This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.20
2.24
1.06
2.08
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.40
1.40
2.00
2.50
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.32
1.16
2.27
0.87
2.40
1.60
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.2%
Under 2.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.8%
Under 3.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.3%
0-1
7.4%
1-3
6.5%
2-1
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
0-3
5.5%
Aberdeen goals ↓
Celtic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
7.4%
8.3%
5.5%
2.7%
1
4.0%
11%
9.8%
6.5%
3.2%
2
3.0%
5.9%
5.8%
3.8%
1.9%
3
1.2%
2.3%
2.3%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aberdeen goals (down), columns = Celtic goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Aberdeen is 1.11 points worse than Celtic in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 2.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Aberdeen is 0.87 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Aberdeen is 0.37 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Aberdeen is 17.5 percentage points worse than Celtic in terms of average possession (48% vs 66%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aberdeen
For 5.3 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
For 6.5 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.7
10.2
2.8
3.2
2.4
25.6
27.1
24.2
vs Stronger (9)
11.5
12.0
11.2
3.6
6.0
2.3
25.8
29.3
23.6
vs Similar (25)
9.9
10.5
9.2
3.0
3.6
2.4
26.5
27.2
25.5
vs Weaker (16)
10.4
10.2
10.6
2.1
1.9
2.3
24.1
25.2
23.2
% over line
65%
80%
50%
42%
48%
36%
87%
100%
75%
% under line
35%
20%
50%
58%
52%
64%
13%
0%
25%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.4
11.5
2.1
2.2
2.0
20.8
19.8
22.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
11.8
7.0
16.5
1.3
1.8
0.8
22.8
26.5
19.0
vs Weaker (40)
11.4
12.0
10.4
2.4
2.3
2.4
20.5
18.8
23.1
% over line
70%
69%
73%
26%
25%
27%
33%
25%
45%
% under line
30%
31%
27%
74%
75%
73%
67%
75%
55%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.1
Celtic
11.0
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
Aberdeen
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Rangers
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.1
Dundee
9.7
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Motherwell
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.7
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.8
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.7
Motherwell
25.9
Aberdeen
25.6
Falkirk
25.4
Heart Of Midlothian
24.6
Kilmarnock
24.2
Hibernian
23.2
ST Mirren
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.2
Dundee
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.9
Celtic
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
63.1%
Under 9.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
65.4%
Under 3.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.5%
Under 21.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aberdeen or Draw
45.2%
Avg Implied -
21%
24%
55%
covers Aberdeen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen or Celtic
76.3%
Avg Implied -
21%
24%
55%
covers Aberdeen + Celtic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Celtic
78.5%
Avg Implied -
21%
24%
55%
covers Draw + Celtic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5
Over
86.1%
Under
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5
Over
58.8%
Under
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5
Over
31.7%
Under
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 3.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aberdeen, so a minus line means Aberdeen give that many goals of a start and Celtic receive them. At -1, Aberdeen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aberdeen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aberdeen)
Aberdeen -2
2.7%
Draw -2
6.1%
Celtic +2
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aberdeen)
Aberdeen -1
8.8%
Draw -1
12.7%
Celtic +1
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aberdeen)
Aberdeen +1
45.2%
Draw +1
21.9%
Celtic -1
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aberdeen)
Aberdeen +2
67.1%
Draw +2
17.0%
Celtic -2
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.88
0.50
0.29
1.14
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.45
0.67
0.17
0.00
0.80
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.85
1.29
0.71
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.50
1.41
0.41
0.92
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
1.32
0.40
1.47
0.27
1.10
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.88
0.44
0.36
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.36
1.00
0.17
0.00
0.60
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.77
1.14
0.43
0.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
0.82
0.65
1.15
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.00
0.76
0.80
0.60
1.30
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aberdeen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
K. Nisbet25%
L. Mayo25%
M. Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
L. Mayo75%
Aremu Afeez50%
Daniel Happe33%
C. Ronan33%
Alexander Briedl33%
Chris Cadden25%
K. Nisbet25%
Toyosi Olusanya25%
M. Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
L. Smith0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Nisbet25%
M. Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
L. Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Happe33%
K. Nisbet25%
M. Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
L. Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Celtic
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Nygren67%
C. Durán50%
Kasper Høgh25%
Luke McCowan25%
C. McGregor20%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luke McCowan25%
C. Carter-Vickers17%
Colby Donovan17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
H. Hassan0%
B. Nygren0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
C. Durán0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Nygren50%
Kieran Tierney40%
C. Durán33%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Durán67%
Kasper Høgh50%
H. Hassan33%
B. Nygren33%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Aberdeen's squad is €102m less valuable than Celtic's (€15m vs €116m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Aberdeen's attack is €52m less valuable than Celtic's (€4m vs €56m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Aberdeen's midfield is €15m less valuable than Celtic's (€4m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Aberdeen's defence is €34m less valuable than Celtic's (€7m vs €41m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Falkirk
Kilmarnock