PythiaFootballBETA
This Scotland: Premiership match between Aberdeen and Heart Of Midlothian promises to be a closely contested affair. The recent form of both teams adds to the intrigue, with Aberdeen coming off a defeat to Dundee and Heart Of Midlothian off a win against Dundee Utd. The model's selection for this match is an Away win, with a probability of 37%.
The expected total goals for this match is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.4%. In terms of scoring and conceding, Aberdeen have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded at home, while Heart Of Midlothian have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded away against similar opponents.
The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals, Over 21.5 fouls, Over 3.5 cards, and Under 3.5 cards, with probabilities ranging from 71.1% to 76.6%. The home win percentage is 35%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 37%.
Aberdeen's 2-1 home victory over Heart of Midlothian extends their winning streak, but it was a surprise result as the pre-match favourite, Heart of Midlothian, failed to come through. The model picked an away win by Heart of Midlothian, but unfortunately, this call was wrong. The model's selection had a 37% pre-match probability of winning.
The model's selection, Heart of Midlothian, also missed the most likely total goals score of 2. The model's suggested picks included Over 1.5, Over 21.5 fouls, Over 3.5 cards, and Under 3.5, with probabilities of 76.6%, 74.8%, 72.3%, and 71.1% respectively. All of these selections hit, with Over 1.5 being the most likely outcome.
Aberdeen| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.60 | 1.53 | 1.27 | 0.67 | 1.93 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 2.43 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.73 | 0.82 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.83 | 1.83 | 2.33 | 1.83 | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Heart Of Midlothian| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 0.97 | 1.67 | 0.60 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.57 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.54 | 0.62 | 1.67 | 0.33 | 1.43 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.40 | 0.70 | 1.80 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Heart Of Midlothian goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 13% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.0% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
AberdeenHeart Of MidlothianAberdeen| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 25.3 | 25.9 | 24.7 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 9.6 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 24.4 | 23.6 | 25.3 |
| vs Similar (19) | 10.0 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 25.8 | 27.0 | 24.7 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 10.8 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 25.5 | 26.8 | 24.3 |
| % over line | 56% | 67% | 46% | 66% | 79% | 54% | 84% | 92% | 77% |
| % under line | 44% | 33% | 54% | 34% | 21% | 46% | 16% | 8% | 23% |
Heart Of Midlothian| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 23.6 | 23.2 | 24.0 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 23.7 | 24.6 | 22.8 |
| vs Similar (22) | 9.2 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 25.1 | 25.8 | 24.4 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 10.8 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 21.6 | 19.0 | 24.1 |
| % over line | 62% | 65% | 58% | 56% | 50% | 62% | 60% | 54% | 67% |
| % under line | 38% | 35% | 42% | 44% | 50% | 38% | 40% | 46% | 33% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 | -0.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 75.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 72.4% | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | +6.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 71.1% | 1.42 | 1.47 | 1.45 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.42 | +5.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 23/11/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/08/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 12/01/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 01/12/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/10/24 | H | 3-2 | |
| 27/01/24 | A | 2-0 | |
| 09/12/23 | H | 2-1 |
Aberdeen| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
Heart Of Midlothian| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Celtic | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.5 | 100% | 1.5 | 0% | 19.0 | 50% | 154 | 55 | 38 | 60 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 66% |
| 2 |  ST Mirren | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 27.5 | 50% | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 46% |
| 3 |  Motherwell | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 7.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 100% | 30.0 | 100% | 21 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 4 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 50% | 24.5 | 100% | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 53% |
| 5 |  Dundee | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 50% | 18.5 | 0% | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 44% |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 4.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | 19.0 | 0% | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 7 |  Hibernian | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.5 | 100% | 3.0 | 50% | 25.5 | 100% | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 24.0 | 50% | 24 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 9 |  Rangers | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 3.0 | 50% | 27.0 | 100% | 127 | 59 | 28 | 40 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 10 |  Falkirk | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 | 50% | 4.0 | 100% | 34.5 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 11 |  Dundee Utd | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 12.0 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 26.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 42% |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | 20.5 | 50% | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 42% |