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Abergavenny Town vs Baglan Dragons Result & Analysis

Date: 18/08/2023
Time: 18:30
Final 2-3
Abergavenny Town
Abergavenny Town
Vs
24%
28%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons
Wales: FAW Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Abergavenny Town win✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons win✓ Hit
47.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Abergavenny TownAbergavenny Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W12L02L10W10W14L02L04L01L12LH·PON03/03A·GOY11/03H·LLA21/03H·YNY24/03H·LLA31/03A·CAR07/04H·BRI22/04A·CAE29/07H·LLA08/08H·AFA11/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.970.871.201.072.73
vs Stronger (9)0.892.001.001.400.752.75
vs Similar (17)0.942.180.881.251.003.00
vs Weaker (4)1.251.000.500.502.001.50
Clean sheet %20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Baglan Dragons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W00D41WA·PON29/07A·CAR08/08A·LLA12/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.000.67--2.000.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)2.000.67--2.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Abergavenny Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.5%
Under 2.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.2%
Under 3.5
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
11.1%
0-0
9.5%
1-2
9.2%
0-2
9.2%
1-0
7.0%
2-1
6.2%
2-2
4.6%
Abergavenny Town goals ↓
Baglan Dragons goals →
01234
09.5%11%9.2%4.6%1.7%
17.0%14%9.2%4.6%1.7%
24.1%6.2%4.6%2.3%0.9%
31.4%2.1%1.5%0.8%0.3%
40.3%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Abergavenny Town goals (down), columns = Baglan Dragons goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Holywell
2.70
Flint Town United
2.60
Airbus UK
2.47
Briton Ferry
2.37
llanelli AFC
2.13
Ammanford AFC
1.90
Mold Alexandra
1.83
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.77
Cambrian & Clydach
1.67
Denbigh Town
1.60
Carmarthen Town
1.57
Afan Lido
1.53
Caerau (Ely)
1.53
Goytre United
1.43
Ruthin Town
1.40
Cwmbran Celtic
1.40
Caersws
1.37
Baglan Dragons
1.37
Guilsfield
1.33
Trefelin
1.27
Gresford Athletic
1.23
Buckley Town
1.20
Llantwit Major
1.17
Pontardawe Town
1.07
Taffs Well
1.07
Llandudno
1.03
Prestatyn Town
0.87
Porthmadog
0.73
Abertillery Bluebirds
0.60
Chirk AAA
0.43
Llanidloes Town
0.30
Abergavenny Town
0.27
Abergavenny Town is 1.10 points worse than Baglan Dragons in terms of average points per game (0.27 vs 1.37).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flint Town United
3.13
Briton Ferry
2.87
Airbus UK
2.80
llanelli AFC
2.67
Holywell
2.63
Denbigh Town
2.33
Cwmbran Celtic
2.30
Afan Lido
2.27
Caerau (Ely)
2.27
Mold Alexandra
2.20
Bangor City 1876 FC
2.07
Caersws
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.00
Cambrian & Clydach
2.00
Llandudno
1.97
Ruthin Town
1.93
Goytre United
1.93
Buckley Town
1.80
Pontardawe Town
1.73
Carmarthen Town
1.67
Guilsfield
1.60
Trefelin
1.57
Gresford Athletic
1.57
Baglan Dragons
1.53
Taffs Well
1.47
Llantwit Major
1.47
Abertillery Bluebirds
1.40
Prestatyn Town
1.30
Porthmadog
1.17
Chirk AAA
1.07
Llanidloes Town
0.83
Abergavenny Town
0.67
Abergavenny Town is 0.87 goals worse than Baglan Dragons in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 1.53).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Holywell
0.57
Airbus UK
0.93
Flint Town United
1.00
Cambrian & Clydach
1.23
Briton Ferry
1.30
Carmarthen Town
1.30
llanelli AFC
1.33
Baglan Dragons
1.37
Ammanford AFC
1.40
Guilsfield
1.53
Taffs Well
1.63
Mold Alexandra
1.67
Caersws
1.73
Ruthin Town
1.73
Llantwit Major
1.80
Gresford Athletic
1.80
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.83
Afan Lido
1.87
Goytre United
1.97
Buckley Town
2.00
Denbigh Town
2.00
Trefelin
2.07
Cwmbran Celtic
2.13
Porthmadog
2.20
Caerau (Ely)
2.27
Pontardawe Town
2.33
Prestatyn Town
2.47
Llandudno
2.67
Chirk AAA
2.73
Abergavenny Town
2.80
Abertillery Bluebirds
3.00
Llanidloes Town
3.53
Abergavenny Town is 1.43 goals worse than Baglan Dragons in terms of goals conceded per game (2.80 vs 1.37).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Abergavenny TownAbergavenny Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D02L10W00D12L00D01L00D01LH·PON03/03A·GOY11/03H·LLA21/03H·YNY24/03H·LLA31/03A·CAR07/04H·BRI22/04A·CAE29/07H·LLA08/08H·AFA11/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.000.270.600.401.40
vs Stronger (9)0.330.890.000.600.751.25
vs Similar (17)0.291.180.380.620.221.67
vs Weaker (4)0.500.500.500.500.500.50
Clean sheet %47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Baglan Dragons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D21WA·PON29/07A·CAR08/08A·LLA12/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.33--1.000.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.000.33--1.000.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Abergavenny Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Abergavenny Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Abergavenny Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Abergavenny Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Abergavenny TownAbergavenny Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L00D00D10W02L02L03L01L11DH·PON03/03A·GOY11/03H·LLA21/03H·YNY24/03H·LLA31/03A·CAR07/04H·BRI22/04A·CAE29/07H·LLA08/08H·AFA11/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.970.600.600.671.33
vs Stronger (9)0.561.111.000.800.001.50
vs Similar (17)0.651.000.500.620.781.33
vs Weaker (4)0.750.500.000.001.501.00
Clean sheet %43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Baglan Dragons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D20WA·PON29/07A·CAR08/08A·LLA12/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.33--1.000.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.000.33--1.000.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Abergavenny Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Abergavenny Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Abergavenny Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Abergavenny Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.8%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.572.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (19)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (7)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (10)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
AT wins
0
Draws
0
BD wins

Head-to-head

Abergavenny Town vs Baglan Dragons · H/A from AT
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Abergavenny TownAbergavenny Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/08/23HAT Vs Afan Lido1-2
08/08/23HAT Vs Llantwit Major0-1
29/07/23ACaerau (Ely) Vs AT4-0
22/04/23HAT Vs Briton Ferry0-2
07/04/23ACarmarthen Town Vs AT4-1
31/03/23HAT Vs llanelli AFC1-0
24/03/23HAT Vs Ynyshir Albions1-0
21/03/23HAT Vs Llantwit Major0-2
11/03/23AGoytre United Vs AT2-1
03/03/23HAT Vs Pontardawe Town2-0

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/08/23ALlantwit Major Vs BD1-4
08/08/23ACarmarthen Town Vs BD0-0
29/07/23APontardawe Town Vs BD1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Abergavenny Town
Abergavenny Town
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.97
HomeWWLLL1.24
AwayWDLLL0.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %27%35%19%
AVG goals3.122.353.94
Over 1.5 %79%65%94%
Over 2.5 %55%35%75%
Over 3.5 %36%24%50%
Scored1.091.061.12
Conceded2.031.292.81
BTTS55%41%69%
Clean Sheet18%29%6%
Corners---
Cards---
Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDW2.33
Home--
AwayWDW2.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%-67%
AVG goals2.67-2.67
Over 1.5 %67%-67%
Over 2.5 %67%-67%
Over 3.5 %33%-33%
Scored2.00-2.00
Conceded0.67-0.67
BTTS67%-67%
Clean Sheet33%-33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1HolywellHolywell3081
87%
2.7
7917+62
3.2
90%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.60.6
-
2Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3078
83%
2.6
9430+64
4.1
93%
80%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.11.0
-
3Airbus UKAirbus UK3074
77%
2.5
8428+56
3.7
93%
80%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.9
-
4Briton FerryBriton Ferry3071
77%
2.4
8639+47
4.2
97%
87%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.91.3
-
5llanelli AFCllanelli AFC3064
67%
2.1
8040+40
4.0
97%
83%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.3
-
6Ammanford AFCAmmanford AFC3057
57%
1.9
6042+18
3.4
77%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra3055
60%
1.8
6650+16
3.9
90%
83%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.7
-
8Bangor City 1876 FCBangor City 1876 FC3053
57%
1.8
6255+7
3.9
90%
87%
63%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.8
-
9Cambrian & ClydachCambrian & Clydach3050
47%
1.7
6037+23
3.2
87%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
10Denbigh TownDenbigh Town3048
50%
1.6
7060+10
4.3
93%
87%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.0
-
11Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town3047
40%
1.6
5039+11
3.0
77%
47%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.3
-
12Afan LidoAfan Lido3046
47%
1.5
6856+12
4.1
93%
80%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.9
-
13Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)3046
47%
1.5
6868+0
4.5
97%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.3
-
14Goytre UnitedGoytre United3043
40%
1.4
5859-1
3.9
87%
77%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.0
-
15Ruthin TownRuthin Town3042
40%
1.4
5852+6
3.7
93%
77%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
16Cwmbran CelticCwmbran Celtic3042
40%
1.4
6964+5
4.4
97%
83%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.1
-
17CaerswsCaersws3041
37%
1.4
6052+8
3.7
93%
83%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.7
-
18Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons3041
37%
1.4
4641+5
2.9
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
19GuilsfieldGuilsfield3040
37%
1.3
4846+2
3.1
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
20TrefelinTrefelin3038
33%
1.3
4762-15
3.6
90%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
21Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic3037
33%
1.2
4754-7
3.4
80%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
22Buckley TownBuckley Town3036
33%
1.2
5460-6
3.8
90%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.0
-
23Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major3035
30%
1.2
4454-10
3.3
73%
70%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
24Taffs WellTaffs Well3032
27%
1.1
4449-5
3.1
87%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
25Pontardawe TownPontardawe Town3032
27%
1.1
5270-18
4.1
90%
77%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.3
-
26LlandudnoLlandudno3031
33%
1.0
5980-21
4.6
97%
93%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.7
-
27Prestatyn TownPrestatyn Town3026
23%
0.9
3974-35
3.8
90%
80%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
28PorthmadogPorthmadog3022
20%
0.7
3566-31
3.4
87%
73%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
29Abertillery BluebirdsAbertillery Bluebirds3018
13%
0.6
4290-48
4.4
93%
73%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.43.0
-
30Chirk AAAChirk AAA3013
10%
0.4
3282-50
3.8
87%
77%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.7
-
31Llanidloes TownLlanidloes Town309
7%
0.3
25106-81
4.4
93%
73%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.83.5
-
32Abergavenny TownAbergavenny Town308
7%
0.3
2084-64
3.5
87%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.8
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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