Aberdeen’s recent 3-0 win over Dundee shows a team that can score, yet their average of 0.5 goals at home against stronger opponents and 2.0 conceded highlights defensive fragility. Rangers, on a two-game winning streak, have been prolific away, scoring 1.91 and conceding only 1.36 against weaker sides, suggesting a potent attack that will likely outpace Aberdeen’s defense. The model projects a 50 % chance of an away win, a 25 % chance of a home win and a 25 % chance of a draw, with the away win being the single most likely outcome. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.2 % probability. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5 %, Under 7.5 at 98.2 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.5 % with a 5 % edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.0 % with a 1 % edge, Under 6.5 at 95.2 % with a 1 % edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.1 % with a 3 % edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 92.1 % with a 6 % edge, and Over 19.5 fouls at 90.8 %.
Results analysis
The win extends Rangers’ recent run, while Aberdeen’s form has dipped after a defeat. The final score was 0-1, confirming the model’s prediction of an away win, which it called correctly with a 51% probability. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.9%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.9%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 95.7%, Under 6.5 hit at 95.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 93.5%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 91.8%, and Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 91.8%. The match delivered the predicted outcome and most of the model’s high-probability picks.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aberdeen win✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 4.07
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.65
Betano
4.35
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.20
Dafabet
4.10
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.74
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.95
Betano
3.90
Dafabet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.82
Superbet
3.80
Rangers win✓ Hit
51.0%
Avg Implied 51.7% · @ 1.82
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.87
Betfair
1.85
Dafabet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aberdeen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.43
1.81
0.94
0.64
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.92
1.57
0.43
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.92
1.62
2.43
1.14
1.33
2.17
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
1.23
2.88
1.00
1.69
1.54
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.67
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (25)
2.64
1.16
3.29
1.07
1.82
1.27
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.2%
@ 1.19+5.1%
Under 1.5
15.8%
@ 4.48-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Superbet
4.70
Unibet
4.70
Pinnacle
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.5%
@ 1.64+4.9%
Under 2.5
37.5%
@ 2.23-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
Betfair
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Under
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.28
Unibet
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.3%
@ 2.57+3.7%
Under 3.5
59.7%
@ 1.48-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.70
Pinnacle
2.63
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.1%
@ 1.57+4.1%
No
36.9%
@ 2.27-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.62
William Hil
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
No
Betfair
2.38
Unibet
2.33
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.26
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%@ 6.85+4.4%
1-2
9.6%@ 7.52+3.6%
0-2
7.4%@ 9.44+2.6%
0-1 ✓
6.7%@ 8.26+1.2%
2-1
6.5%@ 12.18+2.8%
2-2
6.2%@ 11.58+2.3%
1-3
6.1%@ 12.20+2.5%
0-0
5.0%@ 12.87+1.5%
Aberdeen goals ↓
Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
6.7%
7.4%
4.7%
2.3%
1
4.2%
11%
9.6%
6.1%
3.0%
2
3.4%
6.5%
6.2%
4.0%
1.9%
3
1.5%
2.8%
2.7%
1.7%
0.8%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aberdeen goals (down), columns = Rangers goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Aberdeen is 0.84 points worse than Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Aberdeen is 0.95 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Aberdeen is 0.32 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.13).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Aberdeen is 9.9 percentage points worse than Rangers in terms of average possession (48% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aberdeen
For 5.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rangers
For 6.1 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 13.1 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.8
9.5
4.0
4.3
3.7
25.3
26.4
24.3
vs Stronger (9)
10.3
12.5
8.6
4.2
6.0
2.8
25.2
25.5
25.0
vs Similar (23)
9.8
10.0
9.5
5.0
5.1
4.8
26.1
27.3
24.6
vs Weaker (18)
10.6
11.3
10.1
2.6
2.3
2.9
24.2
25.2
23.5
% over line
60%
73%
48%
56%
65%
46%
87%
95%
78%
% under line
40%
27%
52%
44%
35%
54%
13%
5%
22%
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.4
10.9
3.7
3.1
4.4
26.2
25.8
26.5
vs Stronger (1)
7.0
-
7.0
1.0
-
1.0
30.0
-
30.0
vs Similar (9)
10.1
10.0
10.3
4.8
3.8
6.0
29.6
28.8
30.7
vs Weaker (40)
10.2
9.2
11.2
3.5
3.0
4.2
25.4
25.2
25.6
% over line
55%
55%
55%
48%
41%
57%
77%
82%
73%
% under line
45%
45%
45%
52%
59%
43%
23%
18%
27%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Celtic
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.1
Rangers
10.1
Aberdeen
10.1
Dundee
9.9
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.4
Motherwell
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Hibernian
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Kilmarnock
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.9
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.3
Motherwell
25.8
Aberdeen
25.5
Falkirk
25.2
Kilmarnock
24.3
Heart Of Midlothian
24.3
Hibernian
23.2
Dundee Utd
22.0
ST Johnstone
22.0
ST Mirren
21.9
Dundee
21.6
Celtic
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.8%
@ 1.62+2.8%
Under 9.5
40.2%
@ 2.15-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Unibet
1.58
Under
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Unibet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.12
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.8%
@ 1.48+6.6%
Under 3.5
31.2%
@ 2.42-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.48
Unibet
1.40
Under
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.32
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.4%
Under 21.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aberdeen or Draw✗ Miss
49.0%
Avg Implied 47.7% · @ 1.97
Edge
+1.3%
25%
24%
51%
covers Aberdeen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.02
SBO
2.00
Superbet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
Aberdeen or Rangers✓ Hit
75.8%
Avg Implied 75.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
+0.2%
25%
24%
51%
covers Aberdeen + Rangers
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Draw or Rangers✓ Hit
75.2%
Avg Implied 76.7% · @ 1.22
Edge
-1.5%
25%
24%
51%
covers Draw + Rangers
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.8%
@ 1.36+4.4%
Under
27.2%
@ 2.94-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.14
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Aberdeen over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.3%
@ 2.77+3.5%
Under
62.7%
@ 1.41-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.84
1xBet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.82
BetVictor
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
Aberdeen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.3%
@ 7.02+1.0%
Under
85.7%
@ 1.07-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.40
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Aberdeen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 18.75-0.8%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.01+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
26.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Rangers over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.4%
@ 1.12+2.5%
Under
14.6%
@ 5.42-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Rangers over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
57.3%
@ 1.69+1.9%
Under
42.7%
@ 2.10-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.75
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
BetVictor
1.70
Under
10Bet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Rangers over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.3%
@ 3.18+0.9%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.32-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.32
BetVictor
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
Under
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Rangers over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.9%
@ 6.84-0.7%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.08+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.95
Marathonbet
6.95
Superbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aberdeen, so a minus line means Aberdeen give that many goals of a start and Rangers receive them. At -1, Aberdeen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aberdeen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aberdeen)Actual: Rangers
Aberdeen -2
3.6%
@ 21.00-0.8%
Draw -2
7.2%
@ 11.25-1.0%
Rangers +2
89.2%
@ 1.05+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Handicap -1 (Aberdeen)Actual: Rangers
Aberdeen -1
10.8%
@ 8.97+0.8%
Draw -1
14.0%
@ 5.86-1.4%
Rangers +1
75.2%
@ 1.21+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Marathonbet
8.80
Unibet
8.00
Draw
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Superbet
5.65
Unibet
5.50
Away
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Handicap +1 (Aberdeen)Actual: Draw
Aberdeen +1
49.0%
@ 1.96+3.2%
Draw +1
21.2%
@ 3.69-3.2%
Rangers -1
29.8%
@ 3.00-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Unibet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Away
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Superbet
2.95
Handicap +2 (Aberdeen)Actual: Aberdeen
Aberdeen +2
70.2%
@ 1.33+2.7%
Draw +2
15.8%
@ 5.15-1.7%
Rangers -2
14.1%
@ 5.97-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Draw
Marathonbet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Away
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Superbet
5.65
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.88
0.56
0.29
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.46
0.57
0.29
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.85
1.29
0.71
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.67
1.29
0.47
0.85
0.92
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.12
0.64
1.36
0.57
0.82
0.73
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
73.3%
@ 1.29+1.0%
Under 0.5
26.7%
@ 3.36-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
William Hil
3.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.2%
@ 2.39-0.8%
Under 1.5
61.8%
@ 1.53+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.48
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
William Hil
2.40
Under
Superbet
1.58
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
William Hil
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 5.58-1.3%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.11+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.7%
@ 2.29+1.1%
Under
58.3%
@ 1.57-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
Superbet
2.25
Under
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 7.56-1.9%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.05+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
7.70
Superbet
7.30
Unibet
7.00
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 27.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
56.3%
@ 1.66+0.2%
Under
43.7%
@ 2.12-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Superbet
1.63
Under
10Bet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.17
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Unibet
2.07
Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
22.6%
@ 4.21+0.6%
Under
77.4%
@ 1.19-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
Unibet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 11.56-1.7%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.03+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
12.50
1xBet
12.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
1xBet
1.04
Unibet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.94
0.38
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
1.00
0.14
0.00
0.83
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.77
1.14
0.43
0.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.57
1.59
0.53
0.85
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.52
0.52
1.93
0.50
1.00
0.55
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.3%
@ 1.17+1.5%
Under 0.5
18.7%
@ 4.60-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Unibet
1.15
Under
Superbet
4.70
Unibet
4.70
Betano
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.3%
@ 1.83-4.6%
Under 1.5
53.7%
@ 1.90+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.6%
@ 3.58-4.4%
Under 2.5
78.4%
@ 1.26+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.75
Superbet
3.65
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Under
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.1%
@ 1.89-1.9%
Under
52.9%
@ 1.81+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.88
Under
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 5.55-3.4%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.11+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.75
1xBet
5.60
Superbet
5.35
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 14.00-3.7%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
63.2%
@ 1.44-1.2%
Under
36.8%
@ 2.61+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.67
1xBet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
27.1%
@ 3.03-3.5%
Under
72.9%
@ 1.33+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.14
Superbet
3.10
Betano
3.00
1xBet
3.00
10Bet
2.90
Under
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 7.60-4.0%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.06+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.90
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.5%
1.03
1xBet
1.04
Unibet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
87.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.7%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.7%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.07
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
85.4%
1.12
Betfair
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Bet365
1.12
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.7%
1.11
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.2%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+5.1%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.3%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Unibet
1.15
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.6%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
77.4%
1.19
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.8%
1.24
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
75.2%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
75.2%
1.21
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.3%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
+1.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.9%
1.33
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.8%
1.36
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
+4.4%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.7%
1.36
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.37
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
70.2%
1.33
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
+2.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aberdeen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
K. Nisbet25%
L. Mayo25%
M. Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
L. Mayo75%
Aremu Afeez50%
Daniel Happe33%
C. Ronan33%
Alexander Briedl33%
Chris Cadden25%
K. Nisbet25%
Toyosi Olusanya25%
M. Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
L. Smith0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Nisbet25%
M. Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
L. Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Happe33%
K. Nisbet25%
M. Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
L. Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Rangers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
L. Shankland33%
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Ryan Don Naderi20%
Ross McCrorie0%
C. Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
B. Godfrey0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
J. Penrice0%
Tochi Chukwuani0%
D. Yokota0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
O. Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
V. Dragojević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dan Neil50%
Dujon Sterling50%
Ross McCrorie33%
V. Dragojević33%
C. Devlin20%
O. Makhanya20%
L. Shankland17%
Emmanuel Fernandez17%
Findlay Curtis17%
Ivor Pandur0%
B. Godfrey0%
J. Penrice0%
Tochi Chukwuani0%
D. Yokota0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ross McCrorie33%
D. Yokota20%
Djeidi Gassama17%
C. Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
B. Godfrey0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
L. Shankland0%
J. Penrice0%
Tochi Chukwuani0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
O. Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
V. Dragojević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Djeidi Gassama33%
V. Dragojević33%
L. Shankland17%
Ross McCrorie0%
C. Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
B. Godfrey0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
J. Penrice0%
Tochi Chukwuani0%
D. Yokota0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
O. Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Aberdeen's squad is €122m less valuable than Rangers's (€15m vs €136m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Aberdeen's attack is €34m less valuable than Rangers's (€4m vs €38m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Aberdeen's midfield is €40m less valuable than Rangers's (€4m vs €44m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Aberdeen's defence is €47m less valuable than Rangers's (€7m vs €54m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Dundee
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Falkirk
Kilmarnock