Aberdeen and Motherwell face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 31% for a home victory, 31% for a draw and 38% for a Motherwell win, so the latter is the most likely outcome. The match is expected to see about 2.3 goals on average, with the single most probable total being two goals at 28%. The scoreline that the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 14.5% chance. Aberdeen, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded, while Motherwell, on the road, averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Under 5.5 (97.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 4.5 (91.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.5%) and Over 19.5 fouls (90.3%). Each selection carries its own probability, and no other outcome is given a win chance.
Results analysis
Aberdeen’s recent form, a win-win-loss-win-win sequence, left them rattled after a 0-1 defeat to Rangers, while Motherwell, coming off a 3-3 draw with St Mirren, had a mixed DLLDW run. The Pythia model favoured an away win at 38% and was right as Motherwell edged Aberdeen 0-1. The model’s selections also proved accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.7%, Under 6.5 at 99.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.6%, Under 5.5 at 97.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.3%, Under 4.5 at 91.5%, and Home under 2.5 goals at 90.5%. All predictions came through, confirming the model’s confidence.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aberdeen win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Motherwell win✓ Hit
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aberdeen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.53
1.40
1.33
0.80
1.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
3.14
1.00
2.50
0.33
4.00
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.38
1.43
0.86
0.33
2.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.60
1.75
1.00
1.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
1.75
1.25
0.83
1.44
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.67
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
1.42
1.78
1.22
0.67
1.53
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
3.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.6%
Under 2.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.3%
Under 3.5
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.3%
0-1 ✓
10.9%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
8.1%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.8%
Aberdeen goals ↓
Motherwell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.5%
3.1%
1.0%
1
9.4%
15%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
5.8%
7.1%
4.4%
1.8%
0.6%
3
2.1%
2.5%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aberdeen goals (down), columns = Motherwell goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Aberdeen
2.57
Celtic
2.50
Dundee
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ross County
2.40
Ayr Utd
2.25
Livingston
2.25
Dundee Utd
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Queen's Park
1.80
ST Johnstone
1.80
Airdrie United
1.80
Hibernian
1.80
Partick
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Montrose
1.75
East Fife
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Motherwell
1.71
Morton
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Arbroath
1.00
Kelty Hearts
1.00
Kilmarnock
1.00
Inverness CT
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Dunfermline
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Stirling
0.50
Elgin
0.25
East Kilbride
0.25
Dumbarton
0.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.25
Stranraer
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Edinburgh City
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Aberdeen is 0.86 points better than Motherwell in terms of average points per game (2.57 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
4.25
Dundee
4.00
Queen's Park
3.20
Airdrie United
3.20
Hibernian
3.00
Aberdeen
2.86
Partick
2.75
Falkirk
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ayr Utd
2.25
Clyde
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.20
Dundee Utd
2.00
Ross County
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Spartans
1.33
Livingston
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Peterhead
1.25
Queen of the South
1.25
Dunfermline
1.00
Dumbarton
1.00
Stranraer
1.00
Morton
0.75
Elgin
0.75
Inverness CT
0.75
Cove Rangers
0.75
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.50
Stirling
0.50
Brechin
0.50
East Kilbride
0.50
Arbroath
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Aberdeen is 1.43 goals better than Motherwell in terms of goals scored per game (2.86 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.00
Livingston
0.25
Motherwell
0.71
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Ross County
0.80
ST Mirren
1.00
Aberdeen
1.00
Raith Rovers
1.00
Dundee
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.17
Spartans
1.17
Falkirk
1.17
Queen's Park
1.20
Ayr Utd
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Partick
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Montrose
1.25
East Fife
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.25
ST Johnstone
1.40
Morton
1.50
Celtic
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Inverness CT
1.75
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Airdrie United
2.20
Cove Rangers
2.25
Brechin
2.50
Stranraer
2.50
Stenhousemuir
2.75
Peterhead
2.75
Dumbarton
3.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.25
Elgin
3.50
Edinburgh City
4.00
East Kilbride
4.00
Aberdeen is 0.29 goals worse than Motherwell in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aberdeen
For 5.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 11.0 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
For 4.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 3.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
10.8
11.8
4.1
4.8
3.5
23.5
24.5
22.4
vs Stronger (11)
10.8
9.6
12.2
3.8
4.5
3.0
21.8
21.8
21.8
vs Similar (23)
11.6
11.5
11.7
4.6
5.0
4.1
23.7
23.1
24.6
vs Weaker (16)
11.2
10.4
11.9
3.7
4.6
3.0
24.5
30.6
20.1
% over line
69%
68%
70%
66%
73%
58%
64%
68%
60%
% under line
31%
32%
30%
34%
27%
42%
36%
32%
40%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
10.2
11.9
3.9
3.4
4.3
24.1
24.5
23.8
vs Stronger (7)
12.0
12.0
12.0
3.7
3.2
5.0
21.3
20.5
23.0
vs Similar (40)
10.9
9.7
11.9
4.2
3.7
4.7
24.6
25.6
23.9
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
59%
47%
68%
58%
50%
65%
68%
79%
59%
% under line
41%
53%
32%
42%
50%
35%
32%
21%
41%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.9
Ross County
11.7
Hibernian
11.6
Aberdeen
11.3
Falkirk
11.3
Motherwell
11.2
East Kilbride
11.2
Rangers
11.2
Morton
11.0
Dumbarton
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.8
ST Johnstone
10.6
Kilmarnock
10.6
Airdrie United
10.4
ST Mirren
10.4
Dunfermline
10.3
Dundee
10.3
Stirling
10.3
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Partick
10.2
Arbroath
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Clyde
9.9
Kelty Hearts
9.9
Elgin
9.8
Cove Rangers
9.7
East Fife
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.7
Montrose
9.4
Stenhousemuir
9.3
Forfar
9.2
Stranraer
9.2
Livingston
9.1
Spartans
9.1
Edinburgh City
9.1
Peterhead
8.9
Inverness CT
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
6.5
Peterhead
5.2
Hamilton Academical
5.0
Morton
5.0
Aberdeen
5.0
Elgin
4.9
Edinburgh City
4.9
Forfar
4.8
Ayr Utd
4.8
Hibernian
4.6
ST Mirren
4.5
Dundee Utd
4.5
Stirling
4.5
Motherwell
4.4
East Fife
4.3
Falkirk
4.3
Clyde
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.2
Heart Of Midlothian
4.2
Partick
4.1
Stranraer
4.1
Spartans
4.0
Rangers
4.0
Livingston
3.9
ST Johnstone
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.7
Dumbarton
3.7
Montrose
3.7
Dundee
3.7
Dunfermline
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Airdrie United
3.5
Kelty Hearts
3.4
Celtic
3.4
Inverness CT
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Arbroath
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Cove Rangers
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
27.7
Forfar
25.2
Peterhead
24.5
Edinburgh City
24.3
Elgin
24.2
Livingston
23.9
Aberdeen
23.8
East Fife
23.6
Motherwell
23.0
Clyde
22.9
Kilmarnock
22.6
Stenhousemuir
22.5
Falkirk
22.5
Heart Of Midlothian
22.5
Morton
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.1
Stirling
21.8
Spartans
21.7
Inverness CT
21.7
Rangers
21.2
ST Mirren
21.2
Dundee Utd
21.2
Ross County
20.6
Stranraer
20.5
Airdrie United
20.5
Hibernian
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Annan Athletic
20.3
Montrose
20.3
Dunfermline
20.1
Dundee
20.1
Kelty Hearts
20.1
Partick
19.9
Arbroath
19.9
Dumbarton
19.6
Cove Rangers
19.5
Celtic
18.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.2%
Under 9.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
70.9%
Under 3.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.9%
Under 21.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aberdeen or Draw✗ Miss
61.6%
Avg Implied -
31%
31%
38%
covers Aberdeen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen or Motherwell✓ Hit
69.2%
Avg Implied -
31%
31%
38%
covers Aberdeen + Motherwell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Motherwell✓ Hit
69.3%
Avg Implied -
31%
31%
38%
covers Draw + Motherwell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.9%
Under
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.2%
Under
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.8%
Under
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aberdeen, so a minus line means Aberdeen give that many goals of a start and Motherwell receive them. At -1, Aberdeen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aberdeen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aberdeen)Actual: Motherwell
Aberdeen -2
3.8%
Draw -2
8.8%
Motherwell +2
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aberdeen)Actual: Motherwell
Aberdeen -1
12.5%
Draw -1
18.2%
Motherwell +1
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aberdeen)Actual: Draw
Aberdeen +1
61.6%
Draw +1
21.1%
Motherwell -1
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aberdeen)Actual: Aberdeen
Aberdeen +2
82.6%
Draw +2
11.5%
Motherwell -2
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.60
0.67
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.14
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.77
0.29
0.57
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.20
1.00
0.50
0.83
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.75
0.75
0.44
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.71
0.89
0.67
0.27
0.73
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.80
0.67
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
2.00
0.25
1.50
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.62
1.14
0.29
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.40
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.39
0.78
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.71
0.89
0.56
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
3.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aberdeen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jesper Karlsson21%
Kevin Nisbet18%
Kenan Bilalovic17%
Toyosi Olusanya12%
Aremu Afeez10%
Marko Lazetić9%
Mitchel Frame9%
Dennis Geiger8%
Adil Aouchiche8%
Liam Morrison7%
Emmanuel Gyamfi7%
Sivert Heltne Nilsen6%
Stuart Armstrong6%
Nicky Devlin6%
Topi Keskinen5%
Dante Polvara4%
Ante Palaversa0%
Dimitar Mitov0%
Tom McIntyre0%
Elvis Bwomono0%
Mats Knoester0%
Graeme Shinnie0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Lyall Cameron0%
Leighton Clarkson0%
Kusini Yengi0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Alexander Jensen0%
Nicolas Milanović0%
Alfie Dorrington0%
Jack Milne0%
Dylan Lobban0%
Kjartan Mar Kjartansson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dennis Geiger42%
Tom McIntyre33%
Liam Morrison29%
Dylan Lobban28%
Sivert Heltne Nilsen25%
Mats Knoester24%
Nicky Devlin23%
Marko Lazetić21%
Graeme Shinnie21%
Adil Aouchiche20%
Emmanuel Gyamfi20%
Ante Palaversa18%
Jesper Karlsson17%
Topi Keskinen15%
Stuart Armstrong15%
Kusini Yengi14%
Kjartan Mar Kjartansson12%
Leighton Clarkson12%
Nicolas Milanović11%
Aremu Afeez10%
Jack Milne10%
Mitchel Frame9%
Kevin Nisbet8%
Lyall Cameron7%
Alexander Jensen6%
Toyosi Olusanya6%
Gavin Molloy6%
Kenan Bilalovic6%
Dimitar Mitov5%
Dante Polvara4%
Elvis Bwomono0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Alfie Dorrington0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stuart Armstrong15%
Toyosi Olusanya12%
Kjartan Mar Kjartansson12%
Topi Keskinen10%
Aremu Afeez10%
Mitchel Frame9%
Dennis Geiger8%
Lyall Cameron7%
Ante Palaversa6%
Graeme Shinnie5%
Marko Lazetić3%
Kevin Nisbet2%
Sivert Heltne Nilsen0%
Dimitar Mitov0%
Tom McIntyre0%
Elvis Bwomono0%
Nicky Devlin0%
Mats Knoester0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Jesper Karlsson0%
Adil Aouchiche0%
Leighton Clarkson0%
Kusini Yengi0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Alexander Jensen0%
Nicolas Milanović0%
Alfie Dorrington0%
Jack Milne0%
Liam Morrison0%
Emmanuel Gyamfi0%
Dylan Lobban0%
Dante Polvara0%
Kenan Bilalovic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jesper Karlsson17%
Adil Aouchiche12%
Kevin Nisbet10%
Dante Polvara9%
Lyall Cameron7%
Toyosi Olusanya6%
Stuart Armstrong6%
Marko Lazetić6%
Jack Milne2%
Dennis Geiger0%
Ante Palaversa0%
Sivert Heltne Nilsen0%
Dimitar Mitov0%
Tom McIntyre0%
Elvis Bwomono0%
Nicky Devlin0%
Mats Knoester0%
Graeme Shinnie0%
Per Kristian Bråtveit0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Leighton Clarkson0%
Kusini Yengi0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Topi Keskinen0%
Alexander Jensen0%
Nicolas Milanović0%
Alfie Dorrington0%
Liam Morrison0%
Emmanuel Gyamfi0%
Dylan Lobban0%
Kjartan Mar Kjartansson0%
Mitchel Frame0%
Kenan Bilalovic0%
Motherwell
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tawanda Maswanhise40%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos26%
Elijah Just20%
Emmanuel Longelo19%
Elliot Watt18%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson11%
Callum Slattery10%
Lukas Fadinger9%
Ibrahim Said8%
Liam Gordon6%
Johnny Koutroumbis4%
Stephen Welsh4%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
Callum Hendry0%
Paul McGinn0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Calum Ward0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Oscar Priestman0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Callum Slattery26%
Elliot Watt21%
Callum Hendry19%
Liam Gordon18%
Emmanuel Longelo17%
Ibrahim Said16%
Paul McGinn12%
Elijah Just11%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson11%
Tom Sparrow11%
Sam Nicholson10%
Lukas Fadinger9%
Regan Charles-Cook8%
Stephen Welsh7%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos5%
Johnny Koutroumbis4%
Oscar Priestman4%
Stephen O'Donnell3%
Tawanda Maswanhise3%
Calum Ward3%
Jordan McGhee0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Eythor Bjørgolfsson22%
Callum Slattery19%
Elijah Just17%
Emmanuel Longelo11%
Tom Sparrow11%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos11%
Elliot Watt9%
Regan Charles-Cook8%
Lukas Fadinger6%
Stephen O'Donnell6%
Tawanda Maswanhise6%
Stephen Welsh4%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Liam Gordon0%
Callum Hendry0%
Paul McGinn0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Calum Ward0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Oscar Priestman0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Elijah Just26%
Tawanda Maswanhise26%
Callum Slattery23%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos16%
Callum Hendry14%
Lukas Fadinger9%
Emmanuel Longelo6%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Elliot Watt0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
Liam Gordon0%
Paul McGinn0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Stephen Welsh0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Calum Ward0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Oscar Priestman0%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Aberdeen's squad is €1m less valuable than Motherwell's (€15m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Aberdeen's attack is €6m less valuable than Motherwell's (€4m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Aberdeen's midfield is €3m more valuable than Motherwell's (€4m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Aberdeen's defence is €2m more valuable than Motherwell's (€7m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
Rangers
Hibernian
Falkirk
Dundee Utd
Dundee
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
Livingston
Partick
Dunfermline
Arbroath