Aberdeen’s recent form shows a sharp return to winning ways after a defeat, while Kilmarnock are still reeling from a heavy loss. The model favours a home win, with a 56% chance, a 23% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of a Kilmarnock victory. The expected total goals sit at 3.2, pointing to a high-scoring encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 10.5% probability. Aberdeen’s home side averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Kilmarnock’s away form sees them scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.58. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.0%, Under 6.5 at 95.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.7% with a 5% edge, and Home +2 handicap at 91.5%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aberdeen win
55.9%
Avg Implied 54.4% · @ 1.72
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Dafabet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Draw
23.1%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.83
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.10
Pinnacle
3.90
Betano
3.90
10Bet
3.85
1xBet
3.84
Kilmarnock win
21.0%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.43
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.64
Dafabet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aberdeen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.47
1.75
0.94
0.64
2.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.33
0.33
1.67
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.82
1.67
0.33
0.00
1.40
vs Weaker (13)
1.92
1.62
2.43
1.14
1.33
2.17
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.77
1.69
1.62
1.14
1.93
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
3.17
1.25
2.75
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.57
1.48
1.91
1.36
1.25
1.58
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.4%
@ 1.19+5.8%
Under 1.5
15.6%
@ 4.35-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.50
Pinnacle
4.46
Unibet
4.40
BetVictor
4.40
Betfair
4.33
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.8%
@ 1.66+6.1%
Under 2.5
37.2%
@ 2.18-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
Betano
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.6%
@ 2.61+4.8%
Under 3.5
59.4%
@ 1.46-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.70
Betano
2.70
10Bet
2.65
BetVictor
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Both teams to score
Yes
61.7%
@ 1.62+4.6%
No
38.3%
@ 2.16-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.65
BetVictor
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
No
Unibet
2.20
William Hil
2.20
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.17
BetVictor
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%@ 6.99+4.2%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.62+3.9%
2-0
8.2%@ 8.71+3.0%
1-0
7.0%@ 7.88+1.4%
3-1
6.7%@ 12.00+2.9%
2-2
5.9%@ 12.19+2.2%
1-2
5.7%@ 12.81+2.3%
3-0
5.6%@ 13.22+2.2%
Aberdeen goals ↓
Kilmarnock goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
3.7%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
1
7.0%
11%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.8%
5.9%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.6%
6.7%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
4
2.8%
3.4%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aberdeen goals (down), columns = Kilmarnock goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Aberdeen and Kilmarnock are level in average points per game (both 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Aberdeen is 0.26 goals worse than Kilmarnock in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Aberdeen is 0.34 goals better than Kilmarnock in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.79).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Aberdeen is 5.6 percentage points better than Kilmarnock in terms of average possession (48% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aberdeen
For 5.3 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
For 4.4 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.9
9.8
4.1
4.5
3.6
25.5
26.8
24.1
vs Stronger (11)
11.4
12.4
10.5
4.5
6.6
2.7
25.5
27.6
23.7
vs Similar (21)
9.6
10.0
9.0
5.1
5.2
5.0
26.3
27.3
24.9
vs Weaker (18)
10.6
11.3
10.1
2.6
2.3
2.9
24.2
25.2
23.5
% over line
61%
74%
48%
56%
65%
46%
85%
96%
74%
% under line
39%
26%
52%
44%
35%
54%
15%
4%
26%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
9.9
4.1
4.2
3.9
24.4
25.1
23.5
vs Stronger (13)
11.2
10.7
11.7
3.8
4.1
3.5
22.1
23.7
20.2
vs Similar (36)
8.9
8.7
9.2
4.2
4.4
4.0
25.9
26.9
24.9
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
9.0
9.0
-
% over line
50%
43%
57%
64%
68%
59%
73%
83%
62%
% under line
50%
57%
43%
36%
32%
41%
27%
17%
38%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.1
Celtic
11.0
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
Aberdeen
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Rangers
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.1
Dundee
9.7
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Motherwell
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.7
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.8
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.7
Motherwell
25.9
Aberdeen
25.6
Falkirk
25.4
Heart Of Midlothian
24.6
Kilmarnock
24.2
Hibernian
23.2
ST Mirren
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.2
Dundee
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.9
Celtic
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.6%
@ 1.69+0.6%
Under 9.5
44.4%
@ 2.06-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Under
Unibet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
68.7%
Under 3.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.1%
Under 21.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aberdeen or Draw
79.0%
Avg Implied 78.4% · @ 1.20
Edge
+0.6%
56%
23%
21%
covers Aberdeen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Aberdeen or Kilmarnock
76.9%
Avg Implied 75.9% · @ 1.24
Edge
+0.9%
56%
23%
21%
covers Aberdeen + Kilmarnock
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Draw or Kilmarnock
44.1%
Avg Implied 45.7% · @ 2.05
Edge
-1.5%
56%
23%
21%
covers Draw + Kilmarnock
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.09
1xBet
2.09
10Bet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5
Over
87.0%
@ 1.11+4.1%
Under
13.0%
@ 5.42-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Aberdeen over/under 1.5
Over
60.5%
@ 1.67+4.4%
Under
39.5%
@ 2.13-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
10Bet
2.10
Aberdeen over/under 2.5
Over
33.5%
@ 3.05+3.0%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.33-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.07
Marathonbet
3.05
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.05
Under
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Aberdeen over/under 3.5
Over
15.0%
@ 6.38+0.5%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.08-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Betano
5.90
Under
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5
Over
69.8%
@ 1.40+3.6%
Under
30.2%
@ 2.76-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
1xBet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.81
10Bet
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5
Over
33.7%
@ 3.00+2.6%
Under
66.3%
@ 1.35-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.15
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Under
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
@ 7.91+0.2%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.06-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.50
Unibet
6.75
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Kilmarnock over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
@ 18.88-1.7%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.01+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aberdeen, so a minus line means Aberdeen give that many goals of a start and Kilmarnock receive them. At -1, Aberdeen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aberdeen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aberdeen)
Aberdeen -2
16.9%
@ 5.55+0.7%
Draw -2
17.2%
@ 4.96-0.9%
Kilmarnock +2
65.9%
@ 1.37+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
5.80
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Draw
Marathonbet
5.20
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Handicap -1 (Aberdeen)
Aberdeen -1
34.1%
@ 2.83+2.4%
Draw -1
21.7%
@ 3.65-2.8%
Kilmarnock +1
44.1%
@ 2.05+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.95
10Bet
2.85
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.75
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.55
Away
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
1.95
Handicap +1 (Aberdeen)
Aberdeen +1
79.0%
@ 1.19+5.2%
Draw +1
12.4%
@ 5.54-3.5%
Kilmarnock -1
8.6%
@ 8.51-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Draw
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Marathonbet
4.30
Away
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
6.05
Handicap +2 (Aberdeen)
Aberdeen +2
91.4%
@ 1.05+3.2%
Draw +2
5.9%
@ 12.00-1.8%
Kilmarnock -2
2.7%
@ 22.50-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Draw
Bet365
15.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
26.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.88
0.50
0.29
1.14
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.45
0.67
0.17
0.00
0.80
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.85
1.29
0.71
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.81
0.69
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.70
0.91
0.64
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.9%
@ 1.30-0.7%
Under 0.5
29.1%
@ 3.28+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
BetVictor
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.1%
@ 2.42-4.4%
Under 1.5
65.9%
@ 1.51+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.55
Pinnacle
2.46
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Under
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
BetVictor
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.7%
@ 5.64-2.7%
Under 2.5
86.3%
@ 1.11+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.4%
@ 1.65-5.2%
Under
48.6%
@ 2.15+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.10
Unibet
2.07
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.1%
@ 4.17-6.1%
Under
83.9%
@ 1.19+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.40
Unibet
4.35
Betano
4.20
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Under
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
@ 9.50-6.6%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.04+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.7%
@ 2.38+0.7%
Under
60.3%
@ 1.53-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.54
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.40
1xBet
2.34
10Bet
2.30
Under
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.9%
@ 8.30-1.3%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.04+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.80
1xBet
8.40
Betano
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.88
0.44
0.36
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.36
1.00
0.17
0.00
0.60
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.77
1.14
0.43
0.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.00
0.88
0.94
0.71
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.75
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.78
1.00
0.73
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.6%
@ 1.17+0.2%
Under 0.5
20.4%
@ 4.49-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Under
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.65
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.7%
@ 1.86-5.4%
Under 1.5
55.3%
@ 1.87+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.0%
@ 3.67-5.2%
Under 2.5
80.0%
@ 1.24+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
1xBet
3.64
Under
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.3%
@ 1.44-3.6%
Under
38.7%
@ 2.65+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Under
1xBet
2.65
Betano
2.65
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.4%
@ 3.04-10.1%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.33+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Betano
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.4%
@ 7.30-7.3%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.06+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.7%
@ 1.99+2.1%
Under
51.3%
@ 1.74-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Betano
1.98
Under
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.8%
@ 6.03-0.6%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.09+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.65
1xBet
6.20
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
@ 11.50-5.2%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+1.7%
Under 6.5
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+0.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
+7.3%
Home +2 handicap
91.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
-
-
-
+3.2%
Over 19.5 fouls
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+1.3%
Under 5.5
89.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.04
BetVictor
1.03
-0.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
88.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-0.2%
Home over 0.5 goals
87.0%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+4.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.11
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
+2.7%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.2%
1.09
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+0.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
85.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-0.5%
Over 2.5 cards
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.4%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+5.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.9%
1.19
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
+6.1%
Over 21.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.24
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
+5.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.33
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
-
+10.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+0.2%
Home or Draw
79.0%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
+0.6%
Home +1 handicap
79.0%
1.19
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
-
+5.2%
Under 4.5
77.3%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-2.9%
Home or Away
76.9%
1.24
Unibet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+0.9%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.30
Betano
1.36
BetVictor
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-0.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aberdeen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
K. Nisbet25%
L. Mayo25%
M. Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
L. Mayo75%
Aremu Afeez50%
Daniel Happe33%
C. Ronan33%
Alexander Briedl33%
Chris Cadden25%
K. Nisbet25%
Toyosi Olusanya25%
M. Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
L. Smith0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Nisbet25%
M. Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
L. Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Happe33%
K. Nisbet25%
M. Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
L. Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Kilmarnock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie25%
M. Schjønning-Larsen25%
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill50%
B. Rice50%
Tyreece John-Jules25%
J. Brandon25%
Greg Kiltie25%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
G. Stanger0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery50%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Joe Hugill0%
B. Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Aberdeen's squad is €8m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€15m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Aberdeen's attack is €1m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€4m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Aberdeen's midfield is €2m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Aberdeen's defence is €4m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€7m vs €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Falkirk