0.33
3.44
1.22
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.0%
0-1
10.3%
0-2
10.3%
1-2
9.8%
0-0
7.4%
0-3
6.2%
1-3
5.9%
2-1
5.2%
Aberdeen goals ↓
Celtic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
10%
10%
6.2%
2.8%
1
5.0%
12%
9.8%
5.9%
2.7%
2
2.9%
5.2%
4.7%
2.8%
1.3%
3
0.9%
1.7%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aberdeen goals (down), columns = Celtic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Formartine United
3.00
Celtic
2.60
Musselburgh Athletic
2.40
Clydebank
2.40
Cowdenbeath
2.33
Jeanfield Swifts
2.33
ST Johnstone
2.25
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
Irvine Meadow
2.25
Aberdeen
2.20
Dundee
2.00
ST Mirren
2.00
Hibernian
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Dunfermline
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Montrose
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Cove Rangers
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Ayr Utd
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Hamilton Academical
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Banks O' Dee
2.00
Lochee United
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
Bo'ness United
2.00
Buckie Thistle
2.00
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Camelon Juniors
2.00
Sauchie Juniors
2.00
Turriff United
2.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.00
Brechin
1.75
Fraserburgh
1.75
Broxburn Athletic
1.75
Dundee North End
1.75
Rangers
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Culter
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Vale of Leithen
1.50
Dunbar United
1.50
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Dalkeith Thistle
1.50
Newtongrange Star
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Cupar Hearts
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Livingston
1.33
Forfar
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Queen's Park
1.25
Ross County
1.00
Partick
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Wick Academy
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Edinburgh City
0.50
Raith Rovers
0.50
Keith
0.50
Huntly
0.50
Motherwell
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Morton
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Spartans
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
Alloa Athletic
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.00
Preston Athletic
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
Creetown
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Gala Fairydean Rovers
0.00
Nairn County
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Tayport
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Deveronvale
0.00
Glenafton Athletic
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
East Stirlingshire
0.00
Beith
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
Edinburgh University
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
Dalbeattie Star
0.00
Haddington Athletic
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
Albion Rovers
0.00
BSC Glasgow
0.00
Rothes
0.00
Forres Mechanics
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Dunipace
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Pollok
0.00
Fort William
0.00
Aberdeen is 0.40 points worse than Celtic in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 2.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girvan
5.00
Peterhead
4.00
Stirling
4.00
Threave Rovers
4.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
3.67
Camelon Juniors
3.50
Ayr Utd
3.33
Lochee United
3.33
Celtic
3.00
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Clydebank
3.00
Cupar Hearts
3.00
Tynecastle
3.00
Fraserburgh
2.75
Sauchie Juniors
2.67
Rangers
2.50
Stenhousemuir
2.50
Montrose
2.50
Irvine Meadow
2.50
Culter
2.50
Aberdeen
2.40
Bo'ness United
2.33
Heart Of Midlothian
2.25
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
Ross County
2.00
Partick
2.00
Dundee
2.00
ST Mirren
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Cowdenbeath
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Berwick Rangers
2.00
Jeanfield Swifts
2.00
Formartine United
2.00
Dundee North End
2.00
Preston Athletic
2.00
Vale of Leithen
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Deveronvale
2.00
Glenafton Athletic
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
East Stirlingshire
2.00
Newtongrange Star
2.00
Rutherglen Glencairn
2.00
Huntly
2.00
Livingston
1.67
Dunfermline
1.67
Hamilton Academical
1.67
Musselburgh Athletic
1.60
Brechin
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Broxburn Athletic
1.50
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Hibernian
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.33
Buckie Thistle
1.33
Kilmarnock
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Edinburgh City
1.00
Spartans
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Banks O' Dee
1.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
1.00
Whitehill Welfare
1.00
Dunbar United
1.00
Creetown
1.00
Nairn County
1.00
Tayport
1.00
Turriff United
1.00
Beith
1.00
Edinburgh University
1.00
Dalbeattie Star
1.00
Haddington Athletic
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Albion Rovers
1.00
Forres Mechanics
1.00
Dunipace
1.00
Pollok
1.00
ST Johnstone
0.75
Raith Rovers
0.50
Keith
0.50
Dalkeith Thistle
0.50
Motherwell
0.00
Morton
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Gala Fairydean Rovers
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
BSC Glasgow
0.00
Rothes
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Fort William
0.00
Aberdeen is 0.60 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Formartine United
0.00
Ayr Utd
0.33
Celtic
0.40
Rangers
0.50
Camelon Juniors
0.50
Turriff United
0.50
Newtongrange Star
0.50
Aberdeen
0.60
Hibernian
0.67
Jeanfield Swifts
0.67
Banks O' Dee
0.67
Dundee North End
0.75
Clydebank
0.80
Motherwell
1.00
Dundee
1.00
ST Mirren
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Stirling
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Heart Of Midlothian
1.00
Hamilton Academical
1.00
Cumnock Juniors
1.00
Clachnacuddin
1.00
Musselburgh Athletic
1.00
Culter
1.00
Auchinleck Talbot
1.00
Gala Fairydean Rovers
1.00
Bonnyton Thistle
1.00
Carluke Rovers
1.00
Buckie Thistle
1.00
Dundonald Bluebell
1.00
Caledonian Braves
1.00
Sauchie Juniors
1.00
Penicuik Athletic
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
BSC Glasgow
1.00
Darvel
1.00
Blackburn United
1.00
ST Johnstone
1.25
Forfar
1.33
Dunfermline
1.33
Cowdenbeath
1.33
East Kilbride
1.33
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.33
Stranraer
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Edinburgh City
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Fraserburgh
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Airdrie United
1.67
Bo'ness United
1.67
Brechin
1.75
Ross County
2.00
Partick
2.00
Kilmarnock
2.00
Morton
2.00
Elgin
2.00
Montrose
2.00
Annan Athletic
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Queen's Park
2.00
Gretna 2008
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Bo'ness Athletic
2.00
Irvine Meadow
2.00
Dunbar United
2.00
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00
Keith
2.00
Stirling University
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
Golspie Sutherland
2.00
Dalbeattie Star
2.00
Dalkeith Thistle
2.00
Albion Rovers
2.00
Cupar Hearts
2.00
Forres Mechanics
2.00
Lothian Hutchison
2.00
Dunipace
2.00
Broxburn Athletic
2.25
Burntisland Shipyard
2.50
Huntly
2.50
Lochee United
2.67
Peterhead
3.00
Kelty Hearts
3.00
Raith Rovers
3.00
Alloa Athletic
3.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.00
Preston Athletic
3.00
Vale of Leithen
3.00
Creetown
3.00
Benburb
3.00
Nairn County
3.00
Tayport
3.00
Cumbernauld Colts
3.00
East Stirlingshire
3.00
Beith
3.00
Edinburgh University
3.00
Newton Stewart
3.00
Pollok
3.00
Dumbarton
3.50
Hawick Royal Albert
4.00
Deveronvale
4.00
Glenafton Athletic
4.00
Tranent Juniors
4.00
Invergordon
4.00
Haddington Athletic
4.00
Glasgow University
4.00
Easthouses Lily
4.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
4.00
Strathspey Thistle
6.00
Coldstream
6.00
St Andrews United
7.00
Rothes
8.00
Fort William
8.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
9.00
Aberdeen is 0.20 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 0.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aberdeen
For 7.8 · Against 5.0 · Total 12.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 8.2 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
For 7.9 · Against 2.9 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 9.0 · Total 18.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
11.0
12.7
3.6
4.0
3.2
22.8
24.2
21.6
vs Stronger (9)
11.2
10.2
12.2
4.1
5.5
3.0
21.2
20.8
21.8
vs Similar (20)
12.5
12.0
13.1
3.9
4.5
3.2
22.5
22.5
22.4
vs Weaker (21)
11.4
9.6
12.4
3.1
3.0
3.3
24.1
30.2
20.8
% over line
74%
68%
80%
58%
64%
52%
62%
63%
60%
% under line
26%
32%
20%
42%
36%
48%
38%
37%
40%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
12.8
11.1
2.5
2.2
2.9
18.3
18.0
18.5
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
14.0
7.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.5
8.0
11.0
vs Similar (10)
11.7
12.3
11.3
2.4
2.0
2.7
20.0
18.7
20.7
vs Weaker (38)
12.1
12.8
11.3
2.7
2.4
3.1
18.3
18.5
18.1
% over line
72%
71%
73%
36%
30%
43%
30%
24%
36%
% under line
28%
29%
27%
64%
70%
57%
70%
76%
64%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.8
Aberdeen
11.6
Ross County
11.5
Falkirk
11.4
Hibernian
11.3
Morton
11.2
Motherwell
11.2
Dundee Utd
11.1
Dumbarton
10.7
ST Johnstone
10.7
Kilmarnock
10.6
Dunfermline
10.6
Rangers
10.6
Airdrie United
10.6
Dundee
10.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.5
Stirling
10.4
Arbroath
10.3
Kelty Hearts
10.1
ST Mirren
10.1
Partick
10.1
Annan Athletic
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Cove Rangers
10.0
Clyde
9.8
Forfar
9.6
East Fife
9.6
Stenhousemuir
9.5
Cowdenbeath
9.4
Montrose
9.4
Stranraer
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.2
Elgin
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Livingston
8.9
Inverness CT
8.9
Peterhead
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ayr Utd
9.0
Peterhead
5.1
Morton
4.7
Aberdeen
4.6
Elgin
4.6
Forfar
4.6
Edinburgh City
4.5
Dundee Utd
4.4
Clyde
4.3
ST Mirren
4.3
Stirling
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Falkirk
4.1
Motherwell
4.1
Hibernian
4.1
Partick
4.0
Kilmarnock
4.0
Stranraer
4.0
ST Johnstone
4.0
Spartans
4.0
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Heart Of Midlothian
3.9
East Fife
3.9
Livingston
3.9
Dundee
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.7
Stenhousemuir
3.7
Dumbarton
3.7
Dunfermline
3.6
Montrose
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Celtic
3.5
Airdrie United
3.5
Inverness CT
3.4
Ross County
3.3
Kelty Hearts
3.3
Arbroath
3.2
Cove Rangers
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.8
Peterhead
24.6
Elgin
23.8
Edinburgh City
23.8
Livingston
23.5
Aberdeen
23.3
East Fife
23.1
Clyde
22.6
Morton
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.1
Motherwell
22.0
Spartans
22.0
Falkirk
21.9
Cowdenbeath
21.9
Stenhousemuir
21.8
Kilmarnock
21.7
ST Mirren
21.7
Stirling
21.5
Rangers
21.4
Heart Of Midlothian
21.4
Dundee Utd
21.0
Inverness CT
20.8
Ross County
20.7
Airdrie United
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Montrose
20.1
Partick
20.0
Dunfermline
20.0
Hibernian
19.9
Annan Athletic
19.8
Dundee
19.7
Arbroath
19.7
Kelty Hearts
19.7
Stranraer
19.6
Dumbarton
18.9
Celtic
18.4
Cove Rangers
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.3%
Under 9.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
66.0%
Under 3.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
63.3%
Under 21.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aberdeen or Draw✓ Hit
43.9%
Avg Implied -
19%
25%
56%
covers Aberdeen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen or Celtic✗ Miss
74.8%
Avg Implied -
19%
25%
56%
covers Aberdeen + Celtic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Celtic✓ Hit
81.3%
Avg Implied -
19%
25%
56%
covers Draw + Celtic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.6%
Under
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.5%
Under
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
53.7%
Under
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aberdeen, so a minus line means Aberdeen give that many goals of a start and Celtic receive them. At -1, Aberdeen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aberdeen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aberdeen)Actual: Celtic
Aberdeen -2
1.8%
Draw -2
5.0%
Celtic +2
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aberdeen)Actual: Celtic
Aberdeen -1
6.8%
Draw -1
12.0%
Celtic +1
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aberdeen)Actual: Aberdeen
Aberdeen +1
43.9%
Draw +1
23.4%
Celtic -1
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aberdeen)Actual: Aberdeen
Aberdeen +2
67.4%
Draw +2
17.6%
Celtic -2
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.79
0.79
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.79
0.50
0.83
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.57
1.47
0.35
1.31
0.85
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (24)
1.67
0.42
1.67
0.20
1.67
0.78
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.71
0.71
0.44
1.25
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
2.33
0.00
2.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.79
1.00
0.17
0.38
1.25
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.43
1.59
0.24
1.38
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.25
2.00
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (24)
1.67
0.25
1.60
0.13
1.78
0.44
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aberdeen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Nisbet28%
Pape Habib Gueye20%
Vicente Besuijen18%
Jamie McGrath16%
Topi Keskinen14%
Nicky Devlin13%
Leighton Clarkson12%
Ester Sokler10%
Alfie Dorrington8%
Shayden Morris8%
Oday Dabbagh8%
Ante Palaversa7%
Peter Ambrose7%
Jeppe Okkels6%
Graeme Shinnie3%
Sivert Heltne Nilsen0%
Dimitar Mitov0%
Angus MacDonald0%
James McGarry0%
Mats Knoester0%
Jack Mackenzie0%
Ross Doohan0%
Slobodan Rubežić0%
Kristers Tobers0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Luís Henriques de Barros Lopes0%
Alexander Jensen0%
Jack Milne0%
Dante Polvara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ante Palaversa37%
Slobodan Rubežić35%
Sivert Heltne Nilsen35%
Luís Henriques de Barros Lopes32%
Kristers Tobers30%
Gavin Molloy21%
Jack Mackenzie20%
Pape Habib Gueye20%
Graeme Shinnie19%
Dante Polvara18%
Jamie McGrath16%
James McGarry14%
Topi Keskinen14%
Nicky Devlin13%
Kevin Nisbet12%
Jack Milne11%
Ester Sokler10%
Vicente Besuijen9%
Leighton Clarkson9%
Dimitar Mitov8%
Alfie Dorrington8%
Ross Doohan7%
Peter Ambrose7%
Shayden Morris3%
Jeppe Okkels0%
Angus MacDonald0%
Mats Knoester0%
Oday Dabbagh0%
Alexander Jensen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath20%
Alexander Jensen20%
Shayden Morris16%
Kevin Nisbet16%
Luís Henriques de Barros Lopes11%
Pape Habib Gueye10%
Graeme Shinnie8%
Mats Knoester8%
Oday Dabbagh8%
Jeppe Okkels6%
Topi Keskinen6%
Ester Sokler5%
Jack Mackenzie4%
Sivert Heltne Nilsen4%
Ante Palaversa3%
Leighton Clarkson3%
Dimitar Mitov0%
Angus MacDonald0%
Nicky Devlin0%
James McGarry0%
Ross Doohan0%
Slobodan Rubežić0%
Kristers Tobers0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Vicente Besuijen0%
Alfie Dorrington0%
Jack Milne0%
Dante Polvara0%
Peter Ambrose0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kevin Nisbet22%
Mats Knoester15%
Pape Habib Gueye15%
Jamie McGrath12%
Luís Henriques de Barros Lopes11%
Kristers Tobers10%
Peter Ambrose7%
Nicky Devlin6%
Leighton Clarkson3%
Topi Keskinen3%
Shayden Morris3%
Ante Palaversa0%
Sivert Heltne Nilsen0%
Jeppe Okkels0%
Dimitar Mitov0%
Angus MacDonald0%
James McGarry0%
Jack Mackenzie0%
Graeme Shinnie0%
Ross Doohan0%
Slobodan Rubežić0%
Oday Dabbagh0%
Ester Sokler0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Vicente Besuijen0%
Alexander Jensen0%
Alfie Dorrington0%
Jack Milne0%
Dante Polvara0%
Celtic
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daizen Maeda40%
Maik Nawrocki33%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn31%
Jota31%
Adam Idah29%
Kyogo Furuhashi28%
Reo Hatate21%
Arne Engels20%
Callum McGregor18%
Luke McCowan17%
Yang Hyun-Jun14%
Johnny Kenny12%
Anthony Ralston11%
Alistair Johnston10%
Liam Scales9%
Jeffrey Schlupp7%
Paulo Bernardo6%
James Forrest4%
Auston Trusty3%
Cameron Carter-Vickers3%
Kasper Schmeichel0%
Luis Palma0%
Greg Taylor0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Álex Valle0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Greg Taylor17%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn14%
Johnny Kenny12%
Alistair Johnston12%
Daizen Maeda9%
Paulo Bernardo8%
Callum McGregor7%
Reo Hatate6%
Auston Trusty6%
Liam Scales6%
Álex Valle6%
Anthony Ralston5%
Arne Engels5%
Yang Hyun-Jun3%
Cameron Carter-Vickers3%
Kasper Schmeichel2%
Adam Idah2%
Jota0%
James Forrest0%
Jeffrey Schlupp0%
Luis Palma0%
Kyogo Furuhashi0%
Luke McCowan0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Maik Nawrocki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Álex Valle25%
Alistair Johnston24%
James Forrest22%
Greg Taylor22%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn21%
Daizen Maeda19%
Arne Engels18%
Anthony Ralston16%
Jota15%
Reo Hatate13%
Johnny Kenny12%
Luke McCowan11%
Kyogo Furuhashi10%
Yang Hyun-Jun10%
Liam Scales9%
Paulo Bernardo8%
Callum McGregor7%
Jeffrey Schlupp7%
Auston Trusty3%
Kasper Schmeichel0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luis Palma0%
Adam Idah0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Maik Nawrocki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kyogo Furuhashi31%
Adam Idah29%
Arne Engels23%
Daizen Maeda21%
Reo Hatate19%
Jota15%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn14%
Johnny Kenny12%
Luis Palma10%
Luke McCowan6%
James Forrest4%
Yang Hyun-Jun3%
Auston Trusty3%
Liam Scales3%
Paulo Bernardo3%
Callum McGregor2%
Anthony Ralston0%
Kasper Schmeichel0%
Jeffrey Schlupp0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Greg Taylor0%
Alistair Johnston0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Maik Nawrocki0%
Álex Valle0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Aberdeen's squad is €102m less valuable than Celtic's (€15m vs €116m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Aberdeen's attack is €52m less valuable than Celtic's (€4m vs €56m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Aberdeen's midfield is €15m less valuable than Celtic's (€4m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Aberdeen's defence is €34m less valuable than Celtic's (€7m vs €41m).
Scotland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Hibernian
Dundee Utd
Heart Of Midlothian
ST Mirren
Motherwell
Kilmarnock
Dundee
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Partick