Aberdeen are favoured to win, with a 53% chance of lifting the trophy, a 27% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of a Kilmarnock victory. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.8% probability. Aberdeen’s home form against similar opposition shows they score an average of 1.75 goals and concede 0.75, while Kilmarnock on the road against similar teams averages 0.5 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 88.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 86.3%, Under 4.5 cards at 77.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 74.7%, Over 1.5 at 74.7%, and Under 3.5 at 73.3%. The final score was 1-0, a home win.
Results analysis
The match saw Aberdeen extend a modest run, coming off a defeat to Rangers, while Kilmarnock also finished a loss, having been beaten 0-4 by Dundee Utd. The Pythia model’s favourite was a Home win with a 53% probability, and it proved correct as Aberdeen secured a 1-0 victory. The model’s selections largely came through: Under 5.5 cards hit at 88.8%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 86.3%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 77.1%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 74.7%, Over 1.5 missed at 74.7%, and Under 3.5 hit at 73.3%. The final score of 1-0 matched the predicted most likely 1-0 outcome, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aberdeen win✓ Hit
52.8%
Avg Implied 50.9% · @ 1.84
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.45
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied 21.9% · @ 4.28
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aberdeen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.17
1.27
1.27
1.27
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
2.29
0.75
2.25
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (9)
1.56
1.00
1.75
0.75
1.40
1.20
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.71
1.29
1.00
1.57
0.43
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.43
1.53
1.07
0.80
1.80
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
1.58
1.60
1.40
1.14
1.71
vs Similar (18)
1.06
1.33
1.50
0.90
0.50
1.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.5%
@ 2.21+5.9%
Under 2.5
51.5%
@ 1.64-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.9%
No
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-0 ✓
11.0%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
0-1
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
Aberdeen goals ↓
Kilmarnock goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
5.8%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.5%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10%
9.6%
4.6%
1.5%
0.3%
3
5.6%
5.3%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.3%
2.2%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aberdeen goals (down), columns = Kilmarnock goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.68
Celtic
2.03
Hibernian
1.66
Aberdeen
1.47
Livingston
1.18
ST Mirren
1.18
Motherwell
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.16
Ross County
1.03
Kilmarnock
0.95
Hamilton
0.79
Aberdeen is 0.53 points better than Kilmarnock in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 0.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.42
Celtic
2.05
Hibernian
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.13
Livingston
1.11
Motherwell
1.03
ST Mirren
0.97
Aberdeen
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.95
Ross County
0.92
Hamilton
0.89
Dundee Utd
0.84
Aberdeen is 0.18 goals worse than Kilmarnock in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 1.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rangers
0.34
Celtic
0.76
Hibernian
0.92
Aberdeen
1.00
ST Mirren
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee Utd
1.32
Livingston
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.42
Motherwell
1.45
Ross County
1.74
Hamilton
1.76
Aberdeen is 0.42 goals better than Kilmarnock in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aberdeen
For 3.8 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 12.4 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
For 5.3 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 12.9 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.2
9.2
3.6
3.2
3.9
26.1
26.1
26.0
vs Stronger (11)
10.1
10.5
9.6
3.7
3.5
4.0
24.1
24.8
23.2
vs Similar (18)
7.6
7.9
7.3
4.7
4.6
4.8
27.9
28.0
27.8
vs Weaker (21)
10.1
9.5
10.9
2.5
2.1
3.0
25.5
25.5
25.6
% over line
48%
48%
48%
44%
36%
52%
78%
80%
76%
% under line
52%
52%
52%
56%
64%
48%
22%
20%
24%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.6
10.4
3.7
3.6
3.7
23.6
24.7
22.6
vs Stronger (22)
10.5
10.5
10.4
3.4
2.9
3.8
22.9
24.0
22.0
vs Similar (28)
9.7
9.0
10.5
3.9
4.1
3.6
24.2
25.2
23.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
48%
44%
56%
60%
52%
64%
72%
56%
% under line
54%
52%
56%
44%
40%
48%
36%
28%
44%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee Utd
11.7
Hamilton
11.5
Ross County
11.0
Rangers
10.7
ST Mirren
10.7
Hibernian
10.6
Celtic
10.4
Motherwell
10.2
Kilmarnock
10.0
ST Johnstone
10.0
Livingston
9.8
Aberdeen
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.9
Ross County
3.9
Kilmarnock
3.7
Hibernian
3.7
Rangers
3.6
Aberdeen
3.6
Dundee Utd
3.5
Celtic
3.4
ST Johnstone
3.3
ST Mirren
3.1
Hamilton
3.1
Livingston
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.1
Ross County
24.8
Motherwell
24.7
Hamilton
24.4
Kilmarnock
23.6
ST Johnstone
23.3
Hibernian
23.3
ST Mirren
23.3
Livingston
23.2
Rangers
22.9
Dundee Utd
22.4
Celtic
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.7%
Under 9.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.0%
Under 3.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.7%
Under 21.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.53
0.93
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.57
0.50
2.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.44
0.50
0.50
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.36
0.57
0.57
1.00
0.14
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.73
0.60
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.71
0.71
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.56
0.60
0.40
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.73
0.33
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.71
0.25
0.25
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.56
1.25
0.25
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
0.36
0.71
0.43
0.57
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.80
0.47
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.75
0.60
0.40
0.43
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.78
0.90
0.50
0.25
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aberdeen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Nisbet33%
Lewis Mayo33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aremu Afeez67%
Lewis Mayo67%
Daniel Happe33%
Chris Cadden33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Toyosi Olusanya33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Lewis Smith0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Happe33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Kilmarnock · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie33%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen33%
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Bailey Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill67%
Tyreece John-Jules33%
Jamie Brandon33%
Bailey Rice33%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery67%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Joe Hugill0%
Bailey Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Bailey Rice0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Aberdeen's squad is €8m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€15m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Aberdeen's attack is €1m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€4m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Aberdeen's midfield is €2m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Aberdeen's defence is €4m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€7m vs €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Celtic
Hibernian
ST Mirren
ST Johnstone
Livingston
Motherwell
Dundee Utd
Ross County