Aberdeen’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding only a third of a goal per game, while Motherwell’s away defence has been porous, allowing more than a goal per match. The model projects a tight affair, with a 43% chance of a home win, a 32% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of an away victory. The most likely result is a home win, and the expected total goals is 2.1, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability. Aberdeen’s average home scoring of 1.33 and conceding 0.33 against similar opponents contrasts with Motherwell’s away average of 1.08 scored and 1.23 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 90.5%, Under 3.5 at 83.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 74.3%, and Over 8.5 corners at 74.0%; Under 5.5 cards at 80.4% is a miss.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Motherwell overturned the pre-match favourite, Aberdeen, with a 0-2 win that snapped the home side’s run of LWLWW and left them still coming off a defeat to Rangers. The model had tipped a Home win at 43% probability, but the prediction was wrong. The final score of 0-2 produced an Away win, confirming the model’s pick was incorrect. Among the suggested selections, Over 19.5 fouls at 90.5% hit, Under 3.5 at 83.2% hit, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.2% hit, Over 2.5 cards at 74.3% hit, and Over 8.5 corners at 74.0% hit, while Under 5.5 cards at 80.4% missed. The match delivered more drama than the model anticipated.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aberdeen win✗ Miss
43.1%
Avg Implied 53.6% · @ 1.76
Edge
-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.53
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Motherwell win✓ Hit
25.2%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.80
Edge
+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aberdeen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.20
0.86
0.79
0.75
1.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.86
1.00
1.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.80
1.33
0.33
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
1.15
0.20
0.80
1.12
1.38
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.50
1.40
1.73
1.07
1.27
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.40
0.67
3.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.32
1.32
1.58
1.42
1.08
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.3%
Under 1.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.0%
@ 2.22-6.6%
Under 2.5
64.0%
@ 1.65+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 3.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.3%
No
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
13.4%
0-0
13.1%
0-1
9.2%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
5.8%
0-2 ✓
4.7%
Aberdeen goals ↓
Motherwell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.2%
4.7%
1.4%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.8%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.2%
8.2%
3.6%
1.1%
0.2%
3
3.8%
3.4%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aberdeen goals (down), columns = Motherwell goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Aberdeen is 0.13 points worse than Motherwell in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Aberdeen is 0.03 goals worse than Motherwell in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Aberdeen is 0.39 goals better than Motherwell in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aberdeen
For 5.1 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 15.5 · Total 29.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
For 4.4 · Against 6.9 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 14.4 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.1
9.9
3.2
3.1
3.2
26.9
26.5
27.3
vs Stronger (10)
11.2
10.2
12.2
2.3
2.6
2.0
25.1
27.4
22.8
vs Similar (18)
9.4
8.7
10.4
3.3
3.6
2.9
26.6
26.0
27.4
vs Weaker (22)
8.8
8.9
8.7
3.5
2.9
3.9
28.0
26.6
29.1
% over line
40%
28%
52%
34%
32%
36%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
60%
72%
48%
66%
68%
64%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
9.8
11.3
3.6
3.8
3.4
25.5
25.7
25.2
vs Stronger (9)
12.1
11.8
12.5
2.7
2.4
3.0
21.8
21.6
22.0
vs Similar (41)
10.2
9.4
11.1
3.8
4.1
3.5
26.3
26.6
25.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
58%
71%
50%
50%
50%
78%
81%
75%
% under line
36%
42%
29%
50%
50%
50%
22%
19%
25%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.7
Rangers
10.6
Celtic
10.6
Dundee
10.6
Motherwell
10.6
Dundee Utd
10.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.5
ST Mirren
10.2
Hibernian
10.0
Aberdeen
9.5
ST Johnstone
9.5
Livingston
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dundee Utd
3.6
Heart Of Midlothian
3.6
ST Johnstone
3.6
Motherwell
3.6
Dundee
3.5
Rangers
3.4
Livingston
3.4
Ross County
3.3
Hibernian
3.2
Aberdeen
3.2
ST Mirren
3.1
Celtic
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.9
Heart Of Midlothian
26.1
Motherwell
25.5
ST Johnstone
25.4
Hibernian
25.4
Livingston
25.2
Ross County
25.1
Dundee
24.7
Dundee Utd
24.7
ST Mirren
24.1
Rangers
23.5
Celtic
22.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.5%
Under 9.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.2%
Under 3.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.2%
Under 21.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.36
0.50
0.31
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.23
0.54
0.00
0.60
0.38
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.68
0.75
0.58
0.31
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.50
0.29
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.86
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.40
0.67
0.00
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.62
0.20
0.20
0.75
0.88
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.67
1.07
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.64
0.83
0.83
0.77
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aberdeen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Nisbet33%
Lewis Mayo33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aremu Afeez67%
Lewis Mayo67%
Daniel Happe33%
Chris Cadden33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Toyosi Olusanya33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Lewis Smith0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Happe33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Motherwell · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Regan Charles-Cook40%
Lukas Fadinger20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Ibrahim Said20%
Tawanda Maswanhise20%
Alex Paulsen0%
Alex Lowry0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Fadinger60%
Martin Moormann50%
Joe Hodge33%
Tom Sparrow25%
Alex Lowry20%
Jamie Knight-Lebel20%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Emmanuel Longelo0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Williams33%
Alex Lowry20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Ibrahim Said20%
Lukas Fadinger0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawanda Maswanhise40%
Lukas Fadinger20%
Alex Lowry20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Aberdeen's squad is €1m less valuable than Motherwell's (€15m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Aberdeen's attack is €6m less valuable than Motherwell's (€4m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Aberdeen's midfield is €3m more valuable than Motherwell's (€4m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Aberdeen's defence is €2m more valuable than Motherwell's (€7m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Heart Of Midlothian
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Hibernian
ST Mirren
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Dundee