Aberdeen are favoured to win, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of a Motherwell victory. The model predicts an average of 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being two and the most probable scoreline 1-1 at 13.7%. Aberdeen’s home form shows they average 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded against similar opposition, while Motherwell’s away form is 0.83 goals scored and 0.92 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 92.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 90.3%, Under 4.5 cards at 82.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.0%, Under 3.5 at 75.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 73.7% and Over 1.5 at 72.5%. Aberdeen’s recent run of LWLWW, ending with a 0-1 loss to Rangers, contrasts with Motherwell’s DLLDW streak, which included a 3-3 draw with St Mirren. The match is set to be a tight contest, but the odds favour the hosts.
Results analysis
Aberdeen’s recent form, marked by a win after a defeat, set the stage for a home victory that the model predicted correctly. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the home win, matching the model’s pick and its 46% probability. The match also delivered on every suggested selection: Under 5.5 cards hit at 92.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 90.3%, Under 4.5 cards at 82.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.0%, Under 3.5 at 75.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 73.7%, and Over 1.5 at 72.5%. Each probability was expressed in percentage terms, and all outcomes were settled as hit, underscoring the model’s accurate forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aberdeen win✓ Hit
46.0%
Avg Implied 48.2% · @ 1.95
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.44
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Motherwell win✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.83
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aberdeen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.10
1.50
1.25
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.00
1.25
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.60
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
1.64
1.07
1.86
1.14
1.43
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.47
0.94
1.69
0.79
1.21
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
3.33
0.75
3.50
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.00
1.00
1.08
0.83
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.5%
Under 1.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.6%
@ 2.15+1.7%
Under 2.5
54.4%
@ 1.68-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.2%
Under 3.5
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
9.1%
2-0 ✓
8.9%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.7%
Aberdeen goals ↓
Motherwell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
7.2%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.1%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.3%
4.5%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aberdeen goals (down), columns = Motherwell goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.68
Celtic
2.03
Hibernian
1.66
Aberdeen
1.47
Livingston
1.18
ST Mirren
1.18
Motherwell
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.16
Ross County
1.03
Kilmarnock
0.95
Hamilton
0.79
Aberdeen is 0.29 points better than Motherwell in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.42
Celtic
2.05
Hibernian
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.13
Livingston
1.11
Motherwell
1.03
ST Mirren
0.97
Aberdeen
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.95
Ross County
0.92
Hamilton
0.89
Dundee Utd
0.84
Aberdeen is 0.08 goals worse than Motherwell in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rangers
0.34
Celtic
0.76
Hibernian
0.92
Aberdeen
1.00
ST Mirren
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee Utd
1.32
Livingston
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.42
Motherwell
1.45
Ross County
1.74
Hamilton
1.76
Aberdeen is 0.45 goals better than Motherwell in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aberdeen
For 4.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 12.8 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
For 3.7 · Against 6.2 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.2
9.7
2.8
2.7
3.0
26.4
26.3
26.5
vs Stronger (10)
9.2
8.5
10.2
3.2
2.8
3.8
25.0
26.7
22.5
vs Similar (17)
9.9
10.4
9.6
3.0
3.0
3.0
26.3
25.6
26.9
vs Weaker (23)
9.2
8.8
9.6
2.6
2.3
2.8
27.1
26.7
27.6
% over line
48%
42%
54%
28%
23%
33%
82%
85%
79%
% under line
52%
58%
46%
72%
77%
67%
18%
15%
21%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.4
10.2
3.5
3.5
3.6
24.6
23.4
25.9
vs Stronger (9)
10.6
10.0
11.2
2.7
3.0
2.2
20.9
22.0
19.5
vs Similar (41)
10.2
10.5
10.0
3.7
3.6
3.9
25.4
23.8
27.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
62%
58%
50%
50%
50%
74%
69%
79%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
50%
50%
50%
26%
31%
21%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
10.9
Dundee Utd
10.9
Hamilton
10.9
Hibernian
10.8
Ross County
10.7
ST Mirren
10.5
Kilmarnock
10.4
Celtic
10.3
Motherwell
10.3
ST Johnstone
9.5
Aberdeen
9.5
Livingston
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.5
Dundee Utd
3.5
ST Johnstone
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Rangers
3.3
Kilmarnock
3.3
ST Mirren
3.2
Hibernian
3.2
Celtic
3.1
Hamilton
3.1
Livingston
3.1
Aberdeen
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.4
ST Johnstone
24.8
Hibernian
24.8
Hamilton
24.7
Kilmarnock
24.6
Motherwell
24.6
Ross County
24.5
Livingston
24.3
ST Mirren
23.8
Rangers
23.1
Dundee Utd
23.0
Celtic
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.6%
Under 9.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.5%
Under 3.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.0%
Under 21.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.75
0.69
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.50
0.62
0.79
0.36
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.25
1.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.33
0.58
0.33
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.75
0.56
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.75
1.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.60
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
0.57
0.86
0.57
0.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.97
0.44
1.06
0.00
0.86
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.17
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
0.21
0.67
0.42
0.75
0.00
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aberdeen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Nisbet33%
Lewis Mayo33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aremu Afeez67%
Lewis Mayo67%
Daniel Happe33%
Chris Cadden33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Toyosi Olusanya33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Lewis Smith0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Happe33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Motherwell · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Regan Charles-Cook40%
Lukas Fadinger20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Ibrahim Said20%
Tawanda Maswanhise20%
Alex Paulsen0%
Alex Lowry0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Fadinger60%
Martin Moormann50%
Joe Hodge33%
Tom Sparrow25%
Alex Lowry20%
Jamie Knight-Lebel20%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Emmanuel Longelo0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Williams33%
Alex Lowry20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Ibrahim Said20%
Lukas Fadinger0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawanda Maswanhise40%
Lukas Fadinger20%
Alex Lowry20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Aberdeen's squad is €1m less valuable than Motherwell's (€15m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Aberdeen's attack is €6m less valuable than Motherwell's (€4m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Aberdeen's midfield is €3m more valuable than Motherwell's (€4m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Aberdeen's defence is €2m more valuable than Motherwell's (€7m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Celtic
Hibernian
ST Mirren
ST Johnstone
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Ross County
Kilmarnock